River Flood Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

957 
WGUS82 KGSP 191321
FLSGSP

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
921 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS 
IN NORTH CAROLINA...


  FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE AFFECTING HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA 
  COUNTIES.

 
.RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS HEAVY RAIN HAS WORKED ITS WAY FURTHER 
DOWNSTREAM THUS...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SLOWLY.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

CAUTION IS URGED WHEN WALKING NEAR RIVER BANKS...KEEP CHILDREN AWAY 
FROM DRAINAGE AREAS AND CULVERTS. 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVER FORECASTS ARE BASED ON OBSERVED AND 
FORECAST RAINFALL. IF ACTUAL RAINFALL VARIES FROM THE FORECAST
VALUES...THE RIVER STAGE WILL VARY ACCORDINGLY.

&&

NCC089-175-191351-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FL.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120921T0120Z/
/BLAN7.1.ER.120919T1436Z.120919T1800Z.120920T1320Z.NO/
921 AM EDT WED SEP 19 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR
  THE FRENCH BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE.
* AT  8:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 15.4 FEET AND DROPPING. 
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.0 FEET. 
* IMPACT...FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE 
HOURS.. AS THE RIVER RECEDES. 

&&
 
LAT...LON 3545 8261 3545 8244 3521 8264 3527 8273 3540 8257

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
757 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS OUR REGION FROM THE WEST REACHING THE
COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK. EXPECT THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO CROSS OUR AREA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 620 PM...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED. THE STRONG LLVL JET AND
WARM CONVEYOR BELT PCPN HAS MOVED WELL EAST OF THE REGION...ENDING
THE THREAT OF FLOODING. THERE IS ONE MINOR GLITCH IN THAT THE FRENCH
BROAD RIVER AT BLANTYRE HAS RISEN A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY THAN
PREDICTED. HOWEVER...THE RIVER APPEARS TO BE LEVELING OFF ABOUT A
FOOT BELOW FLOOD STAGE. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
OTHERWISE...SCATTERED SHRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE TN LINE WITH NW
FLOW...AND ISOLATED SHRA AND TSTM OR TWO WILL END OVER THE PIEDMONT
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HORUS. OVERALL POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THIS
EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION ALONG THE NRN END OF PRE-FRONTAL MOISTURE BOUNDARY IS
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES INTO THE PIEDMONT WHICH WAS WORKED OVER BY THE
EARLIER STRONG STORMS. THE SRN END OF THE LINE IS MAINTAINING ITS
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA NOT AS WORKED OVER. THIS SEGMENT
IS ALSO WHERE A TRIPLE POINT LOW ALONG THE LINE WILL HELP WITH KEEP
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE HIGH. EVEN WITH WEAKENING ACROSS THE NORTH...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE AFTERNOON AS
COVERAGE REMAINS HIGH. A SVR STORM OR TWO IS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE UPSTATE AND NE GA WHERE INSTABILITY IS HIGHER AND SHEAR REMAINS
STRONG. SVR POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS...BUT
SHRA WILL LINGER AS THE POLAR FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. WILL KEEP
THE FFA IN PLACE THRU EXPIRATION AS PRECIP SLOWLY TAPERS OFF AND
SOME FLOODING CONTINUES. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EAST DURING THE
EVENING ENDING THE PRECIP THREAT. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FIRST BOUNDARY WITH WIND SHIFTING SLIGHTLY BEHIND AND SPEEDS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE POLAR
FRONT BUT REMAIN ABOVE CALM. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FOG THIS
EVENING AS WINDS DIMINISH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGER.
HOWEVER...EXPECT ANY FOG OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN AND WINDS KEEP THE ATMOS SLIGHTLY MIXED. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME DENSE MTN VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT WINDS AND
LINGERING CLOUDS SHUD KEEP IT IN THE PATCHY RANGE. LOWS WILL
ACTUALLY BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS CLOUDS AND WINDS KEEP
ATMOS MIXED AND WARM.

