Severe Thunderstorm Warning 532, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

580 
WWUS52 KGSP 091923
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

SCC001-047-059-092000-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0532.000000T0000Z-120809T2000Z/
ABBEVILLE SC-GREENWOOD SC-LAURENS SC-
323 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
LAURENS...NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD AND NORTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES
UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 322 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DUE
WEST...OR 12 MILES NORTH OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  WARE SHOALS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE
LIGHTNING. TURN OFF ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED
TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A BATH OR SHOWER.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3419 8256 3435 8253 3448 8232 3456 8197
      3444 8191 3422 8214 3420 8233
TIME...MOT...LOC 1923Z 188DEG 9KT 3436 8235

$$

NED

054 
WWUS52 KGSP 091944
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

SCC047-091954-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0532.000000T0000Z-120809T2000Z/
GREENWOOD SC-
344 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3429 8252 3435 8253 3448 8232 3456 8197
      3444 8191 3441 8225 3433 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 188DEG 9KT 3441 8234

$$

SCC001-059-092000-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0532.000000T0000Z-120809T2000Z/
ABBEVILLE SC-LAURENS SC-
344 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
LAURENS AND NORTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 342 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HONEA PATH...OR 16 MILES NORTH
OF ABBEVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL
LAURENS AND NORTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO PRODUCING FREQUENT AND INTENSE
LIGHTNING. TURN OFF ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES. DO NOT USE CORDED
TELEPHONES. DO NOT TAKE A BATH OR SHOWER.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3429 8252 3435 8253 3448 8232 3456 8197
      3444 8191 3441 8225 3433 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 188DEG 9KT 3441 8234

$$

NED

366 
WWUS52 KGSP 091956
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
356 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

SCC001-059-092006-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0532.000000T0000Z-120809T2000Z/
ABBEVILLE SC-LAURENS SC-
356 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LAURENS AND
NORTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 400 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS AREA. 
HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3429 8252 3435 8253 3448 8232 3456 8197
      3444 8191 3441 8225 3433 8234
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 188DEG 9KT 3444 8233

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST LATE FRIDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE ANOTHER FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH TN THIS AFTN. SEVERAL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOPED
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN TN...NE AL...AND NW GA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IN THE
MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. HEATING AND CONVECTION OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA WERE LIMITED EARLY BY CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
QUICKLY REBOUNDING SFC BASED CAPES AT OR ABOVE 3000 J/KG...COMBINED
WITH SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN...AND THE ARRIVAL OF
THE CONVECTION FROM THE SW WARRANT CATEGORICAL POPS IN SW
SECTIONS...RANGING DOWN TO CHC IN THE NW NC PIEDMONT INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. ENTERTAINED THE IDEA OF A SHORT FUSE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE SW MTNS...BUT UPSTREAM RATES NEAR THE GA/AL BORDER
APPEAR TO BE TAPERING OFF SOME. THE MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH IS GRADUALLY
MOISTENING UP TO RELAX THE THETA E LAPSE...BUT PLENTY OF DCAPE/CAPE
IS AVAILABLE OVER THE SE HALF FOR A CONTINUED MICROBURST AND
MARGINAL LARGE HAIL THREAT.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL DAMPEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT
IT MAY STILL PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO KEEP SCT TSRA GOING THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY SCT SHRA OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SWD FROM GREAT LAKES LOW PRES WILL THEN SHARPEN UP WEST OF
THE MTNS THROUGH FRI. 850 MB FLOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE...BUT ALSO VEER A BIT TO CAP LOW LEVEL BULK SHEAR.
THE BEST DEEP LAYER Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL WORK BACK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST TOMORROW AFTN...WITH THE SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NW JUST REACHING THE MTNS TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THE MODEST INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE
LAPSE RATES ALOFT MAKE THE SEVERE THREAT A BIT UNCERTAIN.
HOWEVER...SUCH A WELL FORCED SYSTEM THIS TIME OF YEAR SHOULD
CERTAINTY PRODUCE SOME SEVERE TSTMS...SO THE SLIGHT RISK APPEARS
WELL PLACED FOR DAY 2.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ENTERING THE AREA
FROM THE NW AT 00Z SAT. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT
WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS LAGS TO THE
WEST. THIS WILL KEEP A SOLID THREAT OF AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA FRI
NIGHT WHICH WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO SAT. THE 12Z NAM IS MUCH QUICKER
IN MOVING THE DEEP MOISTURE/PRECIP EASTWARD ON SAT. THE GFS AND GEM
ARE CONSIDERABLY SLOWER/WETTER AS THEY DEVELOP A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE
ON SAT. IN SITUATIONS LIKE THIS...THE SREF USUALLY RESOLVES TO SOME
EXTENT THE DISCONTINUITIES IN THE OPERATIONAL RUNS. HENCE...HAVE
LEANED ON THE SREF FOR POPS/QPF FOR FRI NIGHT AND SAT. THIS YIELDS
LIKELY POPS OVER THE SE UPSTATE INTO THE SOUTHERN NC PIEDMONT...
WITH SCATTERED TYPE POPS WESTWARD TO ABOUT GREENVILLE AND NE/SW FROM
THERE. UPPER TROUGH AXIS FINALLY MOVES THROUGH SAT NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD SWEEP THE REMAINING MOISTURE EASTWARD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON SUN AND PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE
WITH NEAR CLIMO TEMPS...AND CONFORTABLE RH IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM THURSDAY...UPPER FLOW SHOULD BEGIN ESSENTIALLY ZONAL
OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEAK AND THEN GENERALLY REVERT BACK TO A
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND A RIDGE TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS LOOK WILDLY OUT OF PHASE BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK..SO THIS THIS COULD CHANGE. FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...WILL GENERALLY
FOLLOW THE HPC GUIDANCE WHICH USED A BLEND OF THE ECM/GFS/UK MET
EARLY ON...AND THEN A GFS/ECM BLEND LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS BREAKS
DOWN TO SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA ON MON BUT
STILL CONTROLLING THE WEATHER. HENCE...ONLY SOME VERY LOW END POPS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS MON AFTERNOON AND TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE AVERAGE.
LOOKS LIKE A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUE INTO
TUE NIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL RAMP UP POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
THAT. FOR WED AND THU...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE OVER THE AREA
WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS NEAR CLIMO EXPECTED. CAN'T RULE OUT
SOME WIDELY SCT MOUNTAIN CONVECTION...BUT LOW POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...IN SPITE OF ALL THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TODAY...SFC
BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND KCLT HAVE RISEN ABOVE 3000 J/KG ON THE
LATEST LAPS ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS INCREASING FROM THE
SW...AND DEVELOPING OUTFLOWS SHOULD IMPROVE PIEDMONT COVERAGE
THROUGH 21Z. WILL FEATURE TEMPO TSRA FROM 21Z TO 01Z...FOLLOWED BY
VCSH FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PASSES
OVERHEAD. THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SW UPGLIDE FLOW SHOULD
YIELD MVFR CIGS TOWARD DAYBREAK IN LINE WITH THE LATEST MET
GUIDANCE. WILL BRING VCSH BACK MID MORNING...WITH PROB TSRA 16Z TO
18Z WITH THE ARRIVAL OF ADDITIONAL UPPER SUPPORT FROM THE WEST BY
MIDDAY FRI.

