Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

418 
WGUS72 KGSP 311953
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

SCC045-010000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120801T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENVILLE SC-
353 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL GREENVILLE
COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 351 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
RAIN HAD COME TO AN END ACROSS THE WARNED AREA BUT EXCESSIVE RUNOFF
CONTINUES. FLOODING WAS REPORTED ALONG THE REEDY BASIN AND CLEVELAND
PARK WAS CLOSED. PARTS OF BRUSHY CREEK WERE ALSO REPORTED OUT OF
IT/S BANK.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLASH FLOODING INCLUDE...DOWNTOWN
GREENVILLE...CHERRYDALE POINT...FURMAN UNIVERSITY...GREER...HAYWOOD
MALL...MAULDIN...PELHAM ROAD AT I-85...SHOPS AT GREENRIDGE...
TAYLORS...TRAVELERS REST AND WHITE HORSE ROAD AT I-85.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR
IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8245 3482 8248 3483 8248 3484 8249
      3488 8249 3492 8252 3497 8253 3501 8222
      3476 8222 3476 8246

$$

CSH

707 
WGUS72 KGSP 312051
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
451 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

SCC045-010000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120801T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENVILLE SC-
451 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL GREENVILLE
COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 447 PM EDT...AUTOMATED STREAM GAGES INDICATED THAT FLOODING WAS
LINGERING ACROSS PARTS OF THE REEDY RIVER AND BRUSHY CREEK BASINS
BUT STREAM LEVELS HAD CRESTED AND SHOULD FALL SLOWLY INTO THE EARLY 
EVENING. PLEASE REMAIN WARY OF LINGERING HIGH WATER CONDITIONS AND 
ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS ACROSS GREATER GREENVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR
IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8246 3477 8245 3484 8249 3488 8249
      3490 8251 3491 8250 3492 8252 3494 8238
      3492 8223 3476 8222

$$

CSH

896 
WGUS72 KGSP 312154
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
554 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

SCC045-010000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120801T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENVILLE SC-
554 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL GREENVILLE
COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 551 PM EDT...AUTOMATED STREAM GAGES INDICATED THAT FLOODING WAS 
LINGERING JUST ACROSS THE REEDY RIVER PROPER...BUT A STEADY FALL 
ACROSS THE UPPER AND MIDDLE REEDY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS 
EVENING.

MOTORISTS ARE REMINDED TO PLEASE REMAIN WARY OF LINGERING HIGH 
WATER CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED STREAM LEVELS ACROSS GREATER 
GREENVILLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR
IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3476 8246 3477 8245 3482 8248 3483 8248
      3484 8249 3488 8248 3489 8243 3488 8239
      3481 8230 3476 8227

$$

CSH

693 
WGUS72 KGSP 312233
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
633 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

SCC045-010000-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120801T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
GREENVILLE SC-
633 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR CENTRAL GREENVILLE
COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 632 PM EDT...AUTOMATED STREAM GAGES INDICATED THAT THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER REEDY RIVER LEVEL CONTINUES TO FALL...AND IS EXPECTED TO 
RETURN TO WITHIN IT/S BANKS SHORTLY. THIS WARNING WILL EXPIRE ON 
SCHEDULE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT OR
IN A VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3477 8240 3480 8240 3482 8241 3485 8243
      3487 8242 3485 8237 3480 8233 3476 8230
      3476 8240

$$

CSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
113 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND LINGER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE NORTH ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 920 AM...WIDESPREAD SHWRS AND WIDELY SCT TSTMS WERE MOVG IN
FROM THE W AS EXPECTED THIS MRNG. TEMPS WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER SO
BUMPED THEM DOWN ACCORDINGLY. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP AIRMASS MORE STABLE TODAY SO...ALTHO THERE MAY BE A FEW STRONG
STORMS...THE SEVERE THREAT IS SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED
BY SPC.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. LIKELY TO SOLID CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK
GOOD TO START THE PERIOD OVER THE FAR WESTERN AREAS.

EARLIER DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES...AS A BAND OF DEEP LAYER RH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS
INTO THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF POTENT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THE
MCS TRACK THIS MORNING IS SETTING UP W/IN THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TENN VALLEY...AND THIS AREA
(ALABAMA/CENTRAL GEORGIA AND POINTS SOUTH) WILL SEE BY FAR THE
GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING. FOR OUR
AREA...THE SEVERE WEATHER PICTURE IS MUDDIER. EXPANDING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH EXPANDING SHOWER COVERAGE ACROSS
OUR WESTERN AREAS WILL CERTAINLY NOT HELP WITH DESTABILIZATION. IN
FACT...NONE OF THE MODELS DEVELOP A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND EVEN THE HIGHEST SREF PROBABILITIES OF > 1000 CAPE
IS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEAR TO BE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES...WHERE CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE
LESS...AND FORCING  FAIRLY WEAK THIS MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN
CONVECTION  HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE ATMOSPHERE HAS HAD SOME TIME TO
DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...I THINK THE GREATEST CHANCES
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND COASTAL PLAIN...WHICH SHOULD DESTABILIZE
NICELY TODAY. THE GREATER THREAT IN OUR AREA MAY PROVE TO BE HEAVY
RAINFALL IN THE UNSEASONABLY MOIST AIR MASS. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS TOPPED BY NW FLOW ALOFT COULD RESULT IN SOME
ANCHORING OF CELLS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WHILE AREAS OF TRAINING
CELLS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...DECENT FORCING ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES IN THE FORM OF
DPVA EARLY IN THE DAY...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE W/IN EXIT REGION OF AN
UPPER JET MAX OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHOULD YIELD NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. MUCH OF OUR EASTERN
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE CHANCE POP CATEGORY. WITH THE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MAX TEMPS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW
CLIMO...WITH NEAR NORMAL VALUES EXPECTED OVER THE EAST.

TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER JET CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHEAST...THE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BE SHUNTED EAST OF THE AREA. CHANCE POPS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ZONES THIS EVENING...WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING A POP-FREE FORECAST BY SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM EDT TUE...A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF PLAINS RIDGING AND E
COAST TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE WED THROUGH THU. WEAK SHORTWAVES MAY
MOVE INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS IN THE NW FLOW BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES...BUT THEY REMAIN POORLY RESOLVED IN THE MODELS AND WILL BE
HARD TO TIME. THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT DECAYING CONVECTION
COULD MAKE A RUN SOUTHEAST FROM THE OH VALLEY WED MORNING...BUT MOST
MODELS THAT HAVE THIS ACTIVITY SHOW IT PASSING BY TO THE W OR DRYING
UP BEFORE ARRIVAL. WILL THUS FEATURE MORE OF A DIURNAL PATTERN TO
THE WED CONVECTION...WITH SCT TSTMS TRIGGERING NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
WED AFTN...AND AT LEAST ISOLD COVERAGE EXTENDING OUT OVER THE
PIEDMONT INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY HIGH
AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN ALOFT. SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY ROBUST WITH 20 TO
30 KT OF NW FLOW ALOFT. IF THESE BETTER MID LEVEL WINDS PAN
OUT...PROFILES COULD BE MARGINAL FOR ISOLD NW FLOW SUPERCELLS WITH
ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ABOUT 5 DEGREES
OVER TUE VALUES.

A MORE TYPICAL WARM SECTOR PATTERN WILL RETURN ON THU WILL BL WINDS
TOGGLING MORE SW. WITH LIMITED TRIGGERING...ONLY ISOLD COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD GAIN AT LEAST ANOTHER
CATEGORY OVER WED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM EDT TUESDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL TRANSITION OVER
THE WEEKEND FROM A MEAN TROUGH OVER THE SE U.S. TO A FLAT RIDGE.
THEREFORE...THE ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS PATTERN FAVORS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME SENSIBLE WEATHER.
THEREFORE...WE A EXPECT A STRONG DIURNAL PATTERN TO THE DAILY
CONVECTION. HOWEVER WITH WEAKLY UPSLOPE FLOW...SOME NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE AVERAGE SAT AND SUN.

A MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT A VIGOUROUS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES SUN THROUGH MON WHICH WILL CAUSE HEIGHTS TO
GRADUALLY FALL AGAIN ACROSS THE SE. A SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE AREA ON MON WHILE AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE IN THE DAY AND MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MON
NIGHT. HPC KEEPS THE FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA INTO TUE...BUT ECM
TAKES THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUE WITH THE GFS
LAYING THE FRONT OVER THE AREA. THESE TRIGGERING MECHANISMS SUPPORT
MORE SOLID POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR MON INTO TUE. MAX TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE ABOVE AVERAGE WITH 80S MTNS AND LOWER 90S PIEDMONT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...AS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES IN EXPECT
AT LEAST TEMPO MVFR CIG WITH PERIODS OF IFR EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SHWRS. SCT TS ALSO PSBL WITH A TEMPO TS 18-22Z. CONVECTION WILL
TAPER OFF THIS EVE WITH MVFR VSBY AROUND DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL BE LGT
THRU THE PD.

ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD SHWRS WITH AT LEAST ISOLD TS ARE EXPECTED
THRU THE AFTN-EARLY EVE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU. TEMPO MVFR/IFR
PSBL. SHOULD SEE IMPROVEMENT FROM THE NW THIS EVE. WINDS WILL STAY
LGT. IFR FOG/CIGS LIKELY AROUND DAYBREAK SHOULD LIFT BY MID MRNG.

OUTLOOK...SCT AFTN-EVE TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. MTN VLYS WILL
SEE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JOH
NEAR TERM...JDL/RB
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...LG
AVIATION...RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-010945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-
ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
535 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM THE WEST
TODAY...PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST GEORGIA...AND MOST OF UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE
ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND THE EASTERN UPSTATE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
ISOLATED FLOODING COULD DEVELOP IN ANY LOCATION REPEATEDLY
AFFECTED BY STORMS. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO FORWARD ANY REPORTS OF LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...OR FLASH FLOODING TO OUR OFFICE.

GERAPETRITIS