High Wind Watch 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

787 
WWUS72 KGSP 200844
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012

...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

.A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS JUST AHEAD OF THE PASSING
FRONT WILL BECOME VERY WINDY JUST BEHIND IT AS COLDER AIR SPILLS
INTO THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS INTENSE LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND AND STRENGTHENS THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIDESPREAD
DAMAGING WINDS OVER A LARGE PART OF THE MOUNTAINS AND IMMEDIATELY
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS...WITH ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE OUT ACROSS
THE PIEDMONT OF THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

NCZ033-048>050-053-065-501>510-201700-
/O.UPG.KGSP.HW.A.0003.121221T0000Z-121222T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.HW.W.0002.121221T0000Z-121222T1700Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...
HENDERSONVILLE
344 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON EST SATURDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA
  AND ADJACENT NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS.

* TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TONIGHT JUST BEHIND A PASSING
  COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE
  GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
  NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE ON SATURDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AT
  TIMES.

* IMPACTS...NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES MAY BE KNOCKED
  DOWN...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES. MINOR
  STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. DRIVING MAY BE
  DIFFICULT AND UNSECURED OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE
WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE ADDRESS WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

$$

NCZ052-059-063-064-201700-
/O.UPG.KGSP.HW.A.0003.121221T0000Z-121222T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.HW.W.0002.121221T0000Z-121222T1700Z/
HAYWOOD-NORTHERN JACKSON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA...BREVARD
344 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A HIGH WIND WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
TO NOON EST SATURDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...HAYWOOD...JACKSON...AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES IN THE
  SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...DAMAGING WINDS.

* TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL BEGIN TONIGHT JUST BEHIND A PASSING
  COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH THE
  GREATEST THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
  NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY ABATE ON SATURDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 60 TO 65 MPH AT
  TIMES.

* IMPACTS...TREES AND POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY THE
  WINDS...RESULTING IN SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. MINOR STRUCTURAL
  DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE. DRIVING WILL BE DIFFICULT AND UNSECURED
  OBJECTS WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HIGH WIND WARNING MEANS A HAZARDOUS HIGH WIND EVENT IS EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH OR GUSTS
OF 58 MPH OR MORE CAN LEAD TO PROPERTY DAMAGE.

PLEASE REPORT DAMAGING WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING TOLL FREE...1...800...2 6 7...8 1 0 1. LEAVE A MESSAGE
WITH YOUR OBSERVATION AND THE ADDRESS WHERE IT OCCURRED.

&&

$$

NCZ051-058-062-201700-
/O.UPG.KGSP.HW.A.0003.121221T0000Z-121222T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.121221T0000Z-121222T1700Z/
SWAIN-GRAHAM-MACON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...FRANKLIN
344 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST SATURDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...SWAIN...GRAHAM...AND MACON COUNTIES IN THE SOUTHWEST
  MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT
  AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL STEADILY
  DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN BY
  THE WINDS...RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. LOOSE OBJECTS
  WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-201700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0008.121221T0000Z-121222T1700Z/
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...CLARKESVILLE...TOCCOA...
HARTWELL...ELBERTON...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...
ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...
GREENWOOD
344 AM EST THU DEC 20 2012

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
NOON EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE
  PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS.

* TIMING...BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT
  AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL STEADILY
  DIMINISH EARLY SATURDAY.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES COULD BE KNOCKED DOWN BY
  THE WINDS...RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. LOOSE OBJECTS
  WILL BE BLOWN ABOUT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE MID WEST NOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
AREA ON THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING NORTHWEST FLOW MOISTURE AND
COLD TEMPERATURES INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT...AND VERY
WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANTICIPATING A QUIET AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH DEEP AND DRY
SFC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR...BUT
FLEETING PATCHES OF CIRRUS DEBRIS WILL BE SEEN. THE RIDGE DOES START
TO GET FORCED OUT BY THE ADVANCING LOW LATE TONIGHT...AND THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY. THE NAM PRODUCES SOME PARTIAL CLOUDINESS FROM
THE RESULTING UPSLOPE...BUT ANY SUCH CLOUDS WOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
SCATTERED. SFC WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT...BUT SOUTHERLY AND
GENERALLY WARM ADVECTING. TEMPS SHOULD THUS COOL EFFICIENTLY
TONIGHT...BUT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY EARLY
THU...BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 18Z. WHILE THE
TIMING BETWEEN THE GFS AND NAM IS CLOSE...THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
SLIGHTLY BROADER ON THE NAM. PRECIP CHANCES RAMP UP IN THE SW NC MTNS
AND NE GA BY MID MORNING...SPREADING EAST WITH THE FRONT...BUT WITH
MAXIMUM COVERAGE IN THE CWFA AROUND 21Z. QPF IS NOT EXCESSIVE.  THERE
IS A VERY SMALL AMOUNT OF ELEVATED CAPE ORIGINATING FROM WARM
MIDLEVEL AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT THE CAPE VALUES ARE TOO SMALL
TO MENTION THUNDER IN THE FCST. NONETHELESS WE CANNOT RULE OUT VERY
ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER. AS THE COLD ADVECTION SETS IN JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT LATE FRI AFTERNOON...THE NAM SHOWS LLVL LAPSE RATES
IMPROVING AND THUS HAS AROUND 100 J/KG OF SFC BASED CAPE. THIS DOES
OVERLAP WITH VERY STRONG 0-3KM BULK SHEAR /60+ KT/ BUT THAT IS NOT
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET EXCITED ABOUT THREAT OF SEVERE WX.
HOWEVER...WILL INFORM SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO REMEMBER THIS.

STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL BE OVERHEAD NEAR THE FRONT WITH TIGHT
HEIGHT GRADIENT AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS IN
THE MTNS WILL SEE THESE STRONG 40+ KT WINDS AT THE SURFACE...AND
BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SOME LOWER MTN/FOOTHILLS SITES COULD
ALSO SEE ADVISORY-LEVEL GUSTS MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL MOVE IN EARLY ENOUGH TO
LIMIT MIXING MORE THAN WHAT IS SHOWN ON BUFKIT...SO AN ADVISORY IS
NOT NEEDED. HOWEVER STRONG GUSTS OF 30-35 KT MAY BE FELT INTO THE
FOOTHILLS. KEPT HIGH TEMPS NEAR RAW MODELS GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EST WED...A STRONG CLOSED LOW WILL DEEPEN TO UNDER 520
DECAMETERS AS IT TRAVERSES THE GREAT LAKES STATES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...YIELDING STRONG WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND SLIGHTLY LESS WINDY CONDITIONS OUT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT.

BY 00 UTC FRIDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE JUST EXITING THE FORECAST
AREA TO THE EAST. PCPN WILL QUICKLY COME TO AN END BEHIND THE
FRONT...THOUGH NW FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL START TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
TN LINE LATER IN THE NIGHT. STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT...AND WHILE THE DEEP LAYER FORCING WON/T BE AS FAVORABLE AS IT
WILL BE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT...STRONG WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY THE LLVL WINDS WILL TURN A LITTLE MORE OUT
OF THE NW AS H8 TEMPS FALL TO -8 TO -11 DEGREES C. THE LLVL LAPSE
RATES WILL BE STEEP AS THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC JET AXIS WILL BE
SOUTHWEST OF THE FA. THIS WILL SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ALONG THE TN LINE. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...THE DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL TURN OUT OF THE NW.
A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED 80-85 KT H7 JET MAXIMA WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME
HOURS. THIS WILL SET UP A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG WINDS TO
DEVELOP...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE UPPER FRENCH BROAD VALLEY...THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS WHERE THE
GRADIENT WINDS COULD BE TRANLASTED DOWNWARD BY A DEVELOPING MOUNTAIN
WAVE. FARTHER EAST...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 KTS ARE EXPECTED OUT ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...A HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL OF
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS STARTING
THURSDAY EVENING AND LASTING INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A WIND ADVISORY
WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED OUTSIDE THIS AREA DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
ON FRIDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE ISSUED WITH THIS
PACKAGE AS ANY SNOW SHOULD FALL DURING THE 3RD AND 4TH PERIODS AND
THE AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL APPROACH WINTER STORM
CRITERIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL START
OUT FAIRLY QUIETLY WITH A FLAT UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING WHAT AMOUNTS TO
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. NO
REAL CONTROVERSY THERE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.

THE SITUATION STARTS TO RAMP UP SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND APPROACHING TOWARD DAYBREAK
ON MONDAY. THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WARM FRONT ACTIVATION TO OUR
WEST BY MONDAY MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP SKIRTING THE
MTNS. THIS IS USUALLY PREMATURE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND WITH
TEMPS FCST TO BE COLD...WILL NOT FCST ANY PRECIP TO ELIMINATE THE
PROBLEM OF A LOW LIKELIHOOD MIXED PRECIP EVENT. THE WAVE SHOULD PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK TRAILING COLD
FRONT... AND THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF RAIN. THE
PROBLEM MIGHT BE CHRISTMAS EVE WITH THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT MAY REACTIVATE AS A
WARM FRONT BY CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH LIGHT PRECIP MAY REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. MIN TEMPS AND PROFILES ARE COLD ENOUGH
THAT SOME PLACES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT BLUE RIDGE WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. ACROSS THE REST OF
THE REGION...TEMPS SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH WITH WARM ADVECTION TO
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING. THE FCST RAMPS UP EVEN FURTHER ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASED UPPER SUPPORT...ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND GULF MOISTURE
SO THAT A LIKELY POP WAS INCLUDED MOVING UP FROM THE SW IN THE
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD. BY WEDNESDAY...CONFIDENCE BECOMES AN ISSUE WITH THE FATE
OF AN UPPER LOW LIFTING FROM SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS TO SOMEWHERE
OVER THE GT LAKES/MIDWEST. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY CARRY SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE UP THE OH VALLEY AND PUSH ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW...PRECIP CHANCES WERE TAKEN BACK DOWN
INTO THE CHC RANGE BECAUSE OF CONFIDENCE ISSUES. IF THE GFS IS
RIGHT...SHEAR WILL BE OUTSTANDING YET AGAIN WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE. UNLIKE THE LAST SEVERAL...THOUGH...WE MIGHT ACTUALLY HAVE
SOME BUOYANCY. THUNDER WILL NOT BE MENTIONED FOR NOW. LOOKING
AHEAD...PERHAPS FINALLY SOME MUCH COOLER TEMPS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECTING A RELATIVELY QUIET AFTERNOON AND NIGHT WITH SFC
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS REMAINING TOO LARGE FOR FOG FORMATION AND A
DEEP DRY ATMOSPHERE PRECLUDING CIGS. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY BACK TO SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO THE SOUTHEAST THU
MORNING. CONSENSUS OF LATEST GUIDANCE PROVIDES HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT
RESTRICTIONS/PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL NOT
OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 18Z THU...THOUGH LOW END WIND GUSTS WILL GET GOING
BEFORE THEN.

ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS AT THE SFC TONIGHT LOOK TO INHIBIT FOG
FORMATION AT ALL THE TAF SITES...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD
PRODUCE SOME UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS LATE TONIGHT.
THEY LOOK TO REMAIN VFR AND PROBABLY WILL NOT EVEN FORM A CIG. WINDS
WILL BACK FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. LOW END GUSTS MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR BY MID MORNING PARTICULARLY
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HAVE INCLUDED A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT GUST
MENTION AT KAVL AT THE TAIL END OF THE PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UNDERWAY AT THE WESTERN SITES BY THAT TIME AS WELL ALONG WITH
MVFR CIGS IN THE DEEPENING SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE FRONT.

OUTLOOK...AN ACTIVE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS AGAIN ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUDS/PRECIP. VERY GUSTY W/NW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ACRS THE ENTIRE REGION ON FRIDAY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FRIDAY IS SHAPING UP TO BE A DRY AND VERY WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
REGION. HOPEFULLY...ENOUGH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ON THURSDAY TO
WET FUELS AROUND THE AREA. IF WE GET LESS RAINFALL THAN
EXPECTED...FUELS MAY DRY OUT QUICKLY ON FRI TO INCREASE FIRE DANGER.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE EVEN LOWER ON SATURDAY. WINDS ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE WILL STILL BE GUSTY...PERHAPS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH...WHICH IS
LIKELY TO LEAD TO HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
     FOR NCZ051-052-058-059-062>064.
     HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NCZ033-048>050-053-065-501>510.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY
FIRE WEATHER...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
515 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-201100-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
515 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM THE WEST THURSDAY
EVENING. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY...AND A FEW TREES COULD BE
BLOWN DOWN AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS NEAR THE SMOKIES. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT...AND SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS RANGING FROM A
DUSTING IN THE LOWER VALLEYS TO A COUPLE OF INCHES ALONG THE
HIGHER RIDGE TOPS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

EVEN STRONGER WINDS WILL ARRIVE WITH THE COLD AIR EARLY FRIDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS TO REACH INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTS INTO THE 50 TO 60 MPH RANGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY BLOW DOWN TREES AND
POWER LINES...AND PRODUCE POWER OUTAGES. A HIGH WIND WATCH MAY
SOON BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE IMPROVES ANY FURTHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-201100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
515 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA...AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY...BUT WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY IN THE COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SUSTAINED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AT TIMES. LOCATIONS IN WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA...ESPECIALLY IN THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS OF 50 MPH AT TIMES. WINDS OF
THESE SPEEDS COULD BLOWN DOWN A FEW TREES AND POWER LINES. A WIND
ADVISORY FOR THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE NEAR
FUTURE...AND HIGH WIND WATCHES AND WARNINGS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
STAY ABREAST OF THE LATEST FORECAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GERAPETRITIS