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WED...BUT THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH REMAINS TO OUR NORTH KEEPING A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. WITH BREEZY WINDS JUST ABOVE
THE SURFACE WED MORN...EXPECT GUSTY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP AS MIXING
BEGINS BY MID MORNING. THE GUSTS WILL LINGER THRU THE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE DAY. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT
BRIEFLY WED MORN...BUT SHUD RETURN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON AS HEATING ACTS ON LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. EXPECT
THE DRY FCST TO CONTINUE. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM TUESDAY...THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE QUIET...AS DRY
HIGH PRES LINGERS ALONG THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. FCST
SNDGS LOOK STABLE FOR THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY...THE NAM HAS A FINGER OF
LLVL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS RESULTING IN CAPES OVER 1000 J/KG IN
THE MTNS. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TREND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY FRIDAY...AS HEIGHTS RISE ALOFT
AND THE AIR MASS IN PLACE MODERATES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF NOON TUESDAY...THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE EXTENDED IS
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FROPA THIS WEEKEND. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT STILL EXPECTING IT
TO CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AND BE THRU THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE GULF WILL BE CLOSED FOR BUSINESS WITH THIS FRONT...SO
ONLY A CHC POP FOR THE MTNS WITH THE FRONT AND SLGT CHC ELSEWHERE
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN ACRS THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SETTLE ALONG THE EAST COAST ON TUESDAY. THE
CWFA WILL EXPERIENCE FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...THEN BOUNCE BACK A CATEGORY OR SO
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...A LINE OF SHRA WILL PASS NORTH OF KCLT OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN OUT OF THE NW AT LIGHT
SPEEDS BY 0200 UTC...AND GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN NO RESTRICTIVE CIGS OR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...A VFR CLOUD DECK MAY PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS EVENING...INCREASING A LITTLE
OUT OF THE NW AT MOST SITES LATER TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A
PERIOD OF FOG OR SOME PATCHY STRATUS IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
BEFORE THE MIXING STARTS. HOWEVER...MY CONFIDENCE ISN/T HIGH ENOUGH
TO CARRY RESTRICTIONS AT ANY OF THE FOOTHILL OR PIEDMONT SITES. AT
KAVL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING IN LOW CIGS
AS NW FLOW INCREASES. THIS DOES SOMETIMES HAPPEN. I HAVEN/T GONE
VLIFR LIKE THE GUIDANCE HAS...BUT I DO HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF IFR
CIGS STARTING AT 0300 UTC.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK PRODUCING VFR CONDITIONS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
607 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>070-501>510-SCZ001>008-010-011-192215-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
607 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ071-072-082-SCZ009-012>014-019-192215-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-YORK-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
607 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE
WESTERN PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
301 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 S CONCORD             35.36N 80.59W
09/18/2012                   CABARRUS           NC   911 CALL CENTER

            A LARGE TREE LIMB KNOCKED DOWN A POWER LINE ON MORRISON
            ROAD.

&&

DOUTLAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
439 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

NCZ068-070-182115-
CLEVELAND-GASTON-
439 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN GASTON AND SOUTHERN
CLEVELAND COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

AT 435 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SHELBY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  CHERRYVILLE...

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3540 8101 3517 8157 3518 8158 3532 8169
      3542 8151

NED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0246 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 W ANDERSON            34.52N 82.73W
09/18/2012                   ANDERSON           SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ALONG NEW HOPE ROAD BETWEEN COUNTRY MEADOWS
            AND NURSERY LANE. ALSO LIMBS DOWN WITH A FEW OF THEM
            BEING LARGER THAN 2 INCHES DIAMETER EXTENDING EAST
            NORTHEAST FROM THE DOWNED TREE. A GREATER CONCENTRATION
            OF THESE DOWNED LIMBS WERE IN THE GERRAND ROAD AREA. THE
            TIME IS OBTAINED FROM BASE VELOCITY IMAGERY. THE DOWNED
            TREE WAS REPORTED THROUGH COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS AND THE
            OTHER LIMBS WERE REPORTED BY A SPOTTER LOCATED NORTH OF
            THE ANDERSON REGIONAL AIRPORT.

&&

OUTLAW