Severe Thunderstorm Warning 162, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

843 
WWUS52 KGSP 022300
SVSGSP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

NCC011-027-022310-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0162.000000T0000Z-120502T2330Z/
AVERY NC-CALDWELL NC-
700 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CALDWELL AND EASTERN
AVERY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE 
LEVELS.

LAT...LON 3616 8182 3612 8181 3613 8168 3602 8147
      3585 8165 3587 8171 3592 8175 3593 8178
      3595 8178 3597 8182 3598 8187 3607 8198
      3619 8185
TIME...MOT...LOC 2300Z 310DEG 7KT 3603 8176

$$

ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
302 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. SMALL AREAS OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL HELP
GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEST CHC OF CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER THE NRN BLUE
RIDGE AND NRN FOOTHILLS. HAVE KEPT CHC POP LIMITED TO THOSE AREAS
WITH ISOLATED OVER THE NC MTNS AND NWRN PIEDMONT. THIS CONVECTION
WILL BE DIURNAL AND END QUICKLY THIS EVENING. A SVR OR STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT INCREASING CIRRUS OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW OVER
LA MOVES NORTH INTO THE MID SOUTH OVERNIGHT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS OVER THE CAROLINAS KEEPING THE LOW TO OUR WEST. SFC RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL KEEPING LOW LEVELS DRY. STILL...VALLEY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE MTNS ALONG WITH RIVER FOG ELSEWHERE.
LOWS WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH INTO KY WITH THE GFS BEING THE FARTHEST
EAST. EVEN THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CAROLINAS.
SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS IN PLACE AS WELL. THE RIDGING KEEPS A DRY AIR
MASS WITH WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS SHUD KEEP
A LID ON CONVECTION OVER MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
MTNS WHERE STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND LOW WILL
BRING QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA. THE COOLEST MID
LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE MTNS AS WELL. THEREFORE...FOLLOWED A
GUIDANCE BLEND AND HAVE CHC POP TN BORDER AND NE GA MTNS WITH
ISOLATED REST OF MTNS AND UPPER SAV RIVER VALLEY. HIGHS SHUD BE A
LITTLE COOLER OVER THE WEST WITH INCREASED CLOUDS AND HIGHER EAST
WITH LESS CLOUDS AND WARMER THICKNESSES WITH THE RIDGING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...NAM AND GFS INDICATE THAT THE H5 RIDGE WILL
ERODE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING A S/W TO RIPPLE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT PROFILE ARE NOT AS UNSTABLE AS EXPECTED...DUE TO A MID LEVEL
INVERSION. AFTERNOON CAPES MAY RANGE AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH A WBZ
LEVEL ABOVE 8 KFT. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE MID S/W...PW/S
OVER AN INCH...AND WEAK INSTABILITY...I WOULD EXPECT SHRA/TSRA
COVERAGE A LITTLE HIGHER THAT MODEL QPF. I WILL FORECAST POPS 30
EAST OF THE MTNS TO 40 ACROSS THE MTNS. HIGHS MAY RANGE FROM AROUND
80 WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO MID TO U80S EAST.

ON SATURDAY...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS MAY SLOWLY RISE FROM THE WEST
THROUGH THE DAY. MID LEVEL INVERSION WARMS A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND
ATMOSPHERE APPEARS LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES WEAKLY UNSTABLE DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL FORECAST CHC POPS ACROSS THE MTNS AND
SCHC EAST. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREE OVER FRIDAY/S
VALUES...WITH MID 80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO AROUND 90 EAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1145 AM WEDNESDAY...I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST. ON SUNDAY...H5 RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RIDGED ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. BROAD
INSTABILITY FIELD AND NW TO SE STEERING FLOW MAY DIRECT STORMS
ACROSS THE MID APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN COVERAGE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE CWA. I WILL KEEP SCHC POPS ACROSS
THE CWA DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE 10 TO 12
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID 80S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS
TO AROUND 90 ACROSS THE UPSTATE AND NE GA.

EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK...A DEEP H5 TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AS A SFC LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID WEST ON MONDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT MAY BACK DOOR ACROSS THE CWA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THAT INSTABILITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAY RANGE FROM 1500 TO
2000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WEAK TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND THE PRESENTS OF A COLD FRONT...WE WILL FORECAST
SOLID CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE WESTERN
NC MTNS. COLD FRONT MAY LIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT AS THE SFC
LOW TRACK EAST ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
MAY PUSH INTO EASTERN TN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...LEAVING THE CWA
WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PW VALUES
MAY APPROACH 1.5 INCHES WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE VALUES. I WILL
MAINTAIN 30 TO 40 POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA. THE SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE AIR MASS...I WILL FORECAST DAY SEVEN 50 TO 30 POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW HIGH BASED CU WILL DEVELOP
THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH CIRRUS CIGS CONTINUING. VERY LITTLE CHANCE
OF TSRA. WIND SHOULD REMAIN S TO SW THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A NORMAL
DIURNAL RANGE TO SPEED. COULD BE A BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN BR/HZ AT
DAYBREAK BUT CHC TOO LOW FOR NOW.

