Heat Advisory 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Hart County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
203 PM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CAUSING A HEAT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO WEAKEN ON
TUESDAY...ENDING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT AND INCREASING THE CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHT THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO DECREASE SKY COVER. OBS
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING SLOWER THAT PREVIOUS
FORECAST. I WILL ALSO UPDATE TO REDUCE HIGH TEMPS SLIGHTLY...BUT NO
CHANGE TO NPW.

AS OF 11 AM...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATED SCT TO BKN
ALTOCUMULUS FLOCCUS ACROSS THE NC FTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...WITH LIGHT
RETURNS ON RADAR. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...CLOUD COVER MAY LINGER INTO
MID AFTERNOON. DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS
THE REGION INDICATE THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MAY WIDEN AT CLOUD
LEVEL...I WILL FAVOR FEW TO SCT MENTION. THESE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO IMPACT WARMING RATES TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST CLOUD TIMING...I
WILL LOWER HIGHS SLIGHTLY OVER THE RIDGES AND HIGH FOOTHILL
ELEVATIONS. AREAS EAST ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RECORD BREAKING HEAT
WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES. NO CHANGES PLANNED TO NPW.

THIS EVENING...MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A LITTLE GREATER WITH
COVERAGE OF TS...WHICH INITIATE OVER THE MTNS OF VA. I WILL INCREASE
POPS TO SCHC THIS EVENING ACROSS THE I-40 CORRIDOR. THE TSRA RISK
WILL BE WATCH CLOSELY FOR THE NEXT PACKAGE.

AS OF 650 AM...BKN CIRRUS THIS MORNING WILL SCATTER OUT LEAVING HIGH
BASED CU FOR THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MTN VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE
QUICKLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...GOING FCST IN GOOD SHAPE SO
UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.

ANOMALOUS ANTI-CYCLONE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SERN US TODAY
CONTINUING THE RECORD HEAT ACROSS THE CWFA. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BREAK DAILY RECORD AT CLT/GSP AND BE NEAR ALL TIME RECORD LEVELS.
AVL WILL BREAK THEIR COOLER THAN FRIDAY DAILY RECORD BUT LIKELY
STILL FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHORT OF THE ALL TIME RECORD. EXPECT
GENERALLY HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE BOARD TODAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SLY. THIS IS EVEN WITH DEEPER MIXING THAN FRIDAY. THE WEAK
INVERSION BETWEEN H85 AND H7 REMAINS IN PLACE OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
ALLOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED THERE WHICH MIXING
WILL TAP. ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS WILL BE HIGHER...STILL EXPECT A
SIMILAR GRADIENT AS FRIDAY WITH HIGHER DEW POINTS NORTH AND LOWER
SOUTH. ALL THIS MEANS AN EXPANDED EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED...ADDED THE NWRN NC PIEDMONT AND ALL THE SRN PIEDMONT AND
CHEROKEE COUNTY SC. EXPANDED THE HEAT ADV AS WELL TO INCLUDE THE SC
MTNS AND HABERSHAM COUNTY GA.

THE OTHER WX CONCERN WILL BE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION OVER
THE MTNS. THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE
MTNS ERODING THE CAP WITH THE EXPECTED HIGHER DEW POINTS. STILL...
THE LFC WILL BE QUITE HIGH. SO WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE...ONLY
ISOLATED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ATTM. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS GIVEN THE FCST SFC DELTA
THETA-E VALUES UP TO 35 AND FCST DCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1250 AND 1500.

GUIDANCE SHOWS THE MAIN MCS TRACK WILL BE TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT. THAT
SAID...A TRAILING MCS COULD REACH THE MTNS BEFORE DISSIPATING
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POP LIMITED TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL
TREND. LOWS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM SATURDAY...HEAT WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ATOP THE CWFA SLOWLY
BREAKS DOWN. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND SLOWLY DOWNWARD...BUT
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON INCREASING DEWPTS EACH DAY. THIS IS
MOSTLY THANKS TO A PERSISTENT THERMAL LOW INVOF NRN GA...KEEPING A
LIGHT SLY/SELY SFC FLOW.  ALSO...AN E-W ORIENTED QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH ACRS THE OH VLY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...HELPING POOL MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BNDRY. A
MOS BLEND RESULTS IN TEMPS A DEG OR TWO COOLER THAN PERSISTENCE ON
SUNDAY AND ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES COOLER ON MONDAY...BUT HEAT
INDICES REMAINING SIMILAR EACH DAY. IN FACT...MONDAY MAY BE THE MOST
HUMID...WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER
PIEDMONT OF THE CWFA. RECORD HIGHS ARE FCST TO BE CHALLENGED AT ALL
THREE CLIMO SITES BOTH DAYS.

