Alert archive / North Carolina / Frost Advisories in 2012
Frost Advisory 10, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this frost advisory at Nov 1, 2012, 4:09 AM EDT for 16 counties in North Carolina; 8 counties in South Carolina; 4 counties in Georgia. It took effect at Nov 2, 2012, 12:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 9 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 1, 2012, 4:09 AM EDT (08:09 UTC)
- In effect from
- Nov 2, 2012, 12:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Nov 2, 2012, 9:00 AM EDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
All 28 counties
Elbert County, GA, Franklin County, GA, Hart County, GA, Stephens County, GA, Alexander County, NC, Burke County, NC, Cabarrus County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Catawba County, NC, Cleveland County, NC, Davie County, NC, Gaston County, NC, Iredell County, NC, Lincoln County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mecklenburg County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rowan County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Union County, NC, Abbeville County, SC, Anderson County, SC, Cherokee County, SC, Chester County, SC, Greenwood County, SC, Laurens County, SC, Union County, SC, York County, SC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 56 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1294 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 36 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
610 WWUS72 KGSP 010809 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 409 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 ...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED THIS MORNING AND AGAIN EARLY FRIDAY... .AREAS OF FROST WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE NORTHEAST PARTS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE REST OF THE UPSTATE AND THE ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FARTHER TO THE WEST. FROST WILL DEVELOP AGAIN FRIDAY MORNING OVER A LARGER AREA...INCLUDING MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. GAZ029-NCZ502-504-506-508-510-SCZ011-012-019-011700- /O.CAN.KGSP.FR.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-121101T1300Z/ /O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/ ELBERT-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL- GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-GREENWOOD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELBERTON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS... GREENWOOD 409 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... ...FROST ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY. THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING. * LOCATIONS...THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S FRIDAY MORNING. * WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-011700- /O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/ /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-121101T1300Z/ ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY... SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE... CONCORD...MONROE...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...UNION...CHESTER 409 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING... ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS THE EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S. * WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ GAZ018-026-028-SCZ004>007-010-011700- /O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/ STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...GREENVILLE... SPARTANBURG...ANDERSON 409 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY. * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. * WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ MCAVOY
4 follow-up statements
222 WWUS72 KGSP 011304 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 904 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 ...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY... .AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008-009-013-014-012115- /O.EXP.KGSP.FR.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-121101T1300Z/ /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/ ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON- MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-CHEROKEE-YORK-UNION SC-CHESTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY... SALISBURY...SHELBY...LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE... CONCORD...MONROE...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...UNION...CHESTER 904 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... ...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... * LOCATIONS...THE WESTERN PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS THE EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S. * WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ502-504-506-508-510-SCZ004>007-010>012-019- 012115- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/ STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE- EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE- GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE- LAURENS-GREENWOOD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON... GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...ANDERSON...ABBEVILLE...LAURENS... GREENWOOD 904 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S. * WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$
643 WWUS72 KGSP 011909 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 309 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 ...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY... .AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE UPSTATE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN NORMALLY COLDER OR RURAL AREAS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ARE POSSIBLE. GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508- 510-SCZ004>014-019-020315- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/ STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA- ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL- GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE- LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON... STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SHELBY... LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE... GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON... ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD 309 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S. * WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$
