Frost Advisory 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

945 
WWUS72 KGSP 240107
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
907 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT...

.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL RAPIDLY INTO
THE MIDDLE OR UPPER 30S BEFORE DAYBREAK...PERMITTING AREAS OF
FROST TO FORM. A VERY FEW LOCATIONS COULD SEE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-501-503-505-241300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0005.120924T0500Z-120924T1300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN
907 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT
MONDAY...

* LOCATIONS...MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A VERY FEW 
  LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES RIGHT 
  AROUND SUNRISE.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS 
  THE ADVISORY AREA. TENDER VEGETATION COULD BE KILLED BY THE 
  FROST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

HG/JCW

900 
WWUS72 KGSP 240724
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING...

.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY DURING THE
PRE DAWN HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL RAPIDLY INTO THE MIDDLE OR
UPPER 30S BEFORE SUNRISE...PERMITTING AREAS OF FROST TO FORM. A VERY FEW
LOCATIONS COULD SEE FREEZING TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND DAWN.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-501-503-505-241300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-120924T1300Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...BRYSON CITY...
WAYNESVILLE...ASHEVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN
324 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...MOST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. A VERY FEW 
  LOCATIONS COULD BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE FREEZING TEMPERATURES RIGHT 
  AROUND SUNRISE.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS 
  THE ADVISORY AREA. TENDER VEGETATION COULD BE KILLED BY THE 
  FROST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
136 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...REACHING
THE COAST BY MIDWEEK. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE COAST...A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN BEHIND IT AND INTO THE CAROLINAS FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHILLY
TEMPERATURES IN THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN FOOTHILLS TONIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK. THERE ARE A FEW
COMPETING FACTORS TO CONSIDER. AN UPPER JETLET MOVING INTO THE LOWER
OH VALLEY THIS AFTN IS ROUNDING THE ERN CONUS TROUGH. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE CIRRUS WITH THIS FEATURE...SO LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER IS ANTICIPATED AS IT PASSES THE NRN TIER OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED PASSING OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH COULD PROMOTE SOME WEAK VERTICAL MIXING IN THE
COLUMN. NW FLOW AT 850 MB TONIGHT LOOKS WEAKER ACROSS THE NC MTNS
THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION...THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH
PRES WILL STRETCH FROM WV TO KY BY 12Z MON...WITH THE PRES GRADIENT
RELAXING GREATLY ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
QUICK BOTTOMING OUT OF TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK. WEIGHING
ALL THESE FACTORS...WILL BLEND COOLER COOPERATIVE OBSERVER MOS
GUIDANCE INTO THE OPERATIONAL MOS MIX AND POST A FROST ADVISORY FOR
MUCH OF THE NC MTNS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FROST COULD SPILL OUT INTO THE
WRN NC FOOTHILLS...BUT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD REMAIN TOO STRONG
FOR ANY FROST POTENTIAL OUT OVER THE PIEDMONT.

UPPER HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AS THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. PROFILES WILL REMAIN VERY DRY THROUGH THE DAY. MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH THE THICKNESS
TROUGH IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...ON MONDAY...THE BROAD CENTER OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO EASTERN
VA DURING THE DAY. MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. ALTHOUGH H85 TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO RECOVER
DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAX VALUES WILL BE LIMITED BY THE COOL START
TO THE DAY. FORECAST HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE U60S ACROSS THE
MTNS TO THE MID 70S EAST. MOS CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT AFTERNOON
DWPTS WILL FALL INTO THE U30S...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD RH VALUES
EAST OF THE MTNS AROUND 30 PERCENT...WITH PATCHES OF U20S.

MONDAY NIGHT...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE LEVEL OF THE
INVERSION WILL LOWER TONIGHT...WITH THE PEAK OF THE INVERSION
FALLING TO AROUND 5 KFT BY 12Z TUESDAY. MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL FEATURE AN INVERSE LAPSE RATE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN. I WILL
FORECAST MIN TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS THE MTN VALLEYS TO
AROUND 50 EAST...RIDGES MAY REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 3 DEGREES WARMER THAN
THE VALLEY FLOOR.

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE ON TUESDAY. AT THE
SFC...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MID DAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
WILL PEAK WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF NORMAL. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RISE
INTO THE U40S...PLACING RH VALUES WILL ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUNDAY...I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE A NEW ENGLAND SHORT WAVE ON
WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A WEST TO EAST STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...THE CWA SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES RANGE SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN
SEASONABLE VALUES. OVERALL...CONDITIONS SHOULD FAVOR A DRY FORECAST.
HOWEVER...DIURNAL INSTABILITY MAY INCREASE EACH DAY...FAVORING SCHC
POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
MTNS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...WINDS HAVE BACKED AROUND TO NW WITH MIXING...AND A FEW LOW
END GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABLY NOT WORTH A MENTION IN THE
TAF. WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO NE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG
THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING SFC HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE. SKIES
WILL BE CLEAR AND NE WINDS AND NORTH OPERATIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
AT THE AIRFIELD UNTIL THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF...WHEN WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHTER AND A BIT MORE VARIABLE.

ELSEWHERE...WNW TO NW WINDS WITH MIXING WILL BECOME LIGHT N TO NE
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES AND UNRESTRICTED VSBY...WITH PERHAPS
JUST A LITTLE PASSING CI NORTH OF KAVL TO KHKY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY
FROST FORMATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY.
LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MID
WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE N THU INTO
FRI...BUT LIKELY STALL N OF THE AREA.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH VALUES ACROSS NE GA WILL FALL UNDER 25 PERCENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS
THIS AFTN. HOWEVER...GFC 10 HR FUEL MOISTURE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 8 TO 10 PERCENT RANGE...AND WINDS WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM...SO NO
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT SHOULD BE NEEDED.

DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ON MON...WITH AFTN RH VALUES FALLING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062-063-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...HG
FIRE WEATHER...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
544 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503>506-240945-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-
544 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A CLEAR AND COOL CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTH
CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL FALL INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT. PATCHY
FROST MAY DEVELOP AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-
507>510-SCZ001>014-019-240945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
544 AM EDT SUN SEP 23 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.