Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

555 
WWUS52 KGSP 010545
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
145 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCC025-159-010555-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0246.000000T0000Z-120701T0630Z/
CABARRUS NC-ROWAN NC-
145 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN AND
NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3539 8036 3542 8057 3560 8055
      3561 8023 3558 8020 3555 8020 3552 8018
      3550 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 0545Z 274DEG 14KT 3549 8036

$$

ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
954 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CAUSING A HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY...ENDING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHT THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF MID EVENING...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND FAILED TO
GENERATE NEW CELLS AS IT MOVED OFF THE BLUE RIDGE OVER THE NRN
FOOTHILLS. CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS INCREASING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO COOL. WILL NOT RULE OUT MORE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NRN TIER...IF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE VA PIEDMONT CAN MANAGE TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWEST. NO
CHANGE TO MIN TEMPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT.

REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUNDAY...THE POTENTIAL OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION HAS BEEN TRENDING
GREATER IN THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT THE LFC COULD BE REACHED OVER THE MTNS AND FOOTHILLS BY 21Z.
ALL THREE SOLUTIONS INDICATE A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER
THE MTNS AND EXPANDING EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. H5 RIDGE CENTER
SLIDES SOUTH...POSSIBLY ALLOWING A WEAK VORT MAX TO RIPPLE ACROSS
THE CWA. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPS MAY DROP A COUPLE OF
DEGREES...RESULTING IN H9 TO H7 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 10C. CAPE
VALUES MAY EXCEED 3000 J/KG WITH SWEAT ABOVE 400. WBZ WILL REMAIN
HIGH AROUND 11.5 TO 12 KFT. HOWEVER...THE HIGH CAPE...STEEP LAPSE
RATES...AND HIGH EQLV SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERAL SVR HAIL EVENTS. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INVERTED V PROFILE WITH SFC
DELTA THETA-E BETWEEN 25 TO 30...SUPPORTING SEVERE DOWNBURST. WE
WILL HIGHLIGHT HAIL AND WIND IN THE HWO.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD VERIFY SLIGHTLY LESS THAN TODAY WITH
DEWPOINTS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER. HI VALUES SHOULD REACH 105 TO 109
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN I-40 CORRIDOR. WE
HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON UNTIL 8PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM SATURDAY...THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FORCING WILL
BEGIN TO DIMINISH MON AS CONTINUOUS UPPER ENERGY CHIPS AWAY AT THE
H593 HIGH. SFC MIXING WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH OUTSIDE THE
MTNS...ABOUT 8-10 KFT MON AND TUE...WHICH WILL KEEP ANY CONVECTIVE
THREAT LOW END OR ISOL...HOWEVER THE NC MTNS WILL BE AIDED BY
INCREASING MECHANICAL LIFT...SO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
ADVERTISED THERE EACH AFTERNOON. SOME MODEST SBCAPE WILL MATERIALIZE
EACH DAY AND WITH PERIODS OF DPVA ENHANCEMENT...SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. MAINLY A LARGE HAIL AND LIGHTNING
THREAT AS THE MID LEVELS LOOK TO MOISTEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY...YET THE
HIGH BASES AND DCAPE MAY PERMIT A FEW WET OR EVEN DRY MICROBURST
STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESP OUTSIDE THE MTNS. MAX TEMPS WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL MON AND LIKELY AROUND 100 DEGREES OUTSIDE THE MTNS
AND SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR. A SLIGHT COOL DOWN BY A COUPLE
DEGREES IS IN STORE FOR TUE AS DYNAMICAL PARCEL HEATING IS REDUCED
WITH THE WANING SUBSIDENCE PATTERN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...THE LONG RANGE PATTERN PROVIDES A RELATIVE RELIEF
TO THE RECENT HIGH TEMPS. HOWEVER...MAXES WILL STILL MAKE INTO THE
LOWER 90S NON/MTNS AS THE UPPER RIDGE TRANSITIONS INTO A BROAD EAST
COAST TROF. LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS SUBSIDENCE REMAINS
A KEY PLAYER AND WINDS MAINTAIN A STRONG WESTERLY COMPONENT. A
COULPE RATHER STOUT LOOKING VORT MAXES WILL ROUND THE WRN RIDGE AND
REACH THE FA BOTH WED AND THU AFTERNOONS...WHICH WILL MAXIMIXE THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EACH AFTERNOON. POPS WERE THUS ADJ UP A
LITTLE...YET OVERALL A NEAR CLIMO POP REGIME SHOULD BE IN PLACE.
MAINLY LOW END CHANCE ACROSS THE MTNS AND SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE
EACH DAY. WITH THE LLVL W/LY FLOW...MAXES WILL STILL REACH A FEW
CATS ABOVE ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU...M90S NON/MTNS...AND A COUPLE
DEGREES COOLER FRI/SAT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME POINTS OF FAILURE IN THIS FORECAST THOUGH.
THIS EVENING...DEEP CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY AROUND KAVL.
BETTER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN OVER THE PIEDMONT OF VA...BUT
OUTFLOWS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED LIKE LAST EVENING. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SUNSET...AND WILL CONTINUE VARIABLE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THERE SHOULD BE SOME THICKER VALLEY FOG IN THE
LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY AROUND FRANKLIN. AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
MOISTEN AND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT KAVL...BUT HAVE ELECTED TO
KEEP IT OUT FOR NOW. ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONVECTIVE
INITIATION LATE IN THE DAY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LEFT PRECIP
MENTION OUT OF KAVL FOR THIS ISSUANCE BUT TSTMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR
THERE BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THINK THE STORMS WILL NOT MOVE
OFF THE BLUE RIDGE UNTIL AROUND SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...GRADUAL INCREASE IN AIR MASS MOISTURE AND CHANGES IN
STEERING FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN TSRA POTENTIAL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...HOT AIRMASS WILL LINGER INTO NEXT
WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY THAN ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD STILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON RH VALUES BELOW THE
CRITICAL 25 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA. FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH FFC...WILL POST A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR STEPHENS THROUGH ELBERT COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JUNE 30TH 95 IN 1952
JULY 1ST  96 IN 1954
JULY 2ND  93 IN 1970
JULY 3RD  93 IN 1970

