Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

805 
WGUS72 KGSP 052312
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NCC087-115-060400-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120806T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAYWOOD NC-MADISON NC-
712 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND
NORTH CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 707 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAD MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL RATES HAVE DECREASED IN THE LAST HOUR... 
STREAMS AND CREEKS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE FROM THE EARLIER HEAVY 
RAINFALL...AND ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ARE 
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA.

RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO 
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING IN HAYWOOD 
COUNTY INCLUDE...THE PIGEON RIVER...HURRICANE CREEK...AND COLD
SPRINGS CREEK...AND IN MADISON COUNTY...LITTLE CREEK...MEADOW   
FORK...AND ROARING FORK.WATERVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8280 3565 8305 3577 8314 3578 8310
      3580 8308 3578 8299 3584 8292 3587 8292
      3589 8291 3590 8289

$$

07

595 
WGUS72 KGSP 060031
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
831 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NCC087-115-060400-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120806T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAYWOOD NC-MADISON NC-
831 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND
NORTH CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 827 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL HAD MOVED AWAY FROM THE 
WARNED AREA. RAINFALL OF UP TO THREE INCHES HAD FALLEN WITH THOSE 
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MOVING INTO THE AREA IS NOT 
EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY.

RUNOFF CONTINUING FROM THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EARLIER THIS EVENING 
WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL 
EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING IN HAYWOOD COUNTY INCLUDE...THE PIGEON 
RIVER...HURRICANE CREEK...AND COLD SPRINGS CREEK...AND IN MADISON 
COUNTY...LITTLE CREEK...MEADOW   FORK...AND ROARING FORK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8280 3565 8305 3577 8314 3578 8310
      3580 8308 3578 8299 3584 8292 3587 8292
      3589 8291 3590 8289

$$

07

328 
WGUS72 KGSP 060156
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
956 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NCC087-115-060400-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120806T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAYWOOD NC-MADISON NC-
956 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN MADISON AND
NORTH CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT...

AT 952 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL WAS MOVING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. EARLIER 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED IN EXCESS OF THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE 
WARNED AREA.

CONTINUING RUNOFF FROM EARLIER EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH 
FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH 
FLOODING  IN HAYWOOD COUNTY INCLUDE...THE PIGEON RIVER...HURRICANE 
CREEK...AND COLD SPRINGS CREEK...AND IN MADISON COUNTY...LITTLE 
CREEK...MEADOW FORK...AND ROARING FORK.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR 
OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA...MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND 
IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE 
IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

&&

LAT...LON 3576 8280 3565 8305 3577 8314 3578 8310
      3580 8308 3578 8299 3584 8292 3587 8292
      3589 8291 3590 8289

$$

07

703 
WGUS72 KGSP 060356
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1156 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

NCC087-115-060411-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-120806T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HAYWOOD NC-MADISON NC-
1156 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
MADISON AND NORTH CENTRAL HAYWOOD COUNTIES WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT MIDNIGHT EDT...

THE MAJORITY OF EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE 
WARNED AREA. STREAMS AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR 
WERE BEGINNING TO RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS 
BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT 
AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3576 8280 3565 8305 3577 8314 3578 8310
      3580 8308 3578 8299 3584 8292 3587 8292
      3589 8291 3590 8289

$$

JPT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
424 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST FROM TENNESSEE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS MOIST TROPICAL AIR MOVES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.
THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE LATER IN THE WEEK AS ERNESTO
IMPACTS MEXICO.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TEMP AND DEWPOINT FIELDS
BASED ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND MIXING. SKY COVER WAS BLENDED WITH
THE LATEST VSBY REPRESENTATION AND MODIFIED THE HR/LY GRIDS
ACCORDINGLY THROUGH 00Z. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR POPS OR THUNDER.
STILL EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NON/MTNS
WITH DRIER AIR MIXING IN FROM THE MID LEVELS AND NEARLY STEADY STATE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE NC MTNS OVER THE NEXT 3 HRS.

AS OF 235 PM...HEALTHY CU FIELD ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 WILL COMBINE
WITH AN NORTHWEST TRACKING BOUNDARY FROM THE EAST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. W/V SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE FL/GA LINE AND
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN...SPREADING NW. TO THE WEST...ANOTHER PLUME
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION ACROSS KY/TN.
LATEST CAPE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WIDE AREA OF 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE
FROM THE EAST...AS RIDGE TOP CONVECTION INCREASE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING...PRE FRONTAL CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...LIKELY DISSIPATING DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS. OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AT FFC AND GSO INDICATE THAT STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD REMAIN HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...POSSIBLE NEAR 10 KTS.
HOWEVER...PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. FZL SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 15 KFT WITH LITTLE TO NO DCAPE. IT APPEARS THAT
HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN THE MOST LIKELY THREAT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT...SHRA AND TSRA WILL
GRADUALLY FADE AFTER SUNSET...LINGERING A LITTLE LATER OVER THE
MTNS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO AROUND NORMAL.

