Frost Advisory 8, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

083 
WWUS72 KGSP 220822
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
422 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED IN THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...

.LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
WILL ALLOW FROST TO FORM OVER MUCH OF THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-221300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0008.000000T0000Z-121022T1300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
422 AM EDT MON OCT 22 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...FROST MAY DAMAGE OR KILL SENSITIVE VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
222 PM EDT SUN OCT 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEKEND WHILE WE
MAY ALSO BE WATCHING A TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET PERIOD WITH DEEP RIDGE OVER CENTRAL-EASTERN
CONUS. A FEW CIRRUS MAY SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA
LATE MONDAY BUT OTHERWISE SKIES LOOK TO REMAIN CLEAR. LATEST GFS AND
NAM SHOW SOME MOISTURE MOVING IN AROUND THE 800MB LEVEL TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING BUT THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST WITH IT BY THE MODELS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS SEEMS OVERDONE...AS FLOW IS WESTERLY/DOWNSLOPING
IN THE LAYER FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD.

THICKNESS VALUES INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PERSISTENT
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT. NOTING
THIS ALONG WITH WARMING TREND AT 925MB...TEMPS SHOULD NOT DIP QUITE
AS COLD TONIGHT THOUGH RADIATION WILL STILL BE THE DRIVING FACTOR IN
LOWS. WENT WITH A BLEND OF NAM MOS GUIDANCE AND LAST NIGHT/S TEMPS TO
TRY TO GET THE BEST DISTRIBUTION OF RADIATIVE EFFECTS. NAM GUIDANCE
SEEMED A BIT TOO WARM AND THE BLEND TECHNIQUE PRODUCED REASONABLE
VALUES.  DISREGARDING GFS MOS WHICH IMPLIED A COOLING TREND FROM LAST
NIGHT TO TONIGHT...NOT AGREED UPON BY ANY OTHER GUIDANCE.

HIGHS MONDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...NEAR
NORMAL IN THE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ELSEWHERE.
DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY ON SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT SUNDAY...RIDGE ALOFT AT H5 WILL CROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA (FA) MONDAY NIGHT WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED. ALTHOUGH IN TIME DEWPOINTS WILL BE SLOWLY ON THE
RISE...THEY WILL STILL REMAIN LOW...THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT A LARGE
SWING IN TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT. I AM NEAR OR JUST BELOW ALL
GUIDE WITH THE EXPECTED LACK OF SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER AND VERY
GOOD RADIATION. MEANWHILE CROSS OVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BREACHED
AND WE ARE RECEVING PRETTY GOOD SIGNALS FROM OUR SUITE OF MODELS FOR
SOME FOG MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA. WE WILL START WITH
AREAS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND PATCHY ELSEWHERE.

THE H5 PATTERN WILL FLATTEN FOR ABOUT 48 HOURS WITH A WEAK RIPPLE OF
ENERGY PASSING TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD SWAY DURING THIS PERIOD. SOUNDING INFORMATION
AND POINT PLAN VIEW HUMIDITY DATA ARE TRYING TO SUGGEST A BIT MORE
CU DEVELOPING BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. AS A RESULT WE WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER UP
SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

MEANWHILE THE LARGE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING WILL PERSIST...PERHAPS
AROUND 30 DEGREES...INTO MID WEEK. FOG MIGHT AGAIN BE A CONCERN
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT WOULD LIKE TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO
CHECK CONSISTENCY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT SUNDAY...THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PICKS UP
AT 00Z THURSDAY WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PERSISTING OVER THE
EASTERN STATES AND A DEEP TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE HIGH TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE CATEGORIES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE
RIDGE AXIS CROSSES OUR REGION ON THURSDAY AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE SURFACE
FRONT WILL CROSS TENNESSEE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.  THE
MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN A DRYING TREND AND WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THAT
REACHES THE NC MOUNTAINS WILL MAX OUT SUNDAY MORNING.  COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE IN LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

MEANWHILE...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A TROPICAL SYSTEM
OVER THE CENTRAL CARRIBEAN EARLY IN THE WEEK.  THE LATEST GFS HAS
THIS SYSTEM REACHING A POINT ABOUT 200 MILES OFF CAPE HATTERAS
SUNDAY EVENING AS IT HEADS NORTH NORTHEAST.  THE ECMWF HAS IT MOVING
A BIT SLOWER NEAR THE SAME PATH UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH KICKS IT OFF
OVER THE ATLANTIC. THE CANADIAN HAS A MAJOR HURRICANE CROSSING THE
BAHAMAS FRIDAY AND TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA EARLY SATURDAY. CERTAINLY
LOOKS LIKE THE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP THIS TROPICAL SYSTEM TO THE EAST
OF OUR REGION HERE IN THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
FUTURE FORECASTS WILL REVEAL ITS IMPACT...IF ANY...ON THE CAROLINA
COAST.  IF OR WHEN IT BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM...IT WILL BE NAMED
SANDY. THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE CLOSELY
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR PEOPLE WHO HAVE FAMILY OR PROPERTY ALONG
THE CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN CLEAR TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY WINDS MAY OCCUR TOMORROW DURING THE ONSET OF
MIXING BUT AFTER THAT...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

ELSEWHERE...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME VFR-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL
ENTER THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT THIS IS BEING DISCOUNTED
DUE TO THE PREVAILING DOWNSLOPING FLOW ALOFT AT THAT TIME.
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE EXCELLENT TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT WITH FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS AS WELL. LAMP GUIDANCE SEEMED TO
HAVE THE MOST PLAUSIBLE FOG SCENARIO WITH THE LITTLE TENNESSEE
VALLEY GOING DOWN TO VLIFR...OTHER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS GENERALLY TO
MVFR OR IFR. THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT ALSO WILL BE NEAR SATURATION
AND SO THINK MVFR FOG WILL OCCUR THERE WAS WELL. A FEW CIRRUS MAY
FILTER IN BEGINNING LATE MONDAY MORNING BUT THIS WILL HAVE A VERY
LOW IMPACT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT FOR THE DURATION OF THE PERIOD
THOUGH BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY TOMORROW AS CORE OF SFC HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT FOR EARLY
MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...WIMBERLEY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
721 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-212330-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
721 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FROST ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FROST ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506>510-SCZ001>014-019-212330-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
721 PM EDT SAT OCT 20 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.