Excessive Heat Warning 1, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AND UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...BRINGING A MAJOR HEAT WAVE TO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK BELOW 100 DEGREES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRI...ANOMOLOUS UPPER HIGH CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS TODAY WILL MOVE SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE GA/SC BORDER ON
SAT. TEMP FIELDS ARE 4-5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH THIS
FEATURE. TODAY'S MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT HAVE ALREADY REACHED
RECORD LEVELS. THE MOUNTAINS HAVE BEEN SPARED THE SEARING HEAT TODAY
AS SOME STUBBORN CLOUDS AROUND 20KFT KEEP GENERATING DUE TO A MOIST
NOSE AROUND 17KFT AND ELEVATED CAPE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE
ON THE THESE CLOUDS AS THE GUIDANCE DOES NOT REFLECT THEM. BUFKIT
INDICATES THEY MAY WELL PERSIST...SO WILL HAVE TO MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
QUITE WARM WITH MINS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT...BUT
LIKELY STAYING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S URBAN AREAS LIKE CHARLOTTE
AND GREENVILLE. WILL NUDGE UP MINS FROM GUIDANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS
DUE TO THE INSOLATING CLOUDS REMAINING.

ANOTHER THING TO WATCH FOR OVERNIGHT IS A MCS MOVING RAPIDLY SE OUT
OF THE OHIO VALLEY. THE HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE THAT THE BULK OF IT
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH VA...BUT PERHAPS CLIP NORTHERN NC. WILL BRING
POPS UP TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM  THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EAST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT IN THE 00Z-06Z TIMEFRAME.

THE BIG STORY ON SAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RECORD HEAT. A BLEND OF
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AND BIAS CORRECTED NUMBERS WORK OUT TO MATCH WHAT
THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME SUPPORTS FOR MAX TEMPS ON SAT. THAT
IS: 105 AT BOTH GSP AND CLT. IT WILL LIKELY BE A COUPLE DEGREES
LOWER ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND NORTHERN NC PIEDMONT (103) AND A
COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UPSTATE AND PARTS OF NE GA
(107). THE NAM AND TO A LESSOR EXTENT THE GFS DEVELOP A THERMAL
TYPE LOW ON THE GA/SC BORDER ON SAT WHICH IN EFFFECT TURNS THE WINDS
TO A SE DIRECTION. THE UPSHOT OF THIS IS THAT DEWPOINTS WILL NOT MIX
OUT AS MUCH SAT AFTERNOON WHICH WILL ALLOW APPARENT TEMPS TO HIT 110
OR SO FROM THE CHARLOTTE METRO AREA...SW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
UPSTATE INTO ELBERT COUNTY GA. WILL POST AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
FOR THAT AREA. WILL BUFFER THE WANRING WITH A HEAT ADVISORY TO THE
NORTH FOR ALL NON-MOUNTAIN AREAS.

MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LFC'S WILL GRADUALLY LOWER ON SAT TO
PERHAPS 6KFT IN THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY BE LOW ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION
TO FIRE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED POPS MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS W OF THE
AREA...THICKNESS VALUES STAY HIGH OVER THE REGION AND HEAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE COMING
WEEK. USING A MOS BLEND...AND THE LOCAL THICKNESS SCHEME...YIELDS
HIGHS AT OR ABOVE RECORD LEVELS AGAIN SUN AND MON. DEWPOINTS SHOULD
MIX OUT A LITTLE SUN AFTN SO EXPECT THE HEAT INDEX TO BE LIMITED TO
ADVSRY LVLS...GENERALLY ALONG AND S OF I-85 SUN...THEN WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER THICKNESS AND A FEW MORE CLOUDS...A DEG OR TWO COOLER MON.

FCST SOUNDINGS REMAIN UNSTABLE BOTH AFTNS BUT LFC'S REMAIN ABOVE 10K
FT AGL...SO IT REMAINS UNLIKELY THERE WILL BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE OR
HEATING TO LIFT SIG MOISTURE TO THAT LEVEL. CIN DOES DIMINISH
HOWEVER AND WITH HIGH CAPE LATE IN THE DAY THE CHC OF CONVECTION IS
NON-ZERO. WITH THIS IN MIND WE HELD ON TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE MTNS INTO THE NC PIEDMONT LATE SUN. WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW
POINTS EXPECT SLIGHT CHC POPS ACROSS THE CWA MON AFTN-EVE. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A NEED TO MONITOR MCS DEVELOPMENT TO THE NW LATE
SUN-MON FOR PSBL ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMNANTS MOVG INTO THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
TUESDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF AXIS LOCATED OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
UPPER RIDGING PERSISTING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE LONG RANGE
MODELS GENERATE MULTIPLE LOBES OF UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT RIPPLE
DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE DURING THE FIRST HALF OR SO
OF THE PERIOD...WITH HEIGHTS STARTING TO RISE AGAIN TOWARDS THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST 12Z GFS DOES TRY TO SUPPRESS THE UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST MORE THAN THE ECMWF DOES BY GENERATING A MORE WELL
DEFINED UPPER TROF OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON THURS AND FRI.

