Severe Thunderstorm Warning 453, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

807 
WWUS52 KGSP 231834
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
234 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NCC149-161-231915-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0453.000000T0000Z-120723T1915Z/
POLK NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
234 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR RUTHERFORD AND
POLK COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 231 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
SPINDALE...OR NEAR RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FOREST CITY.
  BOSTIC.
  ELLENBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3558 8169 3537 8170 3518 8177 3520 8235
      3538 8228 3539 8226 3540 8227 3552 8222
      3554 8199 3552 8196 3554 8185 3556 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 269DEG 11KT 3534 8193

$$

NED

640 
WWUS52 KGSP 231847
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
247 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NCC149-231857-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0453.000000T0000Z-120723T1915Z/
POLK NC-
247 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR POLK COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3558 8169 3536 8170 3518 8177 3529 8201
      3543 8201 3556 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 269DEG 11KT 3534 8188

$$

NCC161-231915-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0453.000000T0000Z-120723T1915Z/
RUTHERFORD NC-
247 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
RUTHERFORD COUNTY UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 243 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FOREST CITY...OR NEAR
RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BOSTIC.
  ELLENBORO.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF BLOWING DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER
LINES. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3558 8169 3536 8170 3518 8177 3529 8201
      3543 8201 3556 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 269DEG 11KT 3534 8188

$$
LANE

281 
WWUS52 KGSP 231910
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NCC161-231920-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0453.000000T0000Z-120723T1915Z/
RUTHERFORD NC-
310 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 315 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH 
THIS THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE CLEVELAND COUNTY LINE.

LAT...LON 3558 8169 3536 8170 3518 8177 3529 8201
      3543 8201 3556 8183
TIME...MOT...LOC 1910Z 269DEG 11KT 3534 8179

$$
LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
147 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE END OPF THE WORK WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM...SHRA/TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS
EXPECTED THIS AFTN...AND THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM PART OF THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING REVEALS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. MORNING FOG HAS DISSIPATED WITH SURFACE HEATING AND
WILL SOON BE REPLACED WITH CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY AND SOUTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA...WHICH BY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH
CAROLINA AND PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LARGE SCALE LIFT TO AID CONVECTION.
12Z GSO SOUNDING SHOWED THE ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE FROM 600 MB TO THE
SURFACE HAD WARMED WITH A 700MB TEMPERATURE CLOSE TO +10C AND THIS
SHOULD PROVIDE A STRONGER CAP THAN YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...WITH THE
UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVING DURING PEAK HEATING ALL MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF
THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT POP CONFIGURATION OF HIGHER CHANCE TO THE
NORTH AND EAST WITH LOWER CHANCE POPS SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE SEEMS REASONABLE. TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE WARMER THAN ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY FLATTENING AND A BROAD UPPER
TROF MOVING OVER SE CANADA. H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PASS TO THE
NORTH TUES AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE OFFSHORE. FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER LVL PATTERN WILL FLATTEN WITH WEAKER FLOW
ALOFT.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CANADIAN SFC LOW
WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND SHIFT LOW LVL WINDS TO MORE OF A NWLY
TO WLY PREVAILING DIRECTION. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT WILL INCREASE
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40. THE OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL A BIT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSRA WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND DEEP CONVECTION. AN INFLUX OF MARGINALLY
COOLER AIR WILL MAKE INROADS INTO NORTH CAROLINA LATER IN THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH HIGHS BOTH DAYS SHOULD REACH THE MID 90S OVER THE
LOWER TERRAIN AND MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...THE LATEST OP MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A OMEGA
BLOCK SETTING UP ACROSS THE NRN ATL OCEAN. THIS WILL INDUCE AND
DEEPEN ANOTHER EAST COAST TROF AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA BY SAT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE CWFA SAT
THROUGH SUN AND PERHAPS LIFT A LITTLE NORTH ON MON. THE STRONGEST
UPPER FORCING WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...HOWEVER GOOD OVERALL
DYNAMICAL LIFT AND H3 DIV ALONG WITH PLENTY OF LLVL INSTABILITY WILL
BE AVAILABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE DIURNAL TSTMS EACH DAY EXPECT
PERHAPS SUN. NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IS ALSO PROBABLE FRI/SAT NIGHT WITH
THE FROPA LATE FRI AND A REINFORCING S/W PUSHING IN LATE SAT. POPS
WERE MAINTAINED AT NEAR CLIMO...HOWEVER IF THIS PATTERN AND S/W
TIMING PERSISTS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE MODEL RUNS...AN INCREASE IN
POPS WILL BE WARRANTED FOR FRI/SAT. SUN LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY
WITH FAIRLY STRONG HIPRES BUILDING IN...YET THE FRONT WILL BE
SHUNTED JUST TO THE SOUTH...SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE CARRIED
THROUGH THE DAY. MON WILL BE ACTIVE AGAIN AS ANOTHER SHOT OF UPPER
ENERGY ROUNDS THE WRN RIDGE AND TRAVERSES THE REGION. MAX AND MIN
TEMPS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND OR PERHAPS A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FRI/SAT. WITH NW/LY FLOW SETTING UP SUN...EXPECT A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER IN THE MTNS SUN AND PERHAPS EVEN MON. YET...A GOOD DOWNSLOPE
WARMING COMPONENT WILL ENABLE MAXES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OVER THE
NON/MTNS BOTH SUN AND MON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...SCT TSTMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS.
USING THE DISTANCE TIME OF ARRIVAL TOOL IN AWIPS...THE CELL IN
EASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTY WOULD AFFECT THE AIRFIELD AROUND 2015 UTC.
WHILE THAT INDIVIDUAL CELL WILL PROBABLY DIE...MORE STORMS ARE
LIKELY ALONG THE OUTFLOW BNDRY AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER HAS
BEEN ADDED FROM 20-22 UTC. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE WITH THE LEE
TROUGH OVER THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST SURROUNDING
SITES ARE OUT OF THE WSW AND THAT/S WHAT I/LL CARRY AT KCLT. NO CIG
OR VISBY PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

AND ELSEWHERE...SCT TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AS
WELL AS BACK INTO ERN TN. WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL
AIRFIELDS...STARTING EARLIEST AT KAVL AND KHKY...AND A LITTLE LATER
OVER THE UPSTATE AS IT WILL TAKE A COUPLE HOURS FOR OUTFLOW BNDRYS
TO MAKE IT TOWARD THE I-85 CORRIDOR. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE W TO WSW THIS AFTN...WITH KAVL OUT OF THE NW. THE WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE AT TIMES OVER THE UPSTATE AS A WEAK LEE TROUGH IS OVER THAT
AREA. SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KAVL...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANY
SIGNIFICANT CIG OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS OVERNIGHT...UNLESS AN AIRFIELD
HAPPENS TO GET A HEAVY SHRA.

OUTLOOK...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE A LITTLE OVER THE
REGION TUE AND WED AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS INTO THE REGION. NOT
LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS OUTSIDE OF
AREAS THAT SEE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1136 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-241545-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1136 AM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF DAMAGING WIND.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
115 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

NCZ065-509-SCZ003-231800-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HENDERSON-POLK MOUNTAINS-
115 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL HENDERSON...NORTHERN
GREENVILLE AND SOUTHWESTERN POLK COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM EDT...

AT 106 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES WEST OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FLAT ROCK...
  NORTH SALUDA RESERVOIR...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3531 8227 3529 8229 3523 8227 3521 8227
      3509 8238 3525 8261 3530 8262 3542 8253

KRENTZ