465 WWUS72 KGSP 020008 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 808 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 ...AREAS OF FROST EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY... .AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER MOST OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA UPSTATE AND THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. ISOLATED FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN NORMALLY COLDER OR RURAL AREAS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ARE POSSIBLE. GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508- 510-SCZ004>014-019-021300- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.121102T0400Z-121102T1300Z/ STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA- ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL- GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE- LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON... STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SHELBY... LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE... GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON... ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD 808 PM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY... * LOCATIONS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND MUCH OF THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 30S...WITH A FEW LOW LYING AREAS REACHING NEAR THE FREEZING MARK. * WINDS...WEST 5 MPH OR LESS. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO TENDER VEGETATION. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT FROST IS POSSIBLE. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ HG
142 WWUS72 KGSP 021303 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 903 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012 GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508- 510-SCZ004>014-019-021415- /O.EXP.KGSP.FR.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-121102T1300Z/ STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA- ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC- GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL- GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE- LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TOCCOA...HARTWELL...ELBERTON... STATESVILLE...MOCKSVILLE...HICKORY...SALISBURY...SHELBY... LINCOLNTON...GASTONIA...CHARLOTTE...CONCORD...MONROE... GREENVILLE...SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY...ROCK HILL...ANDERSON... ABBEVILLE...LAURENS...UNION...CHESTER...GREENWOOD 903 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012 ...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM SO THE FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED ON SCHEDULE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE MID 30S TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THEREFORE...A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN TONIGHT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this frost advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this frost advisory went out at Nov 1, 3:55 AM EDT, 14 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 1, 3:55 AM EDT, 14 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE THIS
WEEK...TRACKING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOUNTAIN WAVE CLOUDS ARE KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP OVER PARTS OF THE
NC AND SC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE ARE SOME
CLOUD FREE PATCHES THAT HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S...AND
THERE SHOULD BE SOME PATCHY FROST IN SPOTS. THE THINKING IS THAT THE
WAVE CLOUDS WILL THIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING MORE SPOTS TO
DEVELOP FROST. HOWEVER...DRIER AIR HAS WORKED ACROSS THE UPSTATE
WEST OF SPARTANBURG AND ACROSS THE NC MTNS NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. I/VE
REMOVED THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE NEAR THE TN LINE OVER THE NRN
MTNS THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...TEMPS IN MOST AREAS ARE ABOVE FREEZING.
ALSO...THE HIGH UPSTREAM CLOUD BASES DON/T BODE WELL FOR MUCH PCPN
IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS. STILL...I/LL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS FROM I-26
NORTHWARD ALONG THE TN LINE EARLY TODAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A NICE
DAY WITH MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON WED.
YET ANOTHER NW FLOW SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THE UPSTREAM LLVL AIRMASS LOOKS EVEN DRIER THAN TODAY...AND
THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERATE VERY LITTLE PCPN ALONG THE TN LINE.
HOWEVER...A BROADER AREA OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
MOUNTAINS LATE AT NIGHT SOUTH OF THE WAVE. EAST OF THE MTNS THE
CLOUDS SHOULDN/T MOVE IN TIL AROUND SUNRISE. DEWPOINTS WILL RECOVER
IN THE WEAK SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE. EVEN WITH A BIT OF A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION...MANY AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE AND FROST SHOULD
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN. I/VE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR MOST
NON-MOUNTAIN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS A SMALL PART OF NE
GA AND THE GOLDEN CORNER OF THE UPSTATE WHERE TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE
TOO WARM FOR WIDESPREAD FROST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT 245 AM EDT THURSDAY...A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL S/W WILL TRACK SE
OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING. AS THE DISTURBANCE
DEPARTS...DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE CWA FROM THE NW...RESULTING
IN CLEARING SKY COVER THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. AT THE SFC...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FROM KY. AS THE
HIGH CENTER APPROACHES...NW WINDS SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...SPEEDS RANGING BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASING INSOLATION AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL FAVOR HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF NORMAL.
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER WEAK CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE NC MTNS BY 12Z SAT. WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE DURING THE
EVENING HOURS...REMAINING LIGHT TO CALM ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD FAVOR RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...THE NAM AND GFS INDICATES THAT H85 TEMPS WILL WARM INTO
THE TEENS ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PRE DAWN
HOURS. USING A BLEND OF MOS...MIN TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM NEAR 40 ACROSS THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPSTATE
OF SC...MID TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE NC ZONES. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NC FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR AREAS TO PATCHY
FROST DEVELOPMENT...I WILL HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.
SATURDAY...A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY DURING THE DAY. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. SW
WINDS SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY WARM THE LLVL TEMPERATURE PROFILES DURING
THE DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SW. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY RISE TO OR
A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 3 AM EDT THURSDAY...I WILL USE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE THE PASSAGE OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUN AND MON...FOLLOWED
BY AN AMPLIFYING POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROF MON AND MON NIGHT.