AT THE SFC...MAX TEMPS WILL LIKELY DROP BACK BELOW 100 ON TUES AND
THEN DOWN TO THE MID 90S BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE
IS SUPPRESSED TO THE WEST. STILL EXPECTING MAINLY DIURNAL CHANCES
FOR TSRA EACH DAY WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE GENERATING HIGHER POPS ON
WED AND THURS AFTERNOON/EVENINGS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHER
THAN A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...AND THE HEAT...IT LOOKS LIKE A WIND FCST.
THE LEE TROF AS EXPECTED HAS SET UP WELL TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
WHICH HAS INDUCED MAINLY NW WINDS TODAY. EXPECT WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ON SAT...THE NAM GENERATES A THERMAL
LOW OVER E GA WHICH WILL SERVE TO PRODUCE NE WINDS EARLY...VEERING
MAINLY SE.

OUTLOOK...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HOT AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN VFR. ISOLD TO SCT DIURNAL MTN CONVECTION WILL RETURN
OVER THE WEEKEND MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN SLOWLY.

AN EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLE SHOWING THE
PERCENTAGE OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING WITH THE SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CATEGORY IS AVAILABLE AT FOLLOWING LINK (USE LOWER CASE)...

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION/TABLES.HTM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BOTH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER TODAY WITH DEWPOINTS
REMAINING NEARLY STEADY FROM READINGS ON THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD
PRODUCE AFTERNOON RH VALUES BELOW THE CRITICAL 25 PERCENT THRESHOLD
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FOLLOWING COORDINATION WITH FFC...WILL POST A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT FOR STEPHENS THROUGH ELBERT COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE APPROACHED AND POSSIBLY
EXCEEDED...

AVL
JUNE 29TH 98 IN 1936
JUNE 30TH 95 IN 1952
JULY 1ST  96 IN 1954
JULY 2ND  93 IN 1970

GSP
JUNE 29TH 101 IN 1931
JUNE 30TH 100 IN 1959
JULY 1ST   99 IN 1970
JULY 2ND  101 IN 1954

CLT
JUNE 29TH 102 IN 1945
JUNE 30TH 102 IN 1959
JULY 1ST   99 IN 1954
JULY 2ND  101 IN 1931

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ029.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ018-026-
     028.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     GAZ029.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ036-037-057-
     068>072-082.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068-069-502-504-506-508-510.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     NCZ070>072-082.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ006>009-
     011>014-019.
     HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ004>008-
     010.
     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     SCZ009-011>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARK
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...RB
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG
FIRE WEATHER...
CLIMATE...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
447 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

GAZ018-026-028-300900-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-
447 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS
SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH DAY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL
LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED.

HEAT IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER. PLAN TO LIMIT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND TO THE MORNINGS AND EVENINGS.
CHECK ON THE ELDERLY...THOSE WITH MEDICAL ISSUES...AND OTHERS WHO
MAY BE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-035-048>053-056-058-059-062>065-501>510-SCZ001>005-
010-300900-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-ALEXANDER-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-
HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-
447 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS
SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH DAY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL
LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED.

HEAT IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER. PLAN TO LIMIT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND TO THE MORNINGS AND EVENINGS.
CHECK ON THE ELDERLY...THOSE WITH MEDICAL ISSUES...AND OTHERS WHO
MAY BE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ036-037-057-068>072-082-SCZ006>009-011>014-019-300900-
IREDELL-DAVIE-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-
UNION NC-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
447 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS
SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH DAY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL
LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED.

HEAT IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER. PLAN TO LIMIT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND TO THE MORNINGS AND EVENINGS.
CHECK ON THE ELDERLY...THOSE WITH MEDICAL ISSUES...AND OTHERS WHO
MAY BE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ029-300900-
ELBERT-
447 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...
...FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   FIRE DANGER STATEMENT.
   HEAT ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A MAJOR HEAT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST LOCATIONS IN THE PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS
SHOULD REACH OR EXCEED 100 DEGREES EACH DAY. THE HEAT INDEX WILL
LIKELY REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN SOME LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AREAS WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED.

HEAT IS THE NUMBER ONE WEATHER RELATED KILLER. PLAN TO LIMIT
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS WEEKEND TO THE MORNINGS AND EVENINGS.
CHECK ON THE ELDERLY...THOSE WITH MEDICAL ISSUES...AND OTHERS WHO
MAY BE ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO THE HEAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.