Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

573 
WWUS52 KGSP 151722
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
122 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

NCC121-151732-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120315T1800Z/
MITCHELL NC-
122 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3592 8175 3588 8172 3586 8172 3568 8177
      3574 8201 3587 8200 3589 8198 3592 8198
      3592 8196 3593 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 271DEG 20KT 3583 8189

$$

NCC023-111-151800-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120315T1800Z/
MCDOWELL NC-BURKE NC-
122 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHWESTERN
BURKE AND NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

AT 119 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
ASHFORD...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SPRUCE PINE...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF
NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND NORTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...TABLE ROCK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3592 8175 3588 8172 3586 8172 3568 8177
      3574 8201 3587 8200 3589 8198 3592 8198
      3592 8196 3593 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 1722Z 271DEG 20KT 3583 8189

$$

ARK

025 
WWUS52 KGSP 151751
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
151 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

NCC023-111-151801-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0020.000000T0000Z-120315T1800Z/
MCDOWELL NC-BURKE NC-
151 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BURKE AND
NORTHEASTERN MCDOWELL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 200 PM EDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THIS AREA.

LAT...LON 3592 8175 3588 8172 3586 8172 3568 8177
      3574 8201 3587 8200 3589 8198 3592 8198
      3592 8196 3593 8178
TIME...MOT...LOC 1751Z 271DEG 20KT 3583 8169

$$

ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1058 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON SATURDAY AND MOVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE REGION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
DISSIPATING OVER THE SMOKIES. MEANWHILE...A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA
OF CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS IT OOZES
SOUTHEAST OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
TRYING TO OUTPACE THE PLUME OF HIGHER MUCAPE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
HOWEVER...WESTERLY FLOW IS GRADUALLY ADVECTING THIS HIGHER
INSTABILITY EASTWARD WITH TIME. AS STRONG INSOLATION CONTINUES THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY...CONVECTION SHOULD BECOME
REINVIGORATED AND INCREASINGLY ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION SHOULD INITIATE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPE IN THE
1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE ACROSS
THE WESTERN MTNS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MEANWHILE...A LEE TROUGH (AND PERHAPS DEVELOPING COLD POOL
ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CTRL APPS CONVECTION) MAY PROVIDE A
SECONDARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ACROSS THE NC PIEDMONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED TO SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE THERE.
ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS WEAK...ESPECIALLY FOR MARCH...LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL AND DOWNBURSTS. WE WILL THEREFORE TALK UP THE SEVERE POTENTIAL
A LITTLE MORE IN THE HWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 245 AM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. A CHANNELED UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TODAY...THEN SLOW MOVING WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MAINTAIN A FOOTHOLD ON THE CAROLINAS AND GA. THE EASTERN GULF
WILL REMAIN LARGELY CLOSED OFF AS A MOISTURE SOURCE..HOWEVER THE
WESTERN GULF WILL BE OPEN...AND SOME OF THIS MOIST INFLOW WILL REACH
OUR AREA FROM THE WEST...MAINLY EARLY THIS MORNING INTO THE MIDDLE
OF TODAY...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION AT MIDDAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY NARROW WINDOW OF TIME AT MIDDAY WITH
SUBSTANTIAL CAPE...AND A PROFILE THAT IS NEARLY...BUT NOT QUITE
CAPPED. THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS IN
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT AS WARM AS
YESTERDAY... AND CLOSER TO MAY VALUES THAN MARCH. AFTER A RELATIVE
EVENING LULL IN CONVECTION...POPS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES...ALBEIT AT A TIME OF MINIMUM INSTABILITY. THE GREATEST
POPS STILL REMAIN IN THE MOUNTAINS. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE 15
TO 17 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM THURSDAY...A WEAK SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE
SCALE ERN CONUS RIDGING PATTERN WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING IN THE CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO SUPPORT LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SOLID CHC EAST OF THE MTNS. THE INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR APPEAR LIMITED ENOUGH FOR NOT MUCH OF A WIND OR HAIL THREAT.

UPPER RIDGING WILL RETURN BEHIND THE PASSING WAVE ON SATURDAY...BUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER UNDER THE RIDGE AND WEAK SFC WIND
CONVERGENCE OVER THE MTNS AND PIEDMONT MAY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO RUN AT LEAST 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM THURSDAY...UNDER LINGERING RIDGING ALOFT ON SUNDAY...A
WEAK BACKDOOR SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION.
INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DOES NOT DRY OUT VERY MUCH. MAX TEMPS MAY COOL OFF ABOUT A CATEGORY
IN A FEW PLACES.

