Alert archive / North Carolina / Flash Flood Watches in 2012

Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 22, 20127 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this flash flood watch at May 22, 2012, 3:37 AM EDT for 7 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at May 22, 2012, 12:00 PM EDT. It was in force for 10 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
May 22, 2012, 3:37 AM EDT (07:37 UTC)
In effect from
May 22, 2012, 12:00 PM EDT
Expired
May 22, 2012, 9:35 PM EDT
In force
10 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Flood severity
None

Counties Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 07:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2012-05-22Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 368 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2012-05-22The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 22 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
368 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-13 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1650 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
22 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
51 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

738 
WGUS62 KGSP 220737
FFAGSP

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...

.NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT...WHILE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MANY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING.

NCZ033-049-050-053-501-503-505-221600-
/O.NEW.KGSP.FF.A.0003.120522T1600Z-120523T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE
337 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... 
  INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS... 
  BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL MOUNTAINS...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MITCHELL 
  AND YANCEY. 

* FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN LOCALLY VERY
  HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
  MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
  AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER ACROSS THE AREA THIS
  AFTERNOON. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL
  RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THIS
  AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
LANE
4 follow-up statements
635 
WGUS62 KGSP 221544
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1144 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...

.NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT...WHILE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MANY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

NCZ033-049-050-053-501-503-505-230000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0003.120522T1600Z-120523T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE
1144 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MITCHELL AND YANCEY. 

* THROUGH THIS EVENING. 

* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN LOCALLY VERY 
  HEAVY RAINFALL ON MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN 
  MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS 
  AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER ACROSS THE AREA 
  THIS AFTERNOON. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS 
  WILL RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING 
  THIS AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAIN ON 
  MONDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
556 
WGUS62 KGSP 222228
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
628 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...

.NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT...WHILE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MANY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

NCZ033-049-050-053-501-503-505-230400-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-120523T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE
628 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MITCHELL AND YANCEY. 

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT. 

* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN LOCALLY VERY
  HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE
  FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND A VERY MOIST AIR
  MASS WILL RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
  FLOODING THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY
  RAIN ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
140 
WGUS62 KGSP 222229 CCA
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
629 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...

.NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. WEAK WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT...WHILE A VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN MANY
OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEING EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. THIS
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

NCZ033-049-050-053-501-503-505-230400-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-120523T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE
629 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING 
  AREAS...AVERY...BURKE MOUNTAINS...BUNCOMBE...CALDWELL 
  MOUNTAINS...MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS...MITCHELL AND YANCEY. 

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT. 

* SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN LOCALLY VERY
  HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS PART OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND MIDDLE
  FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND A VERY MOIST AIR
  MASS WILL RESULT IN A GREATER THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH
  FLOODING THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY
  RAIN ON MONDAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$
009 
WGUS62 KGSP 230135
FFAGSP

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
935 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

NCZ033-049-050-053-501-503-505-230245-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-120523T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE
935 PM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA HAS
BEEN CANCELLED. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SEEMS TO BE WANING...AS THE
STRONGER STORMS HAVE SHIFTED EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA BLUE
RIDGE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BUT RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE.

$$

ARK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood watch went out at May 22, 3:25 AM EDT, 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 22, 3:25 AM EDT, 12 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST TODAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
DEVELOP AND PERSIST FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 AM...ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
ESPECIALLY THE FAR EASTERN AND FAR WESTERN ZONES. WILL STILL
ADVERTISE AN INCREASE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN NC MTNS
BY SUNRISE...AS UVV IMPROVES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DPVA
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE COVERAGE AND
ESPECIALLY INTENSITY OF CONVECTION LATER TODAY WILL HINGE LARGELY
UPON HOW MUCH (IF ANY) CONVECTION DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING...AND HOW QUICKLY ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
DISSIPATE. AT THIS POINT...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SEEM TO BE IN FAVOR
OF STRONGER CONVECTION. CONSIDERING THE NATURE OF THE FORCING...AND
VERY MOIST PROFILES...LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SPC HAS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK...AND THIS MAKES SENSE IN LIGHT OF DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL AND RESULTANT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHICH THE MODELS
SUGGEST WILL PASS OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
NEVERTHELESS...DESPITE THE IMPROVING WIND FIELDS ALOFT...SHEAR WILL
REMAIN QUITE WEAK... LESS THAN 15 KT IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. THIS MAY
NOT BE ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION ALONG COLD POOLS...SO ANY
ORGANIZATION MAY HAVE TO COME ABOUT DUE TO STRONGER FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH MCV/S. WE WILL MENTION THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
WIND/HAIL IN THE HWO. THE LARGER THREAT MAY STILL RESIDE WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL...AS THE WEAK FLOW WILL PROMOTE SLOW MOVERS WHILE PROFILES
WILL BE VERY MOIST. WE PLAN TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS FROM MIDDLE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY NORTH ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE. THIS WAS THE AREA THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAINFALL
YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...IT SHOULD BE MENTIONED THAT LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE...INCLUDING THE CHARLOTTE METRO
AREA.

WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING...AS
THE UPPER LOW DIGS OVER THE AREA...SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
DIFFLUENT PATTERN EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM TUESDAY...A SLOWLY FILLING 500 MB LOW CENTER WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NE OF THE FORECAST AREA WED THROUGH WED NIGHT. AS IT
TRANSITS THE REGION...A POCKET OF MINUS 15 C OR COLDER H5 TEMPS WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE ERN PIEDMONT THROUGH PEAK HEATING. THE COMBINATION
OF LOW LEVEL WIND CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE MTNS AND THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES OVER THE ERN PIEDMONT WILL REQUIRE FAIRLY SOLID CHC POPS FOR
CONVECTION WED AFTN AND EVENING ACROSS WRN NC...WITH POPS TAPERING
DOWN TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SRN PARTS WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MAY
WRAP BACK INTO THE REGION.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING SRLY AGAIN.
ANTICIPATE SCATTERED MTN TO ISOLATED FOOTHILL/PIEDMONT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THU AFTN DESPITE WARMING PROFILES ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM ABOUT A CATEGORY THU OVER WED VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM TUESDAY...A TROPICAL FEATURE COULD DEVELOP OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON FRIDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD IN THE
LOCATION/TIMING/INTENSITY OF ANY SYSTEM...BUT IT WILL BEAR WATCHING
THROUGH THE WEEK. THE MAIN STORY FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THE LARGE
ANTICYCLONE DEVELOPING OVER THE DEEP S ON FRIDAY...WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING STRONGLY OVER THE ERN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT IN THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE A DEGREE OF CAPPING FOR
CONVECTION...BUT WEAK TRIGGERING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL STILL WARRANT ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL POPS
EACH AFTN/EVENING FRI THROUGH SUNDAY IN THE MTNS. TEMPS WILL
SOAR...WITH MAXES PEAKING IN THE LOWER 90S FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT ON
SATURDAY...WITH MID 80S IN MOST OF THE MTN VALLEYS.

THE MAIN SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE HANDLING
OF ANY OFFSHORE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ANY TROPICAL FEATURE TO GET BLOCKED BY BUILDING HIGH
PRES AND TO LINGER NEAR THE SE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL
SLIGHTLY BY MEMORIAL DAY AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS UNDER THE
RIDGE...BUT STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...REMNANT -SHRA FROM LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION PERSIST JUST
NORTHEAST OF THE AIRFIELD...BUT THESE HAVE REMAINED STATIONARY FOR
SOME TIME NOW AND SHOULD DISSIPATE IN SHORT ORDER. I CANT RULE OUT A
STRAY SHOWER FOR THE DURATION OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW
ENOUGH THAT VCSH WILL BE LEFT OUT OF THE FORECAST. DESPITE THE RAIN
THAT FELL IN THE VICINITY YESTERDAY...THE TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
DID NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG FORMATION AS OF 06Z.
CONVECTION SHOULD BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD...NOT TO MENTION GET AN
EARLIER START TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTUBRANCE AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. CHANCES FOR TS
WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PROB30 BY 17Z...WITH PREVAILING
TSRA EXPECTED BY 20Z. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
WANE DURING THE EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...THE MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN WILL BE THE FOG POTENTIAL AT
KHKY...WHICH EXPERIENCED SOME RAINFALL ON MONDAY...AND WAS REPORTING
A TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION OF ONLY 2 DEGREES AS 05Z. THESE FACTORS
ARE USUALLY A STRONG SIGNAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT KHKY...AND SOME
NEIGHBORING STATIONS WERE ALREADY REPORTING RESTRICTIONS AT 06Z.
SINCE IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE...
WE HAVE HELD OFF ON IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KAVL.
OTHERWISE...CONVECTION SHOULD BE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD...NOT TO
MENTION GET AN EARLIER START TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTUBRANCE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
CHANCES FOR TS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT A VCTS AS EARLY AS
15Z AT KAVL...AND 17Z ELSEWHERE. PREVAILING TSRA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY 17Z AT KAVL...AND NO LATER THAN 20Z ELSEWHERE. COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...DIURNAL SHOWERS AND TSTMS SHOULD RE-DEVELOP AGAIN WED
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE END OF THE
WEEK ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS DUE TO FOG ARE A GOOD BET MAINLY IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     NCZ033-049-050-053-501-503-505.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...JDL
Hazardous weather outlook, May 21, 10:39 PM EDT, 4 hours 58 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1039 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-230245-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
1039 PM EDT MON MAY 21 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL BE EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS...WITH LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. STRONGER
STORMS WILL ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 21, 8:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPMecklenburg44 min
May 21, 9:07 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMecklenburg3 hr
May 22, 3:45 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRutherford45 min
May 22, 4:30 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPBurke, Cleveland, Rutherford60 min
May 22, 5:19 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPJackson41 min
May 22, 5:25 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPAlexander, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba, Iredell65 min
May 22, 5:30 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPRowan45 min
May 22, 5:55 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCabarrus, Rowan50 min
May 22, 6:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPCabarrus, Rowan56 min
May 22, 6:16 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPGaston44 min
May 22, 6:53 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPGaston53 min
May 22, 7:02 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPDavie, Iredell, Rowan58 min
May 22, 7:04 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPDavie, Iredell41 min
May 22, 7:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGSPRowan52 min
May 22, 7:13 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPCabarrus, Mecklenburg47 min
May 22, 7:41 PM EDTAreal Flood AdvisoryGSPMecklenburg109 min
May 22, 7:59 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementGSPDavie46 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Watches in North Carolina, 2012Every flash flood watch in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.