AS FOR CONVECTION...THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER BL DEWPTS COUPLED WITH
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING INSTBY BOTH
AFTNS...WITH FCST SNDGS SHOWING LESS CIN AND CAPES >2000 J/KG ON
SUNDAY AND COMPLETELY UNCAPPED ATMOS ON MONDAY WITH CAPES 3000+ J/KG
ACRS THE PIEDMONT. SO ACCORDINGLY...I HAVE SLIGHTLY INCREASED
POPS...WITH SHOTGUN SLGT CHC SUNDAY AND LOW-END CHC ON MONDAY. STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SFC DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE INDICATIVE
OF HIGH MICROBURST POTENTIAL. DESPITE THE BREAKING DOWN OF THE
MID-UPR HIGH...SHEAR REMAINS LOW BOTH DAYS. SO PULSE SEVERE LOOKS TO
BE THE MODE BOTH AFTNS. WITH THAT SAID...MCS ACTIVITY WILL TREND
SOUTHWARD WITH THE SAGGING FRONT AND MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWFA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SATURDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE LOOKS ON TRACK...SO NO
CHANGES WERE MADE THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
TUESDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF AXIS LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
UPPER RIDGING PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE LOBES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT RIPPLE
DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST HALF OR SO
OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEIGHTS STARTING TO RISE AGAIN TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST 12Z GFS DOES TRY TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST MORE THAN THE ECMWF DOES BY GENERATING A MORE WELL
DEFINED UPPER TROF OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURS AND FRI.

AT THE SFC...MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP BACK BELOW 100 ON TUES AND
THEN DOWN TO THE MID 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
IS SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES
FOR TSRA EACH DAY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE GENERATING HIGHER POPS ON
WED AND THURS AFTERNOON/EVENINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE GENERALLY MIXED OUT...WITH FEW CU OVER THE MTN
RIDGES. A SHALLOW LEE TROF SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING
LIGHT SW WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WINDS MAY BECOME
CALM WITH FEW TO SKC SKY. KAVL MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FOG AROUND
SUNRISE...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT
OVER THE COAST PLAIN ON SUNDAY...YIELDING LIGHT NNW WINDS ACROSS
ACROSS THE NC TAF SITES. SC TERMINALS MAY REMAIN CALM TO LIGHT FROM
THE NE.

OUTLOOK...GRADUAL INCREASE IN AIR MASS MOISTURE AND CHANGES IN
STEERING FLOW MAY RESULT IN AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN TSRA POTENTIAL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...HOT AIRMASS WILL LINGER INTO NEXT
WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY THAN ON
FRIDAY. THIS SHOULD STILL PRODUCE AFTERNOON RH VALUES BELOW THE
CRITICAL 25 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SWRN PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA. FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH FFC...WILL POST A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR STEPHENS THROUGH ELBERT COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JUNE 30TH 95 IN 1952
JULY 1ST  96 IN 1954
JULY 2ND  93 IN 1970
JULY 3RD  93 IN 1970

GSP
JUNE 30TH 100 IN 1959
JULY 1ST   99 IN 1970
JULY 2ND  101 IN 1954
JULY 3RD   99 IN 1931

CLT
JUNE 30TH 102 IN 1959
JULY 1ST   99 IN 1954
JULY 2ND  101 IN 1931
JULY 3RD   99 IN 1970

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ017-018-026-
     028.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ035-056-502-
     504-506-508-510.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-
     037-057-068>072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ001>007-010.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ008-
     009-011>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...NED/RWH
SHORT TERM...ARK
LONG TERM...ARK/JPT
AVIATION...NED
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>