HIGH PRES WILL BE RESURGENT ACROSS THE EAST MON THROUGH WED AS A
DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CLOSES OFF OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. LOW LEVEL
SELY FLOW INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS COULD PROVIDE FORCING FOR
ISOLATED CONVECTION ON MONDAY. THIS PATTERN LINGERS THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS BECOME INCREASINGLY CAPPED TO
CONVECTION ON TUE...AND ESPECIALLY BY WED. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR...WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS AND GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DO NOT SUPPORT FOG RESTRICTIONS
THIS MORNING. LIGHT S WINDS APPROACH 10 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE GOING
LIGHT AGAIN TONIGHT. AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
W OF KCLT IN THE NC MOUNTAINS...AND CB WILL NOT BE CARRIED IN THE
TAF. THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION INCREASES TONIGHT...BUT IS TOO LOW
TO MENTION. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT FOG FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. OBSERVED RELATIVE HUMIDITY SUPPORTS LEAVING FOG OUT
OF THE TAFS THIS MORNING. CONVECTION CROSSING EAST TN IS TOO
ISOLATED TO CARRY AT KAVL. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. AS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE INCREASE BY MIDDAY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP...MAINLY IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS. AT THAT TIME CB WILL BE CARRIED AT KAVL. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SPREAD EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AS MORE MOISTURE AND A
BETTER DEFINED UPPER SYSTEMS MOVE EAST...BUT CHANCES ARE STILL TOO
LOW TO MENTION RAIN OR CARRY RESTRICTIONS...EVEN AT KAVL. LIGHT
WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SW TODAY...GOING CALM OR VARIABLE
TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE MEMBERS SUPPORT FOG FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

OUTLOOK...GREATER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTN INTO
THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME DRYING POSSIBLE BY MONDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 15...

AVL 81 1967
CLT 86 1967
GSP 88 1967

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 16...

AVL 81 1945
CLT 83 1945
GSP 82 2002

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MARCH 17...

AVL 85 1945
CLT 90 1945
GSP 85 1945

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JDL/JAT
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JAT
CLIMATE...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1056 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-161500-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
1056 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506>510-
SCZ001>014-019-161500-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1056 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
927 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

NCZ051-151415-
SWAIN-
927 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WESTERN SWAIN COUNTY THROUGH
1015 AM EDT...

AT 923 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES EAST OF CADES COVE...OR 16 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF GATLINBURG...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3557 8377 3557 8371 3557 8349 3559 8348
      3556 8341 3535 8358 3537 8360 3544 8359
      3543 8361 3544 8364 3542 8365 3544 8370
      3552 8383

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1135 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

NCZ033-151600-
AVERY-
1135 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTY
THROUGH NOON EDT...

AT 1129 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LINVILLE...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF NEWLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO LINVILLE
  AND GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3605 8175 3596 8181 3598 8187 3600 8189
      3599 8192 3600 8193 3612 8185

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1136 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

NCZ505-506-151600-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
1136 AM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MCDOWELL COUNTY THROUGH
NOON EDT...

AT 1132 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARION...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SUGAR HILL
  AND MARION.

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3569 8197 3556 8205 3568 8219 3574 8212

MCAVOY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1234 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

NCZ033-501-503-151715-
AVERY-BURKE MOUNTAINS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
1234 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AVERY...NORTHWESTERN BURKE AND
NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 115 PM EDT...

AT 1231 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEWLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LINVILLE...
  JONAS RIDGE...
  GLOBE...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3617 8183 3612 8181 3613 8155 3610 8149
      3582 8185 3588 8191 3596 8194 3595 8196
      3592 8196 3601 8205 3607 8207 3619 8197

ARK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1247 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

NCZ050-503>505-151730-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-MITCHELL-
1247 PM EDT THU MAR 15 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN MCDOWELL...NORTHWESTERN
BURKE AND SOUTHEASTERN MITCHELL COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

AT 1244 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTH OF SPRUCE PINE...MOVING EAST AT 10
MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ASHFORD...

DIME SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LAT...LON 3596 8204 3592 8199 3592 8195 3595 8196
      3593 8175 3590 8173 3568 8179 3570 8187
      3577 8193 3574 8199 3579 8217 3581 8214
      3586 8215 3596 8212

ARK