Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
343 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND 100 DEGREES AND HEAT INDEX READINGS
BETWEEN 105 AND 110. RELIEF WILL FINALLY COME OVER THE WEEKEND
WHEN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES...IN
THE 80S.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS HEAT OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS WILL COME LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAT ADVISORY AND WARNINGS AS IS. UPPER RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE REGION AND TEMPS WILL BE AS WARM
OR EVEN WARMER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE
HOTTEST DAY WITH MANY AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-96 REACHING OR
EXCEEDING ACTUAL TEMPS OF 100 DEGREES.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT...THEN
LINGERS OVER THE AREA UNTIL A SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG IT ON
SATURDAY.

A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN WE SHOULD BE
CAPPED MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER THESE STORMS SHOULD LEAVE AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER...SO WILL CARRY POPS
THERE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. OTHERWISE EXPECT A
DRY AND HOT DAY ACROSS THE CWA.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH THE FRONT TONIGHT OR EVEN INTO MUCH OF
FRIDAY AS WE REMAIN CAPPED. WE MAY BE ABLE TO BREAK THE CAP AS THE
FRONT WIGGLES NORTH LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE MAIN CHANCE OF
PCPN WILL COME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH THE FLATTENING
OF THE RIDGE AND THE APPROACH OF THE WEAK SURFACE LOW. WILL CARRY
LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER WHERE COOLER AIR ALOFT WILL SPELL
AN END TO THE CAP. STORMS MAY STRUGGLE FURTHER SOUTH AS THE CAP
ONLY SLOWLY ERODES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY...WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE. SLIGHTLY SLOWER
TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS BEING HINTED AT IN THE MODELS FOR
SATURDAY. IF THE FRONT DOES HANG UP TO THE NORTH A BIT
LONGER...TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MIGHT PUSH UP INTO THE MID 90S IN
THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS UP
SLIGHTLY FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. OTHERWISE
COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MORE SEASONAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THE AVIATION FORECAST DEALS WITH THE RISK
FOR STORMS OVERNIGHT. WE ARE CURRENTLY MONITORING THE STORMS
CROSSING LAKE MI JUST WEST OF KMBL. THEY WERE TRACKING SOUTHEAST.
WHILE THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN FOR WEAKENING...THERE IS STILL
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND TO KEEP THE STORMS GOING. FOR NOW I
ADDED VCTS FOR KMKG AND WE MAY NEED TO EXPAND THAT SOON.

THERE IS A RISK FOR MVFR FOG/HAZE OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HAS INCREASED. HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS MOVING IN WE MAY LIMIT THE RISK
FOR REDUCED VISIBILITIES. WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
NOW...AND MONITOR TRENDS CLOSELY.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 343 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOME PARTS OF CENTRAL LOWER COULD RECEIVE HