Alert archive / North Carolina / Frost Advisories in 2012

Frost Advisory 10, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

November 1, 201216 counties in North Carolina; 8 counties in South Carolina; 4 counties in Georgia

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this frost advisory at Nov 1, 2012, 4:09 AM EDT for 16 counties in North Carolina; 8 counties in South Carolina; 4 counties in Georgia. It took effect at Nov 2, 2012, 12:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 9 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 1, 2012, 4:09 AM EDT (08:09 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 2, 2012, 12:00 AM EDT
Expired
Nov 2, 2012, 9:00 AM EDT
In force
9 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
All 28 counties

Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Hart County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2012-11-01Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2012-11-01The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -3 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1294 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
15 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
36 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

610 
WWUS72 KGSP 010809
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY...

.AREAS OF FROST WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA
AND THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING.
THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE REST
OF THE UPSTATE AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FARTHER TO THE
WEST. FROST WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING OVER A LARGER
AREA...INCLUDING MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS.

GAZ029-NCZ502-504-506-508-510-SCZ011-012-019-011700-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FR.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-121101T1300Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/
ELBERT-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELBERTON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...
GREENWOOD
409 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
FRIDAY...
...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM EDT FRIDAY. THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS THE
  SOUTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S FRIDAY MORNING. 

* WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER 
  VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-011700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-121101T1300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...UNION...CHESTER
409 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING...
...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM EDT FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS
  THE EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S. 

* WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER 
  VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ004>007-010-011700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...GREENVILLE...
SPARTANBURG...ANDERSON
409 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM EDT FRIDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
  UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

* WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER 
  VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

MCAVOY
4 follow-up statements
222 
WWUS72 KGSP 011304
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
904 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...

.AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-012115-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FR.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-121101T1300Z/
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...
SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...
CONCORD...MONROE...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...UNION...CHESTER
904 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT FRIDAY...
...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

* LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS 
  THE EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER 
  VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ502-504-506-508-510-SCZ004>007-010>012-019-
012115-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...
GREENWOOD
904 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN 
  UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER 
  VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
643 
WWUS72 KGSP 011909
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
309 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...

.AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN NORMALLY
COLDER OR RURAL AREAS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
ARE POSSIBLE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-020315-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...
STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SHELBY...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
309 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH
  OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

* WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER 
  VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$
465 
WWUS72 KGSP 020008
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
808 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...

.AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND THE
NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ISOLATED FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN NORMALLY COLDER OR RURAL AREAS OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ARE POSSIBLE.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-021300-
/O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...
STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SHELBY...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
808 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM
EDT FRIDAY...

* LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND 
  MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S...WITH A FEW LOW LYING AREAS
  REACHING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK.

* WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER 
  VEGETATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR
PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED.

&&

$$

HG
142 
WWUS72 KGSP 021303
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
903 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-
510-SCZ004>014-019-021415-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-121102T1300Z/
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON...
STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SHELBY...
LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE...
GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON...
ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD
903 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM SO THE FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED ON
SCHEDULE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S
TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT. THEREFORE...A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
TONIGHT. 

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this frost advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this frost advisory went out at Nov 1, 3:55 AM EDT, 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 1, 3:55 AM EDT, 14 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
WEEK...TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP OVER PARTS OF THE
NC AND SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME
CLOUD FREE PATCHES THAT HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN SPOTS. THE THINKING IS THAT THE
WAVE CLOUDS WILL THIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING MORE SPOTS TO
DEVELOP FROST. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ACROSS THE UPSTATE
WEST OF SPARTANBURG AND ACROSS THE NC MTNS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. I/VE
REMOVED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

THERE MAY BE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR THE TN LINE OVER THE NRN
MTNS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...TEMPS IN MOST AREAS ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
ALSO...THE HIGH UPSTREAM CLOUD BASES DON/T BODE WELL FOR MUCH PCPN
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. STILL...I/LL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FROM I-26
NORTHWARD ALONG THE TN LINE EARLY TODAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A NICE
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON WED.

