Frost Advisory 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

866 
WWUS72 KGSP 101839
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

.A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE APPALACHIANS FROM THE WEST LATE
TODAY...USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...WITH
CLEAR SKIES. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF FROST
OVER MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

NCZ064-065-110245-
/O.EXA.KGSP.FR.Y.0006.121011T0600Z-121011T1300Z/
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BREVARD...HENDERSONVILLE
239 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.

* IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED BY A KILLING FROST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-501-503-505-110245-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0006.121011T0600Z-121011T1300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN
239 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED BY A KILLING FROST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
WIMBERLEY

023 
WWUS72 KGSP 110209
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1009 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS COOL AND DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE THE
FORMATION OF FROST OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-111300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0006.121011T0600Z-121011T1300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
1009 PM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S. POCKETS OF FREEZING
  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS
  BENEATH THE SMOKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED BY A KILLING FROST.
  

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
LANE

889 
WWUS72 KGSP 110611
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...

.WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS COOL AND
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE THE FORMATION OF FROST OVER MUCH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-111300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-121011T1300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD...
HENDERSONVILLE
211 AM EDT THU OCT 11 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S. POCKETS OF FREEZING 
  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS 
  BENEATH THE SMOKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...TENDER VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED BY A KILLING FROST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK
COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS ON THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT OVER THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT...THE LOW CLOUD SATELLITE PRODUCT LOOP DEPICTS
GRADUAL CLEARING OR SCATTERING FROM S TO N EARLY THIS MORNING.
PATCHY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRIEFLY FILL BACK IN IN AREAS THAT
SCATTER...ESPECIALLY THE MTN VALLEYS. OTHERWISE...DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THIS MORNING...BUT WITH 850 MB FLOW
AND MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY. A SFC COLD
FRONT DRAPED FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO THE MID MS VALLEY THIS
MORNING WILL REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE THIS AFTN. SHOWERS
APPEAR FAIRLY UNLIKELY TODAY DESPITE THE PASSING BROAD UPPER TROUGH
AND APPROACHING FRONTAL ZONE SINCE MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED AND LAPSE
RATES ARE UNIMPRESSIVE. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE MORE MTN CLOUDINESS
IN THE MOIST WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THIS AFTN...WITH A LATE DAY/EARLY
EVENING FROPA.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL OVERNIGHT. THE 850 MB COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHUT OFF DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...WITH THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT RAPIDLY WEAKENING THROUGH
DAYBREAK. WITH HIGH PRESSURE LIKELY CENTERED OVER OR NEAR THE
APPALACHIANS TOWARD DAYBREAK THU...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER COOP
MOS FOR MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. THIS WILL PUT MUCH OF THE NC MTNS AT RISK
FOR AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAWN. A FROST ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE NC MTNS...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHTLY
WARMER POCKET FROM LAKE LURE TO HENDERSONVILLE TO BREVARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE SHORT RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 12Z ON
THURSDAY WITH A FLAT UPPER TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND A CLOSED
H5 LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. UPPER RIDGING WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND SLIDE EASTWARD
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL START OUT VERY COOL WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE CAROLINAS. IT WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT NELY WINDS TO THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
ABOUT A CATEGORY BELOW THE PREVIOUS DAY WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND THE MTS REACHING THE LOWER
TO MID 60S. ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CWFA
FROM THE NORTH WITH A REINFORCING HIGH BEHIND IT. THIS FROPA SHOULD
BE MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE NW ZONES
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AS THE REINFORCING HIGH SLIDES SE...ANOTHER
WEDGE/CAD PATTERN APPEARS TO BRIEFLY SET UP BY 12Z SAT. TEMPS WILL
REBOUND AT LEAST A CAT ON FRI WITH VALUES FALLING AGAIN ON SAT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST PICKS UP AT
12Z SATURDAY WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE SE CONUS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...HEIGHTS WILL LOWER AS
THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A SERIES OF UPPER SHORTWAVES TRANSLATE
OVER THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE MISS VALLEY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY CROSS THE
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY MONDAY WITH INCREASING POPS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS ABOUT 12
TO 18 HOURS FASTER WRT THE FROPA COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND THE
INDIVIDUAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH REGARDS
TO QPF AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...I USED A MODEL
BLEND AND KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANOTHER
SFC HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES FOR THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
2-3 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SAT/SUN WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES MON/TUE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...LOW CLOUD PRODUCT SHOWS MVFR LAYER IN THE AREA ERODING
FROM THE S EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THAT WILL INTRODUCE THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG FORMATION OVER THE COOL AND SOMEWHAT MOIST
GROUND. NONE OF THE MOS IS SHOWING ANY IFR VSBY RESTRICTION...BUT
UPSTATE SC SITES HAVE HAD SOME BRIEF IFR FOG AFTER SCATTERING. WILL
THUS ADVERTISE TEMPO 2SM BR 08Z TO 11Z THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY FEW TO SCT VFR CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW BECOMING NW WITH FROPA AFTER 22Z.

ELSEWHERE...MVFR CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER FROM S
TO N ACROSS THE TERMINAL FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. KHKY
SHOULD HOLD ONTO THE MVFR LAYER THE LONGEST...WHILE KAVL COULD
TEETER ON IFR CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE
FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE THE AMD NOT SKED AT KAVL GIVEN
THE CURRENT POWER OUTAGE AT THE KAVL AIRPORT AND LACK OF
OBSERVATIONAL DATA. ELSEWHERE...EXPECT MAINLY FEW TO SCT VFR CLOUDS
WITH IMPROVING WESTERLY FLOW AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PRE/DAWN IFR VSBY WHEREVER THE CIGS
SCATTER...BUT IMPROVING MIXING FROM THE WEST SHOULD KEEP THIS FROM
BEING A PROBLEM. THE FROPA FROM THE WEST LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS
EVENING SHOULD BE DRY...WITH MAINLY A WIND SHIFT TO NW FLOW AND SOME
BRIEF GUSTS EXPECTED. KAVL COULD SEE MORE EXTENDED GUSTS INTO THE
EVENING WITH COLD ADVECTION FLOW.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND LAY
OVER INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AND
RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ033-
     048>053-058-059-062-063-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JPT
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-501-503-505-111000-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
324 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FROST ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FROST ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ064-065-111000-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
324 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN END OF
HENDERSON AND TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-
506>510-SCZ001>014-019-111000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
324 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG