Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

108 
WGUS72 KGSP 012039
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
439 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2012

NCC119-012230-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-120901T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-
439 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL MECKLENBURG
COUNTY UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 437 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE WARNED 
AREA. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES HAVE FALLEN OVER 
THE WARNED AREA.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...
CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...EASTLAND MALL...I-77 AT I-85 AND MINT HILL.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...IRWIN 
CREEK...STEWART CREEK...HEADWATER TO LITTLE SUGAR CREEK...BRIAR 
CREEK...UPPER LITTLE SUGAR CREEK AND MCALPINE CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3514 8064 3513 8066 3516 8087 3530 8086
      3521 8055

$$

RWH

963 
WGUS72 KGSP 012135
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2012

NCC119-012150-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-120901T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-
535 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
MECKLENBURG COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3514 8064 3513 8066 3516 8087 3530 8086
      3521 8055

$$

RWH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ISAAC WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
THE MOST ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1715 UTC UPDATE...SKY COVER AND POPS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN REDUCED IN
THE NEXT FEW HOUSE BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. POPS WERE
INCREASED NEAR MT MITCHELL WHERE CONVECTION WAS ONGOING. WINDS WERE
UPDATED WITH A BLEND OF 06Z ADJMAV AND 12Z NAM.

AT 1000 AM EST SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...WHILE AN UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC WAS LOCATED OVER MO. A COLD FRONT WAS
ANALYZED AT THE SURFACE OVER NJ AND PA...EXTENDING WEST AS A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. SURFACE DEW POINTS
OVER 70 DEGREES COVERED MOST OF THE AREA SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...EXCEPT FOR THE APPALACHIANS.

THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TODAY...WHILE THE RIDGE OVER GA AND THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE MOVING NE TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO TURN WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS
AND PIEDMONT...SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS TODAY. CAPE IS EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. WITH
MOISTURE INCREASING...DRY AIR WILL BECOME LIMITED TO THE SUB CLOUD
LAYER. THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH
WEAK STEERING FLOW...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MOIST PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. WHILE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH
THE EVENING...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING ISOLATED/
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT SATURDAY...GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IS HAD IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE REMNANT TC UPPER LOW OVER THE SHORT RANGE. THE
CLOSED LOW SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A BROAD WAVE MON...THEN PROCEED EAST
OVER THE CWFA AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUE. THERE WILL BE SOME MEASURE OF
OMEGA ENHANCEMENT ACCORDING TO H7/H5 Q/VECT CONVG TRAVERSING THE NRN
ZONES MON...THEN WEAKER DEEP LAYERED FORCING INTO TUE.

MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE HIGH PWATS BOTH DAYS AND LITTLE
CAPE/SHEAR. THUS...WILL EXPECT MAIN DIURNALLY DRIVEN GENERAL
CONVECTION...WITH ISOL/SCT -SHRA OVERNIGHT SUN AND MON. THE BEST
COMBINED LIFT WILL BE ACROSS THE NC MTNS AND THEREFORE WILL EXPECT
THE GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE/AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WENT
A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE WITH QPF AMOUNTS BASED ON A MIX OF THE 09Z
SREF MEAN...WHICH ADDED HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SW NC MTNS AND NRN
NE GA. THE POTENTIAL FOR EXTENDED PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXISTS
AND PERHAPS AN ISOL HYDRO CONCERN...BUT ITS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE
AND WHEN ATTM. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL OR A BIT
BELOW WITH VERY GOOD CLOUD COVER...WHILE MINS SHOULD REMAIN A COUPLE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM EDT SAT...THOUGH THE WEAKENING CIRCULATION OF THE ISAAC
REMNANTS WILL PASS N OF THE REGION TUE THROUGH WED...AN ASSOCIATED
TRAILING TROUGH AXIS WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUE THROUGH
WED. THERE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED DEEP LAYER FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE AT ITS DEEPEST DURING THIS TUE TO WED
TIMEFRAME. 850 MB FLOW MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO AROUND 25 KT ON TUE
AFTN...BUT PROFILES APPEAR TOO MOIST FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE TSTM
THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE GREATER THREAT...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WELL OVER 2 INCHES AND TEMPERATURE
PROFILES HIGHLY SUPPORTIVE FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. THE MAX
TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE TUE AND
WED...BUT STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRUSH THE NRN TIER ON THU...PUSHING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION. DRYING FROM THE NW SHOULD FOLLOW ON
FRI...BUT THE BOUNDARY COULD GET HUNG UP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SRN HALF. WILL HOLD ONTO
SHOTGUN CHC POPS ON THU...WITH ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL TSTMS FRI
AFTN...MAINLY NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE. PERSISTENCE WILL BE A GOOD
FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES UNTIL THE DRYING TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BE GREAT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDER...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO CARRY A RESTRICTION. MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR FOG
AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD
ON SUNDAY...BUT TIMING WILL BE BEST AFTER THE END OF THIS PACKAGE.
GUIDANCE HAS LIGHT WINDS FAVORING THE NORTH TODAY...BACKING TO THE
SW TONIGHT AND REMAINING SW ON SUNDAY...BUT OBSERVED WINDS ARE
ALREADY FROM THE SE.

ELSEWHERE...VCTS WILL BE CARRIED FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL SITES AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE WEST.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS MVFR FOG OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS BY DAWN
SUNDAY...AND IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH GREATER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH THAT IT WILL
OCCUR AT ANY TAF SITES BEFORE THE END OF THIS PACKAGE. LIGHT WINDS
ARE RATHER VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BACK TO THE SW
TONIGHT... REMAINING THERE ON SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST
MID-WEEK...RESULTING IN CONTINUED CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...JAT
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...JAT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-021930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
323 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING. OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER PIEDMONT AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
323 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2012

NCZ071-012015-
MECKLENBURG-
323 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

AT 321 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY
STATIONARY.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  SOUTHPARK MALL...
  CENTER CITY CHARLOTTE...
  I-77 AT I-85...
  EASTLAND MALL...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3513 8064 3512 8094 3530 8098 3537 8072
      3535 8069 3533 8069

RWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
324 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2012

NCZ035-012015-
ALEXANDER-
324 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2012

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ALEXANDER COUNTY THROUGH 415 PM
EDT...

AT 321 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTHWEST OF MILLERSVILLE...OR 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  TAYLORSVILLE...

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS. WATER
LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM
APPROACHES.

LAT...LON 3580 8110 3580 8114 3583 8115 3582 8121
      3581 8122 3581 8125 3581 8132 3599 8133
      3603 8127 3604 8121 3604 8106

RWH