YET ANOTHER NW FLOW SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THE UPSTREAM LLVL AIRMASS LOOKS EVEN DRIER THAN TODAY...AND
THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE VERY LITTLE PCPN ALONG THE TN LINE.
HOWEVER...A BROADER AREA OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE AT NIGHT SOUTH OF THE WAVE. EAST OF THE MTNS THE
CLOUDS SHOULDN/T MOVE IN TIL AROUND SUNRISE. DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER
IN THE WEAK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE. EVEN WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION...MANY AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND FROST SHOULD
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. I/VE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST
NON-MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS A SMALL PART OF NE
GA AND THE GOLDEN CORNER OF THE UPSTATE WHERE TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
TOO WARM FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 245 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL S/W WILL TRACK SE
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. AS THE DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE CWA FROM THE NW...RESULTING
IN CLEARING SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM KY. AS THE
HIGH CENTER APPROACHES...NW WINDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL FAVOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NC MTNS BY 12Z SAT. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...REMAINING LIGHT TO CALM ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS. USING A BLEND OF MOS...MIN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPSTATE
OF SC...MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NC ZONES. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR AREAS TO PATCHY
FROST DEVELOPMENT...I WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SW
WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY WARM THE LLVL TEMPERATURE PROFILES DURING
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RISE TO OR
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 3 AM EDT THURSDAY...I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUN AND MON...FOLLOWED
BY AN AMPLIFYING POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROF MON AND MON NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD OF GREATEST QG FORCING WILL OCCUR WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE H5 TROF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL
MAINTAIN A CHC POP FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-26. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE NC
MTNS CLOUD SEE A LITTLE SN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FAVOR VALUES 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...CALM WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WAVE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TOWARD
SUNRISE AND THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AGAIN. THIS WILL FAVOR THE
FORMATION OF FROST. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AND THE
FROST IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT SPEEDS OF 10 KTS
OR LESS.

AT KAVL...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD OF THE
TAF. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. NO RESTRICTIVE
CIGS OR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE...
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTHWEST OF
THE AIRFIELD EARLY TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OR CLEAR
BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST EARLY
TODAY...AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 KTS OR LESS LATER IN THE
DAY.

OUTLOOK...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY LOWER CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPSTATE OF SC FOR 4 TO 5
HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. GIVEN
LOW RH VALUES AND MARGINALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
PORTIONS OF NE GA WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-056-
     057-068>072-082.
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ004>014-019.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ008-009-013-
     014.

&&

SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY
FIRE WEATHER...NED
Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 31, 10:50 PM EDT, 5 hours 19 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1050 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-020300-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-
1050 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE AREAS WHICH HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND. MANY ROADS WILL BE WET
FROM MELTING SNOW THIS EVENING AND MAY FREEZE...FORMING BLACK ICE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVERNIGHT IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-020300-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
1050 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-SCZ004>007-010-020300-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-
1050 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

FROST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ008-009-
011>014-019-020300-
ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-
GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1050 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FROST ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FROST ADVISORY.

FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND
AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 31, 10:21 PM EDT, 5 hours 48 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1021 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

NCZ033-049-050-011300-
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE
1021 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...BLACK ICE AND A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...

ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AND MOIST AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT FREEZING AT TIMES TOWARD
DAYBREAK. AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

IN ADDITION...SNOW THAT MELTED ON AREA ROADWAYS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REFREEZE OVERNIGHT...CAUSING PATCHY BLACK
ICE TO FORM. ROADS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER MAY BECOME VERY
SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE
40S ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE ROAD SURFACES TO THAW OUT BY
MIDDAY.

NCZ048-051>053-058-059-011300-
MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...
ASHEVILLE...SYLVA
1021 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012

...BLACK ICE TO DEVELOP ON NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN ROADS OVERNIGHT...

SNOW THAT MELTED ON AREA ROADWAYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
TO REFREEZE OVERNIGHT...CAUSING PATCHY BLACK ICE TO FORM. ROADS
NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER MAY BECOME VERY SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S ON
THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE ROAD SURFACES TO THAW OUT BY MIDDAY.

GERAPETRITIS
Special weather statement, Nov 1, 3:44 AM EDT, 25 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
344 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-020000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-
344 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT...

...HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OR LESS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR
WILDFIRES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITIES CONCERNING
WHETHER YOU MAY BURN OUTDOORS. IF YOU DO BURN OUTSIDE...USE EXTREME
CAUTION.

NED

Nearby

Frost Advisories in North Carolina, 2012Frost Advisories in South Carolina, 2012Frost Advisories in Georgia, 2012Every frost advisory in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.