GSP
JUNE 30TH 100 IN 1959
JULY 1ST   99 IN 1970
JULY 2ND  101 IN 1954
JULY 3RD   99 IN 1931

CLT
JUNE 30TH 102 IN 1959
JULY 1ST   99 IN 1954
JULY 2ND  101 IN 1931
JULY 3RD   99 IN 1970

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR SCZ001-004>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...NED/PM
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...PM
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
924 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ001-004>014-019-
020130-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
924 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW POCKETS OF ENERGY TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. WITH STRONG HEATING AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

A MAJOR HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD REACH OR
EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL
LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN MOST LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ002-003-020130-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
924 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH
SUNDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW POCKETS OF ENERGY TO CROSS THE REGION
DURING THE DAY. WITH STRONG HEATING AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
745 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

NCZ048-049-053-505-010030-
BUNCOMBE-MADISON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-YANCEY-
745 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN MADISON...NORTHEASTERN
BUNCOMBE...SOUTHERN YANCEY AND WESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 830
PM EDT...

AT 740 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MARS HILL...OR 8 MILES EAST OF MARSHALL...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  BARNARDSVILLE...
  BUSICK...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3586 8214 3582 8214 3585 8209 3585 8202
      3561 8207 3573 8264 3591 8260

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
120 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

NCZ057-072-010600-
CABARRUS-ROWAN-
120 AM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CABARRUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES THROUGH 200 AM EDT...

AT 118 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROCKWELL...OR 9 MILES
NORTHEAST OF CONCORD...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ROCKWELL...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3538 8037 3542 8060 3560 8057
      3558 8020 3555 8020 3554 8019 3552 8018
      3550 8018

ARK