Frost Advisory 11, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

573 
WWUS72 KGSP 022330
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
730 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...

.WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ONLY
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO AREAS OF FROST DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ008-009-014-
031300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0011.121103T0400Z-121103T1300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-CHEROKEE-YORK-
CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...CHESTER
730 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AND 
  THE EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER 
  VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

GERAPETRITIS

388 
WWUS72 KGSP 031314
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
914 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ008-009-014-
031415-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FR.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-121103T1300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-CHEROKEE-YORK-
CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...CHESTER
914 AM EDT SAT NOV 3 2012

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THIS MORNING ENDING THE THREAT
OF FROST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE TOO WARM FOR FROST TO
DEVELOP AGAIN.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 PM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER ATOP THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. THEN
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW ATLTOCU/HIGH STRATOCU WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE EVEN AS IT
SPILLS OUT OF THE MTNS AND ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. BKN
THIN CIRRUS WILL BE THE MAIN CLOUD OVERNIGHT. NWLY UPPER FLOW OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT WILL WEAKEN AS HEIGHT GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE
UPPER TROF AXIS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA. AT THE SFC...LEE TROF ENDS
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NW. ONCE AGAIN...RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD
BUT NOT GREAT AS CIRRUS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA. IT SHUD BE MAINLY
THIN HOWEVER...WITH SFC WINDS DECOUPLING. THEREFORE...HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN GUIDANCE BLEND FOR LOWS. THIS MEANS TEMPS IN
THE MID 30S FOR THE NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT...AND ERN UPSTATE.
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S REST OF UPSTATE AND NON-MTNS OF NE GA. WILL
NEED ANOTHER FROST ADV FOR THE MID 30S AREAS AS A WIDESPREAD FREEZE
STILL HAS NOT OCCURRED OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS. PATCHY FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF I-26 OUTSIDE OF THE ADV AREA.

FLOW BECOMES NEARLY ZONAL SAT. THIS WILL PUSH A SFC LOW AND
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT INTO ERN TN BY AFTERNOON. DEEP MOISTURE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FRONT. THIS KEEPS ANY
PRECIP NORTH AND WEST OF THE CWFA THRU THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE MTNS BY THE END OF THE DAY HOWEVER.
STILL...SHUD BE ANOTHER MILD DAY AS THICKNESSES INCREASE AND WINDS
OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS BECOME SWLY. THIS PUTS HIGHS NEAR NORMAL WEST
AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM FRIDAY...A WAVE OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM CENTRAL TN SAT EVENING...SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH SC ON SUN. LOOKS
LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF QG FORCING AND RESULTING UVV TO
TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS. SHOWERS WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS...WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE DEVELOPING OVER THE PIEDMONT LATE SAT NIGHT
THROUGH SUN. INSTABILITY IS MOSTLY NEGLIBLE IN MODEL
FORECASTS...EXCEPT OVER UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND PARTS OF
FAR WEST NC EARLY SUNDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE ON
SUN. CAPES MAY APPROACH 500J/KG IN THOSE AREAS...SO HAVE THUNDER
MENTIONED THERE.

THE WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MOVE EAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NW TO BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
MONDAY. A RATHER DISTINCT N-S TEMP GRADIENT IS LIKELY ON SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE PERHAPS A CAT OR SO ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE VALUES ELSEWHERE. A SEASONALLY
COOL AIRMASS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MON WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR
SO BELOW AVERAGE ALL AREAS. USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR TEMP
FIELDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE CONVERGING ON AN
EAST COAST STORM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS A POTENT SHORTWAVE
TROF DIVES INTO THE LONGWAVE TROF AXIS ACRS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE
12Z GFS HAS COME IN LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF AND GENERAL HPC THINKING. FOR
NOW...I THINK GOING CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE IS THE WAY TO GO...AS THE
GFS GENERALLY HASN/T PERFORMED AS WELL IN THE MEDIUM RANGE OF LATE.

SO MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE PERIODS OF MOST
UNSETTLED WX FOR THE CWFA...WITH THE UPPER WAVE DIVING INTO THE GULF
STATES AND SPARKING OFF WEAK CYCLOGENESIS INVOF SRN GA.
MEANWHILE...MODEST HIGH PRES (~1024 MB) WILL BRIEFLY SETTLE OVER THE
ERN GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THICKNESSES LOOK MARGINAL
FOR SOME VERY HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IN THE NRN MTNS...AS PRECIP BREAKS
OUT LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THESE AREAS LOOK FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE
BETTER MOISTURE AND LIFT...HOWEVER. BLENDING IN THE NEW HPC
POPS...RESULTS IN MID TO HIGH-END CHC ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST SOUTH. A
WEDGE WILL BE IN PLACE...SO TEMPS LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
TUESDAY. PRECIP QUICKLY TAPERS OFF TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE WAVE
APPROACHES THE MID ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. PERHAPS SOME CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS ON BACK SIDE OF PRECIP...BUT THE
MODELS DON/T SHOW A SIGNIFICANT NW FLOW SETUP.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY...EAST COAST CYCLONE LOOKS TO TURN INTO A
NORTHEASTER...BUT GUIDANCE IN DISAGREEMENT ON HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST
IT WILL BE. FOR OUR AREA...DRY HIGH PRES LOOKS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST...WITH POSSIBLY SOME LINGERING NW FLOW SHWRS WEDNESDAY AND
BREEZY NW WINDS ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. DRY WX AND A WARMING TREND
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LEE TROF
PLAYING ITS USUAL GAMES WITH WIND DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WSW AND GUSTY FOR THE SRN SITES BECOMING WSW WITH LOW END GUSTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. KAVL KEEPS ITS USUAL NNW WHILE KHKY
IS LIGHT WSW. WINDS BECOME NWLY THEN NLY AND VERY LIGHT OR CALM
OVERNIGHT. THE LOW ALTOCU/HIGH STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE THRU THE
AFTERNOON EVEN AS IT SPILLS OUT OF THE MTNS TO KCLT BEFORE ENDING.
BKN THIN CIRRUS WILL BE THE MAIN CLOUD FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AND
PERIOD. THAT SAID... THERE COULD BE SOME MID CLOUD ACROSS NC BY
MORNING. EXPECT A RETURN OF THE USUAL DENSE VALLEY FOG IN THE LITTLE
TN BASIN BY DAYBREAK AND ENDING BY MID MORNING. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S
TO SW WITH MIXING BY NOON SAT. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE A LITTLE
STRONGER NNW WIND DEVELOPS SAT. MAINLY CIRRUS CONTINUES SAT.

OUTLOOK...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A GRADUAL
RETURN OF CLOUDS FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
LOWER CIGS MAY RETURN TO THE REGION SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS LOW
PRES MOVES EAST ALONG A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. BRIEF DRYING IS
POSSIBLE MON BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM RETURNS FROM THE WEST ON TUE.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ008-009-014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...ARK
AVIATION...RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
906 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-031315-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-
906 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD
TO AREAS OF FROST. IF SO...THEN A FROST ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SCZ008-009-014-031315-
CHEROKEE-YORK-CHESTER-
906 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY LEAD
TO AREAS OF FROST. IF SO...THEN A FROST ADVISORY WOULD BE NEEDED
ACROSS THE EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-SCZ001>007-010>013-019-031315-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-GREENWOOD-
906 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-031315-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
906 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.