Flash Flood Warning 26, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

547 
WGUS72 KGSP 290005
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

NCC119-290200-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120829T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MECKLENBURG
COUNTY UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...

AT 802 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE BACKBUILDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED HEAVY 
RAINFALL OVER CHARLOTTE FOR THE PAST THREE HOURS HAD LARGELY ENDED. 
HOWEVER...STREAM LEVELS HAVE SHOWN A STRONG RESPONSE...WITH THE GAGE 
AT BRIAR CREEK AT SHAMROCK DRIVE ON THE EAST SIDE OF CHARLOTTE 
WITHIN A FOOT OF FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE 
MAINTAINED FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER HALF HOUR UNTIL IT IS CLEAR THAT ALL 
STREAM LEVELS ARE CRESTING AND NO ADDITIONAL FLOODING WILL 
DEVELOP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. TURN AROUND AND FIND ANOTHER ROUTE.

&&

LAT...LON 3531 8073 3519 8068 3514 8072 3515 8079
      3518 8086 3522 8087 3530 8085 3532 8077

$$

HG

394 
WGUS72 KGSP 290011
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
811 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

NCC119-290026-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FF.W.0026.000000T0000Z-120829T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MECKLENBURG NC-
811 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL MECKLENBURG
COUNTY IS CANCELLED...

AREA STREAM GAGES SHOW THAT STREAM LEVELS HAVE EITHER CRESTED OR ARE 
FALLING AT THIS TIME. EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER 
THE WARNED AREA...ENDING THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS 
BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT 
AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3531 8073 3519 8068 3514 8072 3515 8079
      3518 8086 3522 8087 3530 8085 3532 8077

$$

HG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
454 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS...AS ISAAC CONTINUES
TO MOVES TOWARD THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ALLOWING
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE REGION. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 445 PM...RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL MOISTURE BAND...
ENHANCED BY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIVERGENCE IN THE ENTRANCE
REGION OF AN UPPER JET MAX...CONTINUES TO OOZE SLOWLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE FORECAST AREA. POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED TO
CATEGORICAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND LOWER
PIEDMONT AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...POPS WERE LOWERED
TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE DRIER AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES. BETWEEN
THE NORTHERN ZONES AND THE TROPICAL PRECIP SHIELD...SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THE CWA WILL BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE FLOW AROUND ISAAC AND THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. 12Z MODELS STILL SHOW BROAD JET STREAK AT 250MB EXTENDING
FROM MID ATLANTIC REGION EASTWARD INTO THE OCEAN. OUR AREA REMAINS
IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION BUT MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING
MUCH DIVERGENCE WITH IT. WHAT IS THERE IS MAINLY OVER THE UPSTATE.
SOME CONVERGENCE IMPLIED AT LOW LEVELS BY 850MB AND 925MB WIND
FIELDS...AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. NEAR SATURATED
1000-850MB LAYER ALSO NOTED BUT IT DRIES OUT A LITTLE BY WED AFTN.

SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DOESN/T CHANGE A GREAT DEAL...SO THE
CLOUD BOUNDARY SEEN TODAY ALONG I-40 WILL PROBABLY PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MAINTAINED FORECAST OF LIKELY POPS SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH CAPE TO WARRANT A MENTION
OF THUNDER...BUT GIVEN THE LIMITED AMOUNT WE HAVE OBSERVED TODAY
WITH THE INCOMING PRECIP...THINK MOST OF WEDNESDAY/S ACTIVITY WILL
JUST BE SHOWERS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTED INCREASING POPS A BIT OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHICH WAS PRUDENT GIVEN THE CLEARER SKIES THERE
AIDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION.

