Severe Thunderstorm Warning 394, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH OF THE REGION WHILE WEAK BUT
MOIST HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER THIS WEEKEND AND LINGER
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEATHER AND PATTERN MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHRA
ACROSS THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS WITH SCT SHRA DEVELOPING ELSEWHERE.
ONLY ISOLATED TSRA OCCURRING ATTM. INSTABILITY MUCH LOWER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP KEEPING TEMPS DOWN. THIS IS IN
ADDITION TO THE SFC BOUNDARY MOVING TO OUR SOUTH BRINGING IN A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS OVERALL. BEST INSTABILITY AND DCAPE VALUES
ARE CURRENTLY ACROSS NE GA AND THE WRN UPSTATE WHERE LESS PRECIP HAS
FALLEN AND MORE SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MTNS AND DEVELOP ELSEWHERE THRU THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...TSRA COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW
SIDE. BEST CHC FOR TSRA WILL BE OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS WITH BEST CHC OF
SVR ACROSS NE GA AND THE UPSTATE. EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED SVR ATTM.

HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE MTNS REGARDING FLOOD POTENTIAL. THE ATMOS
THERE IS VERY MOIST WITH HIGH PW. THERE HAS BEEN SOME ISOLATED OFF
AND ON HEAVY RAIN OVER THIS AREA. HOWEVER...QPF VALUES HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN MODERATE AT BEST. THERE IS MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FORCING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHORT WAVE MOVING IN AND DIVERGENCE FROM
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. THESE FEATURES WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA. THE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN HIGH ALONG WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL FORCING AS H925 TO H85 VEER TO
E AND SE. HOWEVER...WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WANING QG
FORCING...THE THREAT OF PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED. IN
FACT...HPC HAS BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE QPF GUIDANCE FOR OUR
AREA AND MOVED IT WEST TO THE BETTER FORCING. THEREFORE...WILL NOT
ISSUE A WATCH FOR THE MTNS...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON ANY ISOLATED
FLOOD PROBLEMS.

SHUD BE ANOTHER DAY OF DEVELOPING WIDESPREAD SHRA AND ISOLATED TO
SCT TSRA THU. LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR RAIN...BUT THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE AND QG FORCING REMAIN BETTER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THEREFORE...DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL AREAS.
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE REMAIN LIMITED THU...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SVR STORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK WESTWARD FROM
THE NORTH ATLANTIC DURING THE SHORT TERM...INCREASING HEIGHTS ACRS
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THE SFC HIGH WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE
USUAL BERMUDA HIGH SETUP...KEEPING LLVL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
FCST SNDGS SHOW VERY MOIST PROFILES CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
SOME MID LVL DRYING OCCURS INTO SATURDAY. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON PLENTY OF STRATUS LINGERING WITHIN THE SELY UPSLOPE FLOW ON
FRIDAY...WITH SOME BREAKING UP OF CLOUDS FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY. SBCAPE GENERALLY ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG WITH LOW
DCAPE. SO HIGH POPS CONTINUE WITH LOW SVR THREAT. ON SATURDAY...MORE
MIXING AND CLEARING OF CLOUDS EXPECTED...ALLOWING FOR MORE
INSOLATION...WARMER MAX TEMPS AND HIGHER DCAPE. SBCAPE IS PROGGED
TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON SATURDAY...BUT RIDGING ALOFT MAY LIMIT
COVERAGE SOMEWHAT. SO CONVECTION MAY BE MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...WITH MORE CELLS HAVING POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. QPF DOES NOT LOOK TO BE HEAVY AS UPPER FORCING
BECOMES NEUTRAL. BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS STILL EXPECTED...ESP
ALONG BLUE RIDGE WITH PERSISTENT SELY FLOW. MAX TEMPS STILL A COUPLE
CATEGORIES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY...THEN SHUD BE A CATEGORY OR TWO
WARMER ON SATURDAY...ASSUMING STRATUS SCATTERS OUT. MIN TEMPS BOTH
NIGHTS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER STRATUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 1230 PM TUESDAY...THE CLIMB BACK TO NORMAL MID-JULY TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS BERMUDA HIPRES REESTABLISHES ITSELF.
MODEL RESPONSE REMAINS ROBUST ENUF TO CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE SOLID
MAINLY DIURNAL DEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES. THERE LOOKS TO BE NOMINAL
CHANGE IN THE WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ATOP THE SE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY
AND A TYPICAL MID-SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED...SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID
WITH SMALL AND/OR SLIGHT DIURNAL TSTM POSSIBILITIES. A PERSISTENCE
FCST WILL BE FEATURED FOR TUESDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF IS HINTING AT
AN OHIO VALLEY WEAKNESS DEVELOPING ON DAY 7 WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
MORE MOISTURE TO HEAD UP OUR WAY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD BUT AT THIS
POINT FOR NEXT THURSDAY...PRETTY MUCH A CLIMO FCST IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...A DIFFICULT SITUATION FOR AVIATION CONCERNS
CONTINUES THIS TAF PERIOD. COPIOUS MOISTURE AND NON STOP WEAK
FORCING WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCT TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. FOLLOWING THE NEW TAF TS RULES...HAVE QUITE A BIT OF TS
MENTIONED THRU THE PERIOD. LOW VFR WITH TEMPO VFR THE MAIN IMMEDIATE
CONCERN OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS...WITH PRECIP ON THE DOOR STEP AT KAVL.
HAVE TAKEN CURRENT CONDITIONS INTO EFFECT...AND HAVE MVFR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THEN VFR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN
RESTRICTION THREAT WILL BE CONVECTIVE CELLS THRU EVENING...
AMENDMENTS AS CELLS APPROACH AIR FIELDS. OVERNIGHT...COPIOUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELY TO SLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO MVFR THEN IFR CIGS
WITH GENERALLY MVFR VSBY...IFR AT KAVL. SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA WILL
CONTINUE AS WELL. EXPECT ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CIGS AND
GENERALLY VFR VSBY BY MID MORNING. MVFR CIGS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO
THE END OF THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD SHRA WITH DEVELOPING TSRA LIKELY
AGAIN THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSTMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT RESTRICTIONS IN LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS. MORE SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES...LESS CONVECTION
AND LESS IN THE WAY OF MORNING RESTRICTIONS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
519 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-121000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
519 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY
RAIN...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY...AND
WILL START MOVING NORTH ON FRIDAY. WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA
THIS WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

07

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