Severe Thunderstorm Warning 198, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

488 
WWUS52 KGSP 312238
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
638 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

NCC003-027-097-312330-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0198.000000T0000Z-120531T2330Z/
ALEXANDER NC-IREDELL NC-CALDWELL NC-
638 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EASTERN
CALDWELL...NORTHWESTERN IREDELL AND ALEXANDER COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM
EDT...

AT 634 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
KINGS CREEK...OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BOOMER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LOVE VALLEY AND 
UNION GROVE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LARGE HAIL CAN CAUSE MAJOR PROPERTY DAMAGE...ESPECIALLY TO VEHICLES. 
DAMAGING WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN SCATTERED TREES AND POWER LINES. SEEK 
SHELTER INSIDE AN INTERIOR ROOM.

TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...OR FLOODING THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED
REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL TOLL FREE...1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2.

&&

LAT...LON 3600 8132 3603 8127 3604 8121 3603 8108
      3607 8098 3606 8085 3580 8087 3584 8115
      3584 8160 3608 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2236Z 216DEG 16KT 3598 8134

$$

NED

067 
WWUS52 KGSP 312250
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
650 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

NCC003-027-097-312258-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0198.000000T0000Z-120531T2330Z/
ALEXANDER NC-IREDELL NC-CALDWELL NC-
650 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN CALDWELL...
NORTHWESTERN IREDELL AND ALEXANDER COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORMS WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LEVELS.  HOWEVER SMALL HAIL IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THESE 
THUNDERSTORMS.

LAT...LON 3600 8132 3603 8127 3604 8121 3603 8108
      3607 8098 3606 8085 3580 8087 3584 8115
      3584 8160 3608 8141
TIME...MOT...LOC 2248Z 216DEG 16KT 3602 8130

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
624 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS
THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTROLS THE WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 540 PM THU...AN ALTO CU FIELD HAS MOVED ACROSS A GOOD BIT OF
THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. I WOULDN/T EXPECT MUCH CONVECTION TO
INITIATE UNDER THE DENSER CLOUD COVER...AND POPS HAVE BEEN PUSHED
BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA. FARTHER TO THE EAST THERE IS
MORE SUN AND A FEW CLOUD-STREETS EVIDENT ON THE VSBL SATELLITE
IMAGERY...BUT CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS IS ISOLATED AT BEST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS A WEAK WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE SW EXPECT WEAK
ELEVATED CAPE THIS AFTN-EARLY EVE. COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING AND
WEAK ELEVATED CAPE...EXPECT ENOUGH FORCING FOR ISOLD SHWRS/TSTMS
LATE AFTN...TO SCT CONVECTION INTO EARLY EVE OVER THE MTNS. CIN
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY AND SHOULD INHIBIT STRONG STORM
DEVELOPMENT. COULD STILL SEE SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT SO HELD ON TO
LOW CHC POPS MTNS...SLIGHT CHC E. WITH MCLDY SKIES OVERNIGHT AND LOW
LVL S FLOW...WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS ABOVE AVG AND A MOS BLEND LOOKED
REASONABLE. AS THE LEADING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT
APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE W TONIGHT AREA BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE...ESP
OVER THE S AND E CWA. CIN DECREASES WHILE CAPE AND SHEAR INCREASE
AND WE HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL TSTM COVERAGE BY EARLY AFTN. THERE
IS A TREAT OF SVR STORMS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A HIGHER CHC ALONG AND
E OF I-77 WHERE BEST UPPER FORCING...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY COINCIDE.
INITIAL SHORTWAVE AND SFC FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE AREA QUICKLY
WITH DECREASING POPS FROM THE W BY LATE AFTN. ANOTHER REINFORCING
SHORTWAVE WILL PASS OVER THE AREA LATE AFTN-EARLY EVE BUT DEEPER
MOISTURE SHOULD BE E OF AREA BY THEN. HELD ON THE HIGHER CHC POPS
FAR E ZONES...TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHC FAR W BY 8PM FRI.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER TROF AXIS REMAINS PROGRESSIVE INTO
THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD AND EASILY SWINGS THE SFC FRONT EAST OF THE
CWFA BY 06Z. STRONG RIDGING AND DRY AIR BUILDS IN QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST AS WELL AND A RAPIDLY DIMINISHING PRECIP EVENT IS EXPECTED.
MODEL SOUNDINGS PICK UP ON THE STRONG H5 SUBSIDENCE AFT 00Z...WHICH
WILL CAP OFF ANY REMAINING SFC BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE ERN
ZONES. SO...POPS WILL BE REDUCED TO LESS THAN SLIGHT BY 06Z WITH NO
THUNDER MENTIONED AFT 03Z-04Z. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM HAS A
TIGHT THETA/E GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE DROP
TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW FRI/S LOWS. SOME MEASURE OF LLVL MOISTURE
CUTTING THROUGH THE WRN RIDGE AXIS WILL REACH THE NC MTNS BY 12Z
SUN...BUT WITH LITTLE DYNO/MECH LIFT...WILL EXPECT ONLY ISOL -SHRA
ACROSS THE SPINE AND NRN NC MTNS THROUGH MID MORNING.

SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO MODIFY SAT AFTERNOON EVEN IN GOOD
INSOLATION. CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A RELATIVELY DEEP LAYERED AIRMASS
EXCHANGE AND AFTERNOON THETA/E RIDGES AT ABOUT 12 K BELOW FRI/S HIGH
VALUES. THE SAME PRETTY MUCH GOES FOR SUN...HOWEVER AN ENHANCING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT WILL ALLOW TEMPS A COUPLE CATS WARMER THAN SAT.
ALL IN ALL A VERY PLEASANT WEEKEND IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND
LOW TD/S. HIGHS SAT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
NON/MTNS AND L70S MTN VALLEYS. HIGHS FOR SUN...LOW TO MID 80S
NON/MTNS AND U70S MTN VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 135 PM THURSDAY...GOOD DYNAMICAL MODEL AGREEMENT IS HAD
WITH THE BLOCKING -NAO PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH THE EXT RANGE. THE
00Z CMC MODEL IS A BIT OF A NRN OUTLIER WITH THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE
ME COAST...BUT OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE IS ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE
EXT RANGE. MON STILL LOOKS MOSTLY DRY WITH SOME INCREASED ULVL
FORCING REACHING THE NC MTNS BY LATE IN THE DAY. MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW...SO NO MORE THAN ISOL -SHRA/TSTMS ARE
ADVERTISED BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE INCOMING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
HANDLED RATHER DIFFERENTLY BTW THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS WRT THE AMOUNT
OF AVAILABLE LLVL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS ACROSS
THE MTNS AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE NON/MTNS. THE OVERALL
HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL DURING THIS TIME...HOWEVER LITTLE DPVA WILL
BE AVAILABLE TO ENHANCE THE LOWER END SBCAPE...YET BULK SHEAR SHOULD
REACH THE 40 KT RANGE BY TUE AFTERNOON. NO SIGFNT SEVERE THREAT IS
HAD AT THIS TIME...BUT THIS WILL BE A SYSTEM TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT GETS SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE CWFA WED AND THE AREA
REMAINS RATHER STABLE THROUGH THU WITH A CP AIRMASS MIXING IN. MAX
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN AROUND NORMAL MON/TUE...AND FALL
TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR WED/THU.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LATE DAY CONVECTION BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE KEEPS THREAT W AND N OF THE TERMINAL SO CHC REMAINS TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN TAF. EXPECT CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND THICKEN BUT
STAY VFR...THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP VSBY VFR AS WELL. WINDS WILL STAY
S...GENERALLY LESS THAN 10KT. SHWR AND TSTM THREAT INCREASES FRI
MRNG WITH -SHRA AND PROB30 IN TAF BY 16Z.

ELSEWHERE EXCEPT KAVL...SIMILAR TRENDS TO KCLT WITH SLIGHTLY EARLIER
START TO SLIGHT CHC POPS THIS AFTN. STRONGER CONVECTION FRI WILL
INITIATE EARLIER THE FARTHER W YOU GO.

AT KAVL...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CHC SHWRS/TSTMS LATE AFTN-EVE...A
LULL OVERNIGHT...THEN MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK. LOOK FOR STRONGER
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP MID-LATE MRNG. S WINDS THRU THE PD.

OUTLOOK...TSTM ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FRI AFTN AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN ANOTHER FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WINESETT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
333 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-011945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
333 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND EXPANDING
OUT INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND
AND LARGE HAIL. ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
435 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

NCZ033-312100-
AVERY-
435 PM EDT THU MAY 31 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN AVERY COUNTY THROUGH
500 PM EDT...

AT 433 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTH OF FINGERVILLE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH
OF RUTHERFORDTON. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAIN
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3628 8189 3621 8190 3620 8188 3620 8185
      3616 8182 3611 8181 3614 8201 3618 8200
      3629 8192 3629 8190

NED