SOUTHERLY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS LOOKS TO BRING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR
FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN INCREASES AT 925MB ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 C. USED
MODEL BLENDS WHICH REFLECTED THAT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY...A TRICKY FCST FOR THU THROUGH THU NIGHT.
THE MODELS AGREE GENERALLY WITH PULLING THE REMNANT ERN BANDS OF TC
ISAAC TO THE NE...WHILE THE REMNANT STORM ITSELF MOVES N/LY ACROSS
SRN PLAINS. THE PROBLEM WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF S/W ENERGY AFFECTING
THE CWFA THU AHEAD OF A BUILDING RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE.
THE NAM IS WEAKER WITH THE ULVL ENERGY AND BUILDS IN A STRONG SFC
HIGH QUICKER THAN THE GFS...WHICH LOWERS THE AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE
MOISTURE FOR ANY UPPER WAVE TO WORK WITH. THE GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
KEEPS THINGS ACTIVE AND HIGHLY MOIST ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. A
COMPROMISE BTW THE MODELS WAS TAKEN WITH THE NAM GIVEN A BIT MORE
WEIGHT GIVEN MODEL TRENDS AND REGIONAL COORDINATION.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE WX WILL BE A LOWERING OF POPS AND
QPF THU AND ESP FRI...WHEN THE SFC HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS
THE SE ATL COAST. THE LATEST HPC AND RFC PROGS ACCOUNT FOR THE BEST
PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF GA/SC AND THE EXTREME
SW NC MTNS. AMOUNTS FOR A 3 DAY TOTAL ENDING FRI MORNING SHOULD
GENERALLY BE UNDER ONE INCH...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE
SIGFNT CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. SO...NO HEAVY RAIN OR FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE HAD THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD ATTM. FRI SHOULD REALLY DRY
OUT AS THE UPPER SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND THE RIDGE AXIS TRAVERSES
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. EARLY LOW END CHANCE POPS GOING TO SLIGHT BY
18Z IS NOW ADVERTISED. BOTH DAYS SHOULD BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL TEMP
WISE...WITH FRI PERHAPS REACHING A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
GOOD INSOLATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 1110 AM TUESDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT IS HAD IN THE EXT RANGE LARGE
SCALE ULVL PATTERN. PENDING A DRAMATIC CHANGE IN THE 12Z GFS...WILL
STILL COUNT ON LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CWFA AS THE REMNANTS OF TC
ISSAC CONTINUE TO BE PULLED NE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY BY PREVAILING
W/LYS. A PREFRONTAL TROF LOOKS TO DEVELOP SAT AND INCREASING POPS
INTO THE MID CHANCE RANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS THROUGH DAY 7.
THIS IS SMALL INCREASE IN POPS...BUT GAUGING THE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
QPF RESPONSES AND SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LLVL HIPRES
STRENGTH/POSITION DOESN/T WARRANT LIKELY WORDAGE ATTM. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE HIGH THETA/E AND PW VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE EXT
RANGE...WITH VALUES OVER 2 INS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE...ESP IF THE INCOMING FRONT MON
NIGHT SLOWS OR STALLS ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL BE AROUND
NORMAL SAT AND SUN AS A SW/LY FLOW DOMINATES. HOWEVER...MAXES
REACHING A COUPLE CATS BELOW NORMAL IS ANTICIPATED MON WITH HIGH
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP...AND BELOW NORMAL AGAIN ON TUE WITH A
POSSIBLE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS MIXING IN.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECTING CLOUD BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH TO GENERALLY PERSIST
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD NORTH INTO THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS WELL...PROBABLY NOT AFFECTING THE AIRPORT CONTINUOUSLY...AS
ONE WOULD EXPECT FROM SHOWERS. SHOWERS MAY BRING PERIODS OF MVFR
VSBY. TRIED TO REFLECT POSSIBILITY OF LOW CEILINGS AGAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE.

ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONCERNS WITH SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD
AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW CEILINGS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOULD
STAY PRETTY CLOUDY OVER THE SC SITES WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. IFR OR LIFR CIGS ARE LIKELY AT KGSP AND KGMU...AND ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE AT KAND...BUT DID NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO MENTION
THERE. GUIDANCE SUPPORTED MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG BUT KEPT CEILINGS
THERE A LITTLE HIGHER.

OUTLOOK...LINGERING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTING WITH A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD LEAD TO PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR MAINLY
DIURNAL SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH LATE WEEK.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...JDL/JW
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...JW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-291930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
325 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING.
THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. ALSO...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND
LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING COULD DEVELOP ACROSS POOR DRAINAGE AND
LOW LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
527 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

NCZ071-282215-
MECKLENBURG-
527 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...HEAVY RAINFALL AFFECT CENTRAL MECKLENBURG COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM
EDT...

AT 523 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SLOWLY MOVING THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR UNC
CHARLOTTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WAS
PRODUCING RAINFALL AT RATES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH PER HOUR.

THIS STORM WILL IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR...
  UNC CHARLOTTE...

NEAR BANKFULL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN DOBY CREEK AND THE
HEADWATERS AREA TO LITTLE SUGAR CREEK. IN ADDITION...THE HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS ANY FLOODED ROADS.

LAT...LON 3517 8074 3530 8090 3545 8077 3542 8075
      3540 8077 3535 8069 3527 8067 3525 8063

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
615 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

SCZ009-282300-
YORK-
615 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER EASTERN
YORK COUNTY THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

AT 613 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SERIES OF BACKBUILDING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST OF ROCK
HILL. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING VERY LITTLE AND WERE PRODUCING
RAINFALL AT RATES IN EXCESS OF ONE INCH PER HOUR. FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS LIKELY BETWEEN ROCK HILL...FORT
MILL...AND TEGA CAY THROUGH 7 PM. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS
ANY FLOODED ROADS.

LAT...LON 3484 8107 3500 8114 3511 8104 3509 8106
      3506 8106 3505 8103 3511 8094 3506 8089
      3501 8090 3495 8086 3492 8086

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 PM EDT TUE AUG 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HEAVY RAIN       1 ESE TEGA CAY          35.03N 80.99W
08/28/2012  M2.00 INCH       YORK               SC   PUBLIC

            2 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR SINCE 530 PM IN A 75 MINUTE
            PERIOD. REPORTED THROUGH COCORAHS NETWORK.

0655 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 NNW ROCK HILL         34.98N 81.06W
08/28/2012  M1.66 INCH       YORK               SC   ASOS

            ROCK HILL AIRPORT HAS HAD 1.66 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR AND
            STILL RAINING. STARTED AROUND 515 PM.

&&

OUTLAW