Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

245 
WWUS52 KGSP 211350
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
850 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

NCC087-211359-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120121T1415Z/
HAYWOOD NC-
850 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

AT 849 AM...THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAD WEAKENED CROSSING 
HAYWOOD COUNTY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING TO THE WEST 
COULD STILL PRODUCE LOCAL 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS...PEA SIZE 
HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL THROUGH 930 AM.

LAT...LON 3587 8215 3576 8217 3569 8230 3563 8227
      3559 8229 3555 8222 3551 8223 3550 8233
      3546 8238 3547 8242 3544 8253 3542 8254
      3543 8254 3546 8270 3543 8276 3547 8280
      3551 8279 3601 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 276DEG 43KT 3584 8221 3565 8231
          3552 8259

$$

NCC021-115-199-211415-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120121T1415Z/
BUNCOMBE NC-MADISON NC-YANCEY NC-
850 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 915 AM EST
FOR YANCEY...EAST CENTRAL MADISON AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES...

AT 849 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG 
A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES WEST OF CELO TO 4 MILES NORTH OF 
SWANNANOA TO CANDLER...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH 
OF BURNSVILLE TO 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE TO 8 MILES 
SOUTHWEST OF DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO AVERY
CREEK...BLACK MOUNTAIN...BUSICK...SKYLAND AND FAIRVIEW

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND
DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 8215 3576 8217 3569 8230 3563 8227
      3559 8229 3555 8222 3551 8223 3550 8233
      3546 8238 3547 8242 3544 8253 3542 8254
      3543 8254 3546 8270 3543 8276 3547 8280
      3551 8279 3601 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1349Z 276DEG 43KT 3584 8221 3565 8231
          3552 8259

$$

HG

963 
WWUS52 KGSP 211355
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
855 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

NCC021-115-199-211405-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0003.000000T0000Z-120121T1415Z/
BUNCOMBE NC-MADISON NC-YANCEY NC-
855 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR YANCEY...EAST CENTRAL MADISON
AND BUNCOMBE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

AT 855 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT 
THE LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST YANCEY AND EASTERN 
BUNCOMBE COUNTY HAD WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. WIND GUSTS TO 40 
MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE.

LAT...LON 3587 8215 3576 8217 3569 8230 3563 8227
      3559 8229 3555 8222 3551 8223 3550 8233
      3546 8238 3547 8242 3544 8253 3542 8254
      3543 8254 3546 8270 3543 8276 3547 8280
      3551 8279 3601 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1355Z 276DEG 43KT 3583 8212 3564 8222
          3551 8250

$$

HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
705 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. A LOW PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS COAST IN MID WEEK AND
PULL A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 655 AM...MCS/QLCS IS APPROACHING THE NC MTNS ATTM...AND WILL
ENTER THE CWFA AROUND 13Z. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IS NON-ZERO...WITH MIXING OF HIGH MOMENTUM AIR FROM ALOFT
BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER...WITH
THE AIR MASS OVER THIS AREA BEING RELATIVELY STABLE...THIS ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO LOSE SOME OF ITS VIGOR AS IT CROSSES THE MTNS OF EAST
TENN. STILL THINK BY FAR THE GREATEST THREAT WILL EXIST WITH THE
CONVECTIVE SEGMENT NEAR THE ALABAMA/TENN BORDER...AS IT APPROACHES
OUR NORTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES AROUND 15Z. THE MAIN CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST SUITE HAS BEEN TO REFLECT A FASTER ONSET OF CATEGORICAL
POPS...IN LIGHT OF RECENT RADAR TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WAVES OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING...ENHANCED BY LOW-MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER VERY
SHALLOW IN SITU COLD AIR DAMMING. THIS COOL WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO
ERODE RATHER QUICKLY TODAY...AS STRONG SOUTHERLY WARM SECTOR FLOW
DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT. IN
FACT...EROSION ALREADY APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY...IN LIGHT OF THE
STEADILY FALLING PRESSURE WITHIN THE COOL DOME (AS OF 08Z...MANY
LOCATIONS HAVE SEEN A 1 MB DROP IN THE PAST HOUR). THIS CREATES
QUITE THE INTERESTING CONVECTIVE SCENARIO LATER TODAY...AS LATEST
SURFACE OBS SHOW 60S DEWPOINTS AS FAR NORTHEAST AS CTRL GEORGIA.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION ARE ALSO QUITE HIGH FOR THE
TIME OF YEAR...AROUND 6.5 C/KM. THIS IS RESULTING IN WARM SECTOR
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG ACROSS ALABAMA (PER SPC MESOANALYSIS)...
EVEN AT THIS HOUR. IM NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS JUICY AIR WE/LL BE
ABLE TO DRAW INTO OUR AREA LATER TODAY...AS UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
TRENDS...AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL SUGGEST
A FAIRLY EARLY SHOW...WITH FRONTAL BAND/SQUALL LINE SWEEPING ACROSS
THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON.  NEVERTHELESS...
WITH SOME DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE
REALIZED...AND VERY STRONG (ALBEIT LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL) SHEAR...
INGREDIENTS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.
ALTHOUGH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT IN LIGHT
OF THE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WITH DISCRETE CELLS INTERACTING WITH THE
REMNANT WEDGE BOUNDARY.

CONVECTION SHOULD END IN MOST AREAS BY 00Z...AS COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
BACK DOOR ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA...BRINGING A WEDGE OF MUCH COOLER
AIR AND LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DOES NOT COMPLETELY SCOUR. IN FACT...THE FLOW ABOVE THE
WEDGE QUICKLY RETURNS TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO STRONG
HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISS VALLEY. THIS MAY
EVEN RESULT IN SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN LINGERING THROUGH
12Z IN SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE SURFACE COLD ADVECTION...MIN TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM SAT...COLD AIR DAMMING WILL RESULT IN A
CHILLY...DRIZZLY DAY ACROSS THE FA ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY...GENERALLY
HOLDING IN THE 40S IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE SW
NC MTNS AND AREAS ALONG THE TN LINE WHICH WILL SEE SOME DOWNSLOPE
WARMING. LLVL THICKNESSES ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE...AND THE NAM BUFKIT SOUNDING SHOWS A
PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS AT BOONE...BUT NOT AT ASHEVILLE OR
HICKORY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL RIDE ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING...WHICH MEANS THAT THE PCPN THAT FALLS DURING THE COLDEST
PART OF THE EVENT WILL MAINLY BE DRIZZLE. AT THIS TIME...USING A
BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS YIELDS TEMPS JUST A HAIR TOO WARM FOR
FREEZING PCPN. STILL...IF THE MODELS TREND JUST A LITTLE COOLER...A
NARROW BAND OF FREEZING DRIZZLE WOULD BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE SUNDAY MORNING...SOMETHING WE/LL CONTINUE
TO WATCH CLOSELY.

A STRONG TROUGH WILL ROCKET ACROSS THE MID-WEST STATES SUNDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FA MONDAY MORNING. WITH THE
BULK OF THE FORCING LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION...AND WITH SUCH A
RAPID TRANSLATION OF THE TROUGH...QPF SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THE SOUTHWEST NC MTNS COULD SEE AS MUCH AS
AN INCH...WITH LOWER AMOUNTS THE FARTHER EAST ONE GOES. EVEN THOUGH
THE GROUND WILL BE SATURATED IN MANY LOCATIONS...THIS SHOULDN/T BE
ENOUGH PCPN TO CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS. THE COLD AIR DAMMING
IS LIKELY TO HOLD ON ACROSS MOST OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THEREFORE...THE LOW CLOUDS AND
SFC COLD POOL WON/T SCOUR OUT UNTIL THE FLOW TURNS DOWNSLOPE WITH
INCREASING DEEP LAYER COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COUPLED
WITH THE UNFAVORABLE TIME OF DAY OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY TSTM ACTIVITY IN OUR FA.

THE WEATHER WILL BE MUCH NICER MONDAY AFTN WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE SFC RIDGE THAT BUILDS INTO THE SE STATES
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SWINGS NE MON NIGHT
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER OUR FCST
AREA TUE AND WED. AS A RESULT...DRY WEATHER WITH MILD TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A RATHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL
THROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO DIG SOUTH ACROSS THE S ROCKIES
AND DEEPEN OVER S TEXAS WEDNESDAY BEFORE CUTTING OFF OVER THE RIO
GRANDE AREA THU-FRI. THIS WILL SPAWN A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NW GULF WHICH WILL HEAD THIS WAY AND PUSH DEEP MOISTURE AND RAIN
SHOWERS UP OVER THE REGION LATE WED AND THU...BEFORE A FRONT TRACKS
THRU THE CWA FRI NIGHT-EARLY SAT. SO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SAT. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY FOR QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL BE DECENT
LLVL WIND SHEAR THU-THU NIGHT BUT H85 WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL
AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST SO NO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE (EXCEPT KAVL)...ALL SITES CONTINUE TO REPORT
IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING...WITH KHKY IN AND OUT OF VLIFR.
THE COOL AIR WEDGE THAT IS HOLDING THE LOW CIGS/VISBYS IN PLACE IS
GRADUALLY ERODING FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST. KCLT AND KAND WILL BE THE
FIRST SITES TO LOSE THE VERY LOW CIGS AND FOG (PROBABLY AROUND
15Z)...BUT IMPROVEMENT TO IFR IS ALL THAT IS EXPECTED UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA...FIRST REACHING KHKY AROUND 15Z OR SO...THE UPSTATE
SC TERMINALS AROUND 16Z...AND KCLT AROUND 18Z OR SO. I HAVE OPTED
NOT TO INCLUDE AN ACTUAL MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM...MAINLY DUE TO
TIMING CONCERNS...BUT MOST TERMINALS WILL LIKELY NEED AT LEAST
TEMPO/S FOR THUNDER AT SOME POINT. VERY GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
THE STORMS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...TURNING WINDS
TO THE NORTHEAST. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN...SO LOW CLOUDS (AT LEAST MVFR) WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

AT KAVL...PERIODS OF IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. BY AROUND 15Z...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINAL...AND A TEMPO FOR TS AND IFR
VISBY HAS BEEN INCLUDED THEN. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH LOW CIGS (MAINLY MVFR) SHOULD LINGER
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...THE COLD FRONT SETTLES IN JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH
MOISTURE REMAINING ACRS THE REGION. SO LOW CIGS/POSSIBLY DRIZZLE/-RA
MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
MONDAY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP AND RESTRICTIONS.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE BY TUESDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...JOH
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-221115-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
602 AM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THE LINE WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE
EASTWARD... ACROSS THE REST OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE AS WELL.

THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER... AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. HOWEVER...
THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES... ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE I-85 CORRIDOR OF GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS...
ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LINE OF STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS
TODAY. LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING IS POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY IN THE
LARGER METRO AREAS OF THE UPSTATE... NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. DISPATCHERS PLEASE BE SURE COUNTY
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ARE MADE AWARE OF THIS INFORMATION.

MCAVOY