ELSEWHERE...AN AREA OF SOLID CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE. ADDITIONAL MTN
RIDGE TOP CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING IN LIGHT SRLY UPSLOPE FLOW...AND
KAVL SHOULD SEE TSRA FIRST BY AROUND 19Z. THE FOOTHILL TAF SITES
WILL EXPERIENCE TEMPO TSRA FROM THE SW...WITH A KAND ARRIVAL AROUND
20Z...AND KGMU TO KGSP BY 21Z. KHKY COVERAGE REMAINS A BIT MORE IN
DOUBT GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING TO THE N AND RELATIVE INSTABILITY
MINIMA NEARBY. WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE ON AN AFTN VCTS THERE. THE
MOIST SRLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS HAS ALSO PRODUCED SOME MVFR CIGS IN
THE UPSTATE...BUT THESE SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SCATTER WITH
MIXING UNTIL THE TSRA ARRIVE. A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY
THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR CIGS EXPECTED IN THE FRENCH BROAD
VALLEY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO FRI WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MORE PROMINENT UPPER TROUGH AND UPSTREAM COLD FRONT.

OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE AREA FRI NIGHT THROUGH
SAT...WITH DRIER HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-101845-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
243 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 85
CORRIDOR. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
AT RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD
RESULT IN LOCATIONS REPEATEDLY AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS. ISOLATED
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT LOCATIONS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
139 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NCZ051-058-091830-
GRAHAM-SWAIN-
139 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN GRAHAM AND WESTERN
SWAIN COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 135 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TAPOCO...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ROBBINSVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FONTANA VILLAGE...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3542 8401 3545 8399 3548 8392 3553 8388
      3553 8383 3554 8380 3555 8379 3547 8371
      3535 8394 3541 8403

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
155 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

NCZ065-091830-
HENDERSON-
155 PM EDT THU AUG 9 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN HENDERSON COUNTY THROUGH
230 PM EDT...

AT 153 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ETOWAH...OR 8 MILES WEST OF
HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  MOUNTAIN HOME...
  FLETCHER...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3544 8263 3543 8258 3544 8255 3542 8254
      3544 8253 3545 8249 3526 8247 3524 8261
      3530 8262 3539 8271 3543 8274 3544 8272
      3545 8264

LANE