IT APPEARS THAT THE PERIOD OF GREATEST QG FORCING WILL OCCUR WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE H5 TROF MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL
MAINTAIN A CHC POP FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. A FEW TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF I-26. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LIQUID PRECIP. HOWEVER...THE NC
MTNS CLOUD SEE A LITTLE SN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL FAVOR VALUES 6 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...CALM WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST NORTHWEST FOR A
COUPLE HOURS AS A WEAK UPPER LOW CROSSES THE REGION. MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE WAVE. THE CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR TOWARD
SUNRISE AND THE WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AGAIN. THIS WILL FAVOR THE
FORMATION OF FROST. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AND THE
FROST IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY FOR THE MOST PART. WINDS WILL BE
OUT OF THE WEST AGAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AT SPEEDS OF 10 KTS
OR LESS.
AT KAVL...WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD OF THE
TAF. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR. NO RESTRICTIVE
CIGS OR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER A FEW AREAS OF DRIZZLE...
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW FLURRIES WILL AFFECT AREAS NORTHWEST OF
THE AIRFIELD EARLY TODAY.
ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
TO THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL THIN OR CLEAR
BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST EARLY
TODAY...AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST AT 10 KTS OR LESS LATER IN THE
DAY.
OUTLOOK...DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. A FEW SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY LOWER CIGS WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TODAY...RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS
THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND THE UPSTATE OF SC FOR 4 TO 5
HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. GIVEN
LOW RH VALUES AND MARGINALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS...WE WILL HIGHLIGHT
PORTIONS OF NE GA WITH A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ035>037-056-
057-068>072-082.
SC...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
SCZ004>014-019.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ008-009-013-
014.
&&
SYNOPSIS...NED
NEAR TERM...MCAVOY
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...NED
AVIATION...MCAVOY
FIRE WEATHER...NEDHazardous weather outlook, Oct 31, 10:50 PM EDT, 5 hours 19 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1050 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-020300- AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON- 1050 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE AREAS WHICH HAVE SNOW ON THE GROUND. MANY ROADS WILL BE WET FROM MELTING SNOW THIS EVENING AND MAY FREEZE...FORMING BLACK ICE OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. PATCHY LIGHT SNOW OR LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PATCHY BLACK ICE MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ010-017-NCZ062>065-501-503-505-507-509-SCZ001>003-020300- RABUN-HABERSHAM-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS- PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS- 1050 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ018-026-028-SCZ004>007-010-020300- STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-ANDERSON- 1050 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. FROST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ008-009- 011>014-019-020300- ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN- GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE- EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-CHEROKEE-YORK- ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 1050 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM EDT THURSDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FROST ADVISORY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. FROST ADVISORY. FROST IS POSSIBLE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. HG
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Oct 31, 10:21 PM EDT, 5 hours 48 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1021 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012 NCZ033-049-050-011300- AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE 1021 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012 ...BLACK ICE AND A VERY LIGHT WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT... ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AND MOIST AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH LIGHT FREEZING AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK. AN ADDITIONAL DUSTING OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE TENNESSEE BORDER. NORTHWEST WINDS MAY ALSO GUST UP TO 30 MPH AT TIMES TOWARD DAYBREAK. IN ADDITION...SNOW THAT MELTED ON AREA ROADWAYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REFREEZE OVERNIGHT...CAUSING PATCHY BLACK ICE TO FORM. ROADS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER MAY BECOME VERY SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE ROAD SURFACES TO THAW OUT BY MIDDAY. NCZ048-051>053-058-059-011300- MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE... ASHEVILLE...SYLVA 1021 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012 ...BLACK ICE TO DEVELOP ON NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAIN ROADS OVERNIGHT... SNOW THAT MELTED ON AREA ROADWAYS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO REFREEZE OVERNIGHT...CAUSING PATCHY BLACK ICE TO FORM. ROADS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER MAY BECOME VERY SLIPPERY OVERNIGHT THROUGH LATE THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S ON THURSDAY...ALLOWING THE ROAD SURFACES TO THAW OUT BY MIDDAY. GERAPETRITIS
Special weather statement, Nov 1, 3:44 AM EDT, 25 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 344 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-020000- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT- 344 AM EDT THU NOV 1 2012 ...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT... ...HIGH FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING FOR EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA... RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH. THE LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR WILDFIRES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL BURN PERMITTING AUTHORITIES CONCERNING WHETHER YOU MAY BURN OUTDOORS. IF YOU DO BURN OUTSIDE...USE EXTREME CAUTION. NED
Nearby
Frost Advisories in North Carolina, 2012Frost Advisories in South Carolina, 2012Frost Advisories in Georgia, 2012Every frost advisory in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.