Storm Watch 1, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

712 
WHUS73 KGRR 190907
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
407 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012

LMZ844>849-191715-
/O.CON.KGRR.GL.W.0035.121220T0600Z-121221T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGRR.SR.A.0001.121221T0000Z-121222T0600Z/
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
407 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...EAST WINDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 35 TO 40 KNOT
  GALES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY AND BECOME
  VARIABLE. NORTH WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
  50 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW.
  WAVES WILL THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
  TO POTENTIALLY 15 TO 20 FEET AND LIKELY HIGHER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

NJJ

102 
WHUS73 KGRR 191527
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1027 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012

LMZ844>849-192330-
/O.CON.KGRR.GL.W.0035.121220T0600Z-121221T0000Z/
/O.CON.KGRR.SR.A.0001.121221T0000Z-121222T0600Z/
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1027 AM EST WED DEC 19 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

* WINDS...EAST WINDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 35 TO 40 KNOT 
  GALES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY AND BECOME 
  VARIABLE. NORTH WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH 
  AS 50 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. 

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. 
  WAVES WILL THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND 
  FRIDAY TO POTENTIALLY 15 TO 20 FEET AND LIKELY HIGHER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

A STORM WATCH IS ISSUED WHEN THE RISK OF STORM FORCE WINDS OF
48 TO 63 KNOTS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASED...BUT THE SPECIFIC
TIMING AND/OR LOCATION IS STILL UNCERTAIN.  IT IS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LEAD TIME FOR MARINERS WHO MAY WISH TO
CONSIDER ALTERING THEIR PLANS.

&&

$$

OSTUNO

901 
WHUS73 KGRR 192035
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
335 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

LMZ844>849-200445-
/O.CON.KGRR.GL.W.0035.121220T0600Z-121221T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KGRR.SR.A.0001.121221T0000Z-121222T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KGRR.SR.W.0003.121221T0000Z-121222T0600Z/
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
335 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY. THE STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

* WINDS...EAST WINDS INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO 35 TO 40 KNOT
  GALES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BRIEFLY LATE THURSDAY AND BECOME
  VARIABLE. NORTH WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
  55 KNOTS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

* WAVES...BUILDING TO 2 TO 4 FEET THURSDAY WITH OFFSHORE FLOW. 
  WAVES WILL THEN INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THURSDAY NIGHT AND 
  FRIDAY TO POTENTIALLY 15 TO 20 FEET AND LIKELY HIGHER. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A STORM WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 48 TO 63 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. RECREATIONAL BOATERS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT...OR TAKE
SHELTER UNTIL WINDS AND WAVES SUBSIDE. COMMERCIAL VESSELS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR VERY STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS...AND
CONSIDER REMAINING IN PORT OR TAKING SHELTER IN PORT UNTIL WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE.

A GALE WARNING MEANS WINDS OF 34 TO 47 KNOTS ARE IMMINENT OR
OCCURING. OPERATING A VESSEL IN GALE CONDITIONS REQUIRES
EXPERIENCE AND PROPERLY EQUIPPED VESSELS. IT IS HIGHLY
RECOMMENDED THAT MARINERS WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE SEEK SAFE
HARBOR PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF GALE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
835 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

SOME LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THEN A POWERFUL WINTER
STORM WILL BRING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW WITH HIGH WINDS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE BAD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IN
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF ISSUING AN UPDATE TO THE FCST PACKAGE FOR
THE WEATHER THIS EVENING. PCPN IS TRYING TO MIX WITH OR ENTIRELY
CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT RAIN SOUTH OF I-96 THIS EVENING. MODEL WET
BULB ZERO HTS SUPPORT THIS CHANGE OVER. WHILE THIS IS
OCCURRING...DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS IS WORKING INTO THE
AREA...AND KLWA HAS STARTED TO REPORT SOME DRIZZLE.

WE EXPECT THAT MORE SITES WILL CHANGE OVER TO SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE
THROUGH 03-04Z...AND THEN PCPN SHOULD END AS THE SYSTEM SHEARS OUT
ENOUGH. SOME SITES ARE JUST A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER DEW
POINTS ARE ALSO NEAR FREEZING. WE EXPECT THAT PCPN SHOULD END
BEFORE TEMPS FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 626 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

GIVEN CURRENT RADAR TRENDS WE SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT
HIGHER POPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUSKEGON AND THE NORTHERN TWO
ROWS OF COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FOR THIS AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

FOR TONIGHT...AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BRING A STRIPE OF
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX TO THE
SOUTH. IMPACTS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL THROUGH EARLY EVENING DUE
TO SFC TEMPS NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING. SKIN TEMPS COULD FALL TO NEAR
FREEZING ALONG AND NORTH OF I-96 THIS EVENING AND SOME ICY SPOTS
ARE POSSIBLE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS.

