Lake Wind Advisory 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Habersham County, GA, Hart County, GA, Rabun County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Macon County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
733 PM EST SUN MAR 4 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO MONDAY
FOLLOWED BY DRY HIGH PRESSURE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ALLOWING WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM...THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE SWIFTLY
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM UPSTREAM NOW SPREADING DEEPER MOISTURE BACK
INTO ERN TN. WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE HIGH END ADVISORY
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE NRN MTNS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING GIVEN
THE STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE TROUGH...FAIRLY DEEP FORCING FOR A 6
HOUR WINDOW...AND MOISTURE EXTENDING INTO THE FAVORED SNOW CRYSTAL
GROWTH TEMPERATURES. SREF MEAN QPF VALUES FROM KAVL TO KTNB HAVE
ALSO TICKED UP THROUGH THE DAY TO SUPPORT HIGHER SNOW TOTALS THAN
PREVIOUSLY FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED THIS EVENING
AND THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE ON SCHEDULE. HOWEVER...DEEP
MIXING ALONG WITH COLD ADVECTION WILL PRODUCE LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CONDITIONS AGAIN ON MONDAY...SO A NEW LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE
HOISTED IN AREAS WHERE NO WINTER PRODUCTS ARE IN PLACE.

ON MONDAY MORNING...SOME ISOLD TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS COULD BREAK
CONTAINMENT EAST OF THE MTNS AND SPREAD LIGHT SNOW EWD ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. THIS MAY PROVIDE SOME DRIVE TIME SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY...BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED IN
LOWER TERRAIN AREAS GIVEN THE WARM SOIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM SUNDAY...SHUD BE A QUIET WX PERIOD FOR THE SHORT RANGE.
UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA TUE THEN TO THE COAST ON WED.
AT THE SFC...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NITE THEN TO THE
COAST BY THE END OF THE DAY. THE CENTER MOVES OFF SHORE WED BUT THE
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ORIENTED E-W ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS MON NITE WITH LOWS AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS BECOME SLY TUE AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST.
THICKNESSES WILL HOLD NEARLY STEADY OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS BUT INCREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE MTNS. WITH SUNNY SKIES...EXPECT NEARLY STEADY
HIGHS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS AND INCREASING TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE MTNS. CIRRUS WILL INCREASE TUE NITE
BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED WITH LOWS RISING TO AROUND 5 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. LOW CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH WED AFTERNOON IN
THE DEVELOPING SLY FLOW. HOWEVER THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS RISE TO AS MUCH AS 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL NORTH AND
EAST...BUT REMAIN NEAR NORMAL NE GA/UPSTATE WHERE CLOUDS MOVE IN
FIRST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 2 PM EST SUNDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE THAT AN UPPER TROUGH
WILL BE LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY ON THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER LOW
OVER AZ AND NM. BY FRIDAY THE GFS BECOMES FASTER WITH BOTH ITS
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM...BRINGING THE TROUGH TO THE ATLANTIC
AND THE LOW INTO THE PLAINS. NEITHER MODEL MOVES ITS UPPER LOW VERY
MUCH INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE RIDING DOWNSTREAM DOMINATES THE
SOUTHEAST AS THE EASTERN CANADIAN TROUGH PROGRESSES. HPC PREFERRED A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA ON
THURSDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE OH AND MID MS RIVER
VALLEYS. THE FRONT MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE OH AND MS RIVER VALLEYS
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE FRIDAY...
REACHING SOUTH GA ON SATURDAY. GULF INFLOW...MOISTURE AND POPS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS THE FRONT ON
SATURDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE EAST COAST ON
SUNDAY...WHILE A WAVE ON THE OLD FRONT CROSSES THE GULF STATES.
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER THE FRONT AND THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH WILL
CAUSE CLOUDS TO RETURN LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY OVER NE GA AND UPSTATE SC. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL IN ITS
WAKE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...DEEPER MOISTURE IS STREAMING TOWARD THE
TERMINAL FORECAST AREA ON WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. THIS WILL MEAN MAINLY VFR LEVEL CLOUDS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...EXCEPT MVFR CIGS
LIKELY AT KAVL DURING THE WAVE PASSAGE AFTER 09Z. WILL INCLUDE A
LIGHT SNOW MENTION AT KAVL AND VCSH AT KHKY WITH THE PASSAGE...BUT
JUST MENTION THE CLOUDS FROM KCLT TO THE UPSTATE TAF SITES. WINDS
HAVE DECOUPLED THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD PICK UP IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF COLD ADVECTION. ROBUST GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KT
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MIXING ONCE AGAIN THROUGH MON AFTN.

OUTLOOK...WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. MOISTURE WILL RETURN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THU INTO FRI.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR NCZ035>037-
     051>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>052.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG

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