Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

627 
WWUS52 KGSP 131723
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
123 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

NCC021-089-131733-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-120613T1800Z/
BUNCOMBE NC-HENDERSON NC-
123 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN HENDERSON AND
SOUTHEASTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THESE 
COUNTIES. 

LAT...LON 3543 8199 3530 8226 3536 8229 3539 8226
      3544 8228 3547 8226 3547 8224 3552 8222
      3553 8217 3556 8224 3558 8227 3562 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 302DEG 5KT 3545 8217

$$

NCC111-149-161-131800-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-120613T1800Z/
MCDOWELL NC-POLK NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
123 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL
RUTHERFORD...NORTH CENTRAL POLK AND SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES
UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 122 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE
LURE...OR 13 MILES NORTHWEST OF RUTHERFORDTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF NORTH
CENTRAL POLK...SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL AND WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD
COUNTIES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 8199 3530 8226 3536 8229 3539 8226
      3544 8228 3547 8226 3547 8224 3552 8222
      3553 8217 3556 8224 3558 8227 3562 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 302DEG 5KT 3545 8217

$$

RWH

240 
WWUS52 KGSP 131754
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

NCC111-149-161-131804-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-120613T1800Z/
MCDOWELL NC-POLK NC-RUTHERFORD NC-
154 PM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL RUTHERFORD...
NORTH CENTRAL POLK AND SOUTHWESTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT
200 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LIMITS.

LAT...LON 3543 8199 3530 8226 3536 8229 3539 8226
      3544 8228 3547 8226 3547 8224 3552 8222
      3553 8217 3556 8224 3558 8227 3562 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 302DEG 5KT 3543 8213

$$

RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
943 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 930 AM WED...ALL HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT SCATTERED
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. I AM A
LITTLE CONCERNED THAT CONVECTION MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING
AS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW VEERS TO WEAKLY UPSLOPE. ALL MODELS SHOW SOME
RESPONSE AFTER 00Z. BLENDED THE ND5 POPS INTO CURRENT FORECAST WHICH
PUSHES THE FORECAST IN THE DIRECTION DESCRIBED. MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS BASED ON LATEST LAV.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NC MTNS THIS MORNING. WHILE THE
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NE ACROSS THE REGION...IMPLYING A FRONTAL
PASSAGE...THE 1000-850 THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT THE TRUE DEEP LAYER
FRONT WILL NOT MAKE IT ACROSS THE MTNS. AS A RESULT...THE LOW LEVEL
AIRMASS NEVER DRIES OUT AND THE NAM POOLS DEWPOINTS UP AROUND 70
DEGREES OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT LATER TODAY. THIS YIELDS
SOME IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTN AND
WELL INTO THE EVENING. A STRONGER SURGE OF COOLER AIR...AN ACTUAL
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...WILL THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WRN NC
ZONES THIS EVENING...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE FA OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL GENERATE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MOST OF
THE NIGHT. THE FORCING ALOFT WILL BE QUITE WEAK AS AN H5 RIDGE NOSES
INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO YIELD CONSIDERABLE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
DRYING.

DESPITE THE WEAK FORCING...ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER ALL
BUT THE NRN TIER OF THE FA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. COVERAGE WILL BE
A LITTLE BETTER ACROSS THE SRN NC MTNS...AND THE MTNS AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS OF SC AND NE GA. THE SPC 4KM WRF-NMM AND OUR LOCAL
WORKSTATION WRF DEVELOP CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY...THOUGH THEY KEEP THE REST OF THE FA DRY. THE OPERATIONAL
NAM HAS BETTER COVERAGE OUTSIDE THE MTNS...LATE THIS AFTN AND
EVENING...THOUGH THIS SEEMS OVERDONE. WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT...A FEW
OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE AGAIN TODAY AND
THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE THAT SFC HIGH CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL BUILD SW
ACROSS THE CWA. H85 WINDS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL
REMAIN NE THROUGH THE DAY. LLVL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO POOL ACROSS
THE WESTERN NC MTNS...IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
TN. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN NC MTNS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WEAKLY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SUPPORTING WIDELY
SCATTERED SHRA AND ISO TSRA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 80 TO MID 80S EAST.

H5 RIDGING WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THURSDAY NIGHT
AS A LARGE CLOSED LOW REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE
SFC...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGE NE TO SW ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A DRY AND MILD NE
LLVL FLOW ACROSS FORECAST AREA. I WILL INDICATE NO MENTIONABLE POPS.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U50S ACROSS THE MTNS TO MID
60S EAST.

ON FRIDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN COMPARABLE TO THURSDAY.
EXPECTING DIURNAL WEAK INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS. I WILL
FORECAST SCHC ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO CHC POPS ALONG THE RIDGES.
DESPITE RISING HEIGHTS WITHIN THE MID LEVELS...NE LLVL FLOW SHOULD
KEEP THICKNESSES LIMITED. I WILL FORECAST U70S ACROSS THE VALLEYS TO
L80S EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXTENDED RANGE
MODELS INDICATE THAT RIDGING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MIDDLE CONUS AS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LOW GRADUALLY RETROGRADES TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN RIDGED ALONG AND EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
WEAK DIURNAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WEAK S/W COULD ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND TRACK SOUTH ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH UNCERTAIN
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. I WILL INDICATE SCHC TO HIGH ELEVATION CHC
POPS FOR SHRA AND TSRA EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 3 TO 4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CLOSE TO NORMAL MON AND TUES.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH THEY MAY
VEER AROUND ALMOST TO DUE EAST FOR A WHILE IN THE LATE AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING. A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THEY MAY COME TO WITHIN 40 MILES
WEST OR SO OF THE AIRFIELD...BUT I DON/T THINK THEY WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT. STILL...IT/S SOMETHING TO WATCH AS THERE
IS A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY AND EVEN
A SMALL TRIGGER COULD DEVELOP A TSTM.

ELSEWHERE...NE WINDS HAVE BROUGHT A LITTLE DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING. THE CIMSS IFR PROBABILITY PRODUCT IS SHOWING ONLY VERY
LOW PROBABILITIES OF IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE ARE SOME SUSPICIOUS LOOKING AREAS OF DARKER CLOUD ON THE
11-3.9 FOG PRODUCT. HOWEVER...KHKY HAS JUST GONE DOWN TO 3/4SM BR
VV001. CONSIDERING THAT THERE ARE NOT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PER
THE CIMSS PRODUCT...THIS SHOULD BE A SHORT LIVED FOG BANK PASSAGE
AND I/LL ONLY CARRY A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR
FROM 12 TO 13 UTC. BY THE AFTN SCT TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SRN
MTNS AND DRIFT INTO THE FOOTHILLS. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ANY CONVECTIVE WORDING IN THE TAFS...BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO
WATCH OUT FOR.

OUTLOOK...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTNS EACH
DAY...WHICH COULD HAVE SOME AFFECT ON OPERATIONS AT KAVL.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
657 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051>053-057>059-062>065-068>072-082-
507>510-SCZ001>014-019-141100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
657 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN NORTH CAROLINA. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO BE A LITTLE GREATER IN A SMALL AREA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILL LOCATIONS
OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE LATER TODAY AND A COUPLE OF
THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-056-501>506-141100-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
657 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.