ELSEWHERE...HIGH BASED CU WILL BE MORE COMMON NORTH BUT WILL ALSO
DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH THRU THE AFTERNOON WITH CIRRUS LEVEL CIGS
CONTINUING. TSRA ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN BLUE RIDGE. THESE
SHUD BE SCATTERED OVER THE MTNS AND REMAIN ISOLATED OVER THE
FOOTHILLS/PIEDMONT. LITTLE CHC OVER THE UPSTATE. WIND S TO SW
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A NORMAL DIURNAL TREND IN SPEED. KAVL THE
EXCEPTION WHERE NLY WIND WILL BECOME SLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THU MORN
AND AFTERNOON. COULD BE SOME MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK ALL BUT KGSP
AND KGMU.

OUTLOOK...SCATTERED MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
PROBLEM FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PATCHES OF FOG AND STRATUS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE EACH MORNING AS WELL. APART FROM THAT...MOST OF
THE TIME CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS OVER THE WEEKEND.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND FORECASTED HIGHS WITHIN 3 DEGREES F...

KGSP
MAY 3RD  91F IN 1959...FORECAST 89F
MAY 4TH  90F IN 1901...FORECAST 86F
MAY 5TH  91F IN 1934...FORECAST 90F
MAY 6TH  92F IN 1977...FORECAST 87F

KCLT
MAY 3RD  94F IN 1902...FORECAST 90F
MAY 4TH  92F IN 1959...FORECAST 87F
MAY 5TH  91F IN 1955...FORECAST 90F

KAVL
MAY 3RD  85F IN 1965...FORECAST 84F

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...RWH
CLIMATE...RWH/NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
320 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-501>510-031930-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
320 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. A FEW OF THE
STRONGER STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. THE LOCATIONS THAT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ARE ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ001>014-019-031930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
320 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
113 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     HAIL             2 SW FLETCHER           35.41N 82.53W
05/01/2012  E2.50 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   PUBLIC

            SEVERE HAIL DAMAGE TOTALED AT LEAST ONE VEHICLE. HAIL
            FELL FOR A PERIOD OF 10 MINUTES. NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
            INTERSTATE 26 AND HIGHWAY 25.

&&

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
130 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             3 SSE LAKE LURE         35.39N 82.19W
05/01/2012  E1.75 INCH       POLK               NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DESTROYED CROPS NEAR HIGHWAY 9 JUST SOUTH OF COUNTY LINE.

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
155 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

NCZ033-501-502-021845-
AVERY-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
155 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN CALDWELL AND
SOUTHEASTERN AVERY COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

AT 152 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 2 MILES SOUTH OF GLOBE...OR 9 MILES SOUTH OF
BLOWING ROCK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GLOBE...
  PATTERSON...

SMALL HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3611 8151 3600 8143 3588 8173 3592 8175
      3593 8177 3595 8178 3595 8179 3603 8186
      3613 8171 3613 8155

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0258 PM     HAIL             5 ESE LAKE LURE         35.42N 82.13W
05/01/2012  E1.00 INCH       RUTHERFORD         NC   PUBLIC

&&

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
357 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

NCZ052-064-022045-
HAYWOOD-TRANSYLVANIA-
357 PM EDT WED MAY 2 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN TRANSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

AT 355 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CRUSO...OR 10 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF WAYNESVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE...THEREFORE SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

LAT...LON 3545 8278 3544 8278 3540 8271 3538 8271
      3519 8288 3524 8293 3527 8292 3530 8293
      3532 8297 3536 8299 3540 8304 3551 8286

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 PM EDT WED MAY 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     HAIL             7 NW KINGS CREEK        36.07N 81.47W
05/02/2012  E0.75 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   PUBLIC

            BRIEF HAIL FROM PEA SIZED TO NO LARGER THAN DIME SIZED.
            NO WIND.

0237 PM     HAIL             W GLOBE                 36.04N 81.71W
05/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   PUBLIC

            A PUBLIC REPORT OF QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON GLOBE CREEK
            PLACE RELAYED BY A TRAINED SPOTTER.

0442 PM     HAIL             3 ESE CRUSO             35.40N 82.76W
05/02/2012  E0.88 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            HAIL COVERED THE GROUND AT THE PISGAH INN. MOSTLY SMALL
            HAIL BUT A FEW LARGER PIECES AS LARGE AS A NICKEL.

0437 PM     HAIL             1 S CRUSO               35.40N 82.81W
05/02/2012  E1.00 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   PUBLIC

            CAMPGROUND AT MOTORCYCLE DRIVE HAD LOTS OF HAIL WHICH WAS
            MOSTLY SMALL BUT A FEW PIECES OF HAIL AS LARGE AS A
            QUARTER.

&&

OUTLAW