AS FOR THE BIG EVENT...12Z EURO AND GFS HAVE CLOSED IN ON A SFC
LOW TRACK JUST SOUTH OF GRR. LOOKS LIKE MIX TO RAIN ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN BACK TO
SNOW WITH HIGH WINDS THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE
WILL BE HEAVILY IMPACTED. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE IN EXCESS OF 6
INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA...UP TO A FOOT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IF
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK VERIFIES.

THE LOW OCCLUDES AS IT PASSES BY BUT A SHARP SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
ON THE BACK SIDE ALONG WITH LAKE ENHANCEMENT OF WRAPAROUND SNOW
SUGGEST 40 TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE WHITEOUT CONDITIONS
AFTER MIDNIGHT ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE WATCH AREA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

THE MAIN FOCUS DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE WITH THE
STORM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

EARLY FRIDAY THE STORM WILL BE OVER SRN LAKE HURON. COLD AIR WILL BE
POURING INTO THE CWA AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE ONGOING. THERE WILL BE
SOME SYNOPTIC SNOW WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE ALONG WITH SOME LAKE
ENHANCEMENT FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS NEAR 45KTS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER
ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED BANDS. HOWEVER THE LAKE WILL ENHANCE
THE UPPER DYNAMICAL SUPPORT ALREADY IN PLACE. THUS WHAT WE/RE LIKELY
LOOKING AT IS WIND BLOWN SNOW. TRAVEL MAY BE RATHER DIFFICULT WITH
NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS ALONG/WEST OF US-131. THE FARTHER NORTH YOU
GO THE WORSE THE CONDITIONS WILL BE. ACCUMS IN THE 1 TO 4 INCH
RANGE...HIGHEST NORTH...LOOK REASONABLE AT THIS POINT.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AT THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
BUT IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY. A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL
MOVE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT BRING A CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED AND SO POPS ARE LOW.

WE MAY SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES. BOTH
THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW THE TROUGH. THE GFS IS QUICKER. AT THIS POINT
IT/S NOT A VERY STRONG FEATURE BUT WE/LL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE FREEZING DRIZZLE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING.
LOOKS LIKE FOR TAF SITES TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE PRECIPITATION...BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE.

INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR IFR TONIGHT. THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
PRODUCING THE SNOW/RAIN MIX WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE
REGION BY MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE LEFT
BEHIND...GENERALLY AFTER 03Z. LOW LEVEL HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AND THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
FOG/STRATUS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALREADY LOTS OF IFR IN
WISCONSIN WHICH IS HOW OUR TAF SITES SHOULD TREND OVERNIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR ROUGHLY AROUND 18Z WED. SOLID MID
LEVEL VFR DECK SHOULD BE IN BY THEN.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

WILL PROBABLY NEED A GALE OR EVEN STORM WARNING BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF HEADLINES FOR NOW AND LET NEXT SHIFT DECIDE ON
WHETHER A STORM WARNING WILL BE NEEDED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 335 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

SOME RISES ON KALAMAZOO...SAINT JOE AND GRAND BASINS ARE POSSIBLE
BY THE WEEKEND AS UP TO AN INCH OF MORE OF RAIN FALLS THURSDAY.
SOME FREEZE UP POSSIBLE AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MIZ037>040-043>046-050.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...NJJ
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...93
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
928 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-191100-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
928 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WINTER STORM IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WITH RAIN FORECAST OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING CHANGING THE
PRECIPITATION OVER TO ALL SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. ACCUMULATING SNOW
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FROM THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS NORTH OF A
MUSKEGON TO MT. PLEASANT LINE. VERY STRONG WINDS WILL SWEEP THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH
POSSIBLE. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
AREA WIDE SO STAY UP TO DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ844>849-191100-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
928 PM EST TUE DEC 18 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL POSSIBLY
REACH GALE FORCE ON THURSDAY...RAMPING UP TO STORM FORCE TO 50
KNOTS POTENTIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR VESSELS
OF ANY SIZE ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

DUKE NJJ