Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

102 
WWUS52 KGSP 211924
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

NCC089-212000-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-120621T2000Z/
HENDERSON NC-
324 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL
HENDERSON COUNTY UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

AT 321 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
MOUNTAIN HOME...OR 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF HENDERSONVILLE...MOVING NORTH
AT 5 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  FLETCHER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3536 8234 3523 8250 3536 8266 3544 8255
      3543 8254 3542 8254 3543 8253 3544 8253
      3545 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 183DEG 4KT 3540 8255

$$

RWH

655 
WWUS52 KGSP 211943
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
343 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

NCC089-211954-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0217.000000T0000Z-120621T2000Z/
HENDERSON NC-
343 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LEVELS.

LAT...LON 3536 8234 3523 8250 3536 8266 3544 8255
      3543 8254 3542 8254 3543 8253 3544 8253
      3545 8246
TIME...MOT...LOC 1944Z 183DEG 4KT 3542 8255

$$

RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING WEAK COOL FRONT ON
FRIDAY WHICH WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ANOTHER COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PASS THROUGH
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM...WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE OVER
THE NC MOUNTAINS WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY WESTERN UPSTATE. STEERING
FLOW IS QUITE WEAK SO THE MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WHERE CELLS PERSIST. HAVE INCREASED
POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN UPSTATE IN DEFERENCE TO CURRENT ISOLATED
CONVECTION. ALSO...SAT LOOP SEEMS TO INDICATE SOME SORT OF UPPER
IMPULSE LIFTING NORTH THROUGH EASTERN GA. THIS FEATURE MAY TRIGGER
SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE WESTERN UPSTATE
AND NE GA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HENCE...HAVE
INCREASED POPS INTO THE SCATTERED RANGE FOR A FEW HOURS THERE.
MODELS INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION WILL HANG ON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...SO WILL WILL ONLY GRADUALLY
BACK OFF OF WIDELY SCT POPS AFTER 00Z. AFTERWARD...THE OVERNIGHT
(AFT 04Z) SHOULD BE DRY.

THE UPPER RIDGE HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH MOVED EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES. THE TREND ACROSS THE SE
STATES WILL BE FOR LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS THROUGH FRI AS THE SHORT
WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
REACH THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE FRI MORNING AND MOVE INTO THE PIEDMONT
AREAS BY LATE DAY. THE LOWERING UPPER HEIGHTS...WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SCT TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. CAPES ARE FORECAST TO BE QUITE ROBUST...
PROBABLY IN THE 1500-2500J RANGE...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WILL BE LESS
THAN 20KT. HENCE...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT FOR CONVECTION TO GET
ORGANIZED. HOWEVER WITH THE STRONG BUYANCY...A FEW WET MICROBURSTS
CAN'T BE RULED OUT. SPC HAS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA OUTLOOKED WITH
A 5% PROBABLILTY OF SEVERE STORMS FRI AFTERNOON WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE. USED A MOS BLEND FOR TEMPS WHICH ADVERTISES ANOTHER HOT
DAY WITH LOW TO MID 90S OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS...AND MID 80S
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 1430 EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OFF THE EAST
COAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A SHORTWAVE WIL MOVE THROUGH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHILE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR
AREA. THIS FRONT STALL NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FROM
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...BECOMING QUITE DIFFUSE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK
MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO MOVE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS FROM THE
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS RATHER
SHALLOW...WITH LIMITED LIFT...SUPPORTING SMALL POPS THAT WILL BE AT
A MAXIMUM DURING DAYTIME HEATING. POPS WILL BE GREATEST NEAREST THE
BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND TAKES ON MORE OF AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES
SLOWLY OFF THE COAST AND HEIGHT RISE AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST
FROM THE PLAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM THURSDAY...MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BUMP BACK UPWARD A FEW
DEG F ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK COOL FRONT APPROACHING WITHIN
THE BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH. A TOKEN ISOLATED DIURNAL POP WILL BE
MAINTAINED. THE CONSENSUS...WHICH GIVES PROPS TO THE LATEST AND
PREVIOUS RUNS OF ECMWF ENS/GEFS MEAN...PUSHES MORE OF A CONTINENTAL
AIRMASS OUR WAY FOR TUESDAY. WILL PLAN ON DROPPING MAXES BACK TOWARD
CLIMO AND FCST A DIURNAL POP BELOW EVEN SLIGHT CHANCE. GIVEN
QUESTIONABLE AMOUNTS OF RETURN MOISTURE...WILL PLAN ON A PERSISTENCE
NEAR CLIMO TEMPERATURE FCST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAILY
SHOWER/TSTM CHANCES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU TAF PERIOD WITH JUST SCT-BKN
CU AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON. MAINLY SKC OVERNIGHT THEN SCT CU
DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY FRI. LOOKS LIKE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT IS
MINIMAL THIS AFTERNOON PER MESO MODEL FORECASTS WITH WARM MID LEVELS
OF ATMOSPHERE INHIBITING STRONG UPDRAFTS..

ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY VFR WITH SCT-BKN CU AROUND 5KT. WIDELY SCT
SHRA WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF KGSP/KGMU UNTIL ABOUT 21Z WITH PSBL
TSRA VCNTY KAVL. SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT KAVL AROUND SR ON FRI.

OUTLOOK...A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA WILL INCREASE
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT ALL TAF SITES FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL REAMIN IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A FOCUS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENIGN
THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING IN
THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...LG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
352 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>003-
220800-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
352 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS INTO EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
220800-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-
LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
352 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.