MONDAY...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...THEN STALLING OVER THE
VIRGINIAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN THE MID LEVELS...A S/W
IS EXPECTED TO RIPPLE WEST TO EAST...REACHING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
VERY MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE. THE COMBINATION OF THE SFC
FRONT...MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE...AND WARM AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD RESULT IN GREATER COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THAN TODAY. I WILL
FORECAST HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIAL APPEARS LOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN 3 TO 6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUN...A WEAK TROPICAL LOW WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TO A
POSITION ACROSS SRN AL ON TUE. THIS WILL PUT THE REGION IN A FAIRLY
LIGHT BUT VERY MOIST SLY FLOW. A DIFFUSE SFC FRONT WILL BE LOCATED
ACROSS THE NC MTNS BENEATH AN H5 SHEAR AXIS. THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WELL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN ON TUE. LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IF ANY SORT OF MCV/S SPIN UP IN THE TROPICAL
AIRMASS AND LOCALLY INCREASE THE LLVL UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE HEIGHTENED BY THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC JET WHICH WILL BE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. ANY SORT OF UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET WILL ALSO INDUCE A LLVL ADJUSTMENT AND
INCREASE THE FLOW OUT OF THE SE...AIDING UPSLOPE AND
CONVERGENCE...SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL

ON WEDNESDAY THE TROPICAL LOW ITSELF WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NE.
OTHERWISE THE PATTERN IS LARGELY THE SAME WITH THE HIGH PW
AIRMASS...H5 SHEAR AXIS AND STATIONARY FRONT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE
MTNS. THIS WILL YIELD ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL ONCE AGAIN FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOW APPROACHES EITHER LATE WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A LOT WILL DEPEND ON THE LOW TRACK AND WHERE THE
STRONGEST LLVL CONVERGENCE SETS UP...BUT FLOODING IS A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY MON NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
FOR THE DURATION OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...CARVING OUT AN INCREASINGLY
DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE GFS MAINTAINS A SFC BNDRY
OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH PLENTY OF CAPE THU-SAT. THE ECMWF DIGS
IT/S ENERGY A LITTLE FARTHER WEST AND HAS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER LAYER
RH VALUES ALL THREE DAYS. THE GFS BEING DRIER ALOFT WOULD IMPLY MORE
OF A SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY WITH A BELT OF 30 KT WESTERLIES. THE
ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT HEAVIER PCPN AMOUNTS BUT LESS OF A SEVERE RISK.
BOTH SOLUTIONS WARRANT CARRYING HEALTHY CHANCE POPS ALL THREE DAYS.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS WHILE
MIN TEMPS WILL RUN A LITTLE ABOVE. THE ECMWF HAS OUR FIRST TASTE OF
COOLER/DRIER AIR OF THE SEASON ON SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT PUSHING TO
THE COAST AND LIFTED INDEX VALUES WELL ABOVE ZERO - A SIGN OF MORE
STABLE AIRMASS. THE LATEST GFS ALSO LOOKS MORE STABLE ON SUNDAY AND
DAY 7 POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HEALTHY CU FIELD ALONG AND EAST OF I-85 WILL
COMBINE WITH AN NORTHWEST TRACKING BOUNDARY FROM THE EAST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT TERMINALS FROM KAND NE TO KCLT
WILL IN THE MOST LIKELY REGION FOR SHRA AND TSRA THROUGH MID
EVENING. I WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF VCSH OR VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR EACH PIEDMONT TAF. KAVL MAY ALSO SEE A VCSH...BUT LIKELY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF DEVELOP MVFR CLOUDS AROUND SUNRISE
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 11Z TO 15Z. KAVL MAY SEE IFR FOG AND
CEILINGS AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY. STALLING COLD FRONT...PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR GREATER SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE MON
AFTERNOON...I WILL MENTION EITHER A PROB30 OR VCTS LATE IN THE TAF
WINDOW.

OUTLOOK...VERY MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL INTO THE
WORK WEEK. EXPECTING SCT/NUM AFTN-EVE TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH
DAY THRU AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. MTN VLYS WILL SEE BEST CHANCE OF
MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...PAT
NEAR TERM...NED/SBK
SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
409 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-062015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
409 PM EDT SUN AUG 5 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE
STORMS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK TROPICAL LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST LIFTS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION EACH DAY. VERY HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND A FEW
LOCATIONS MAY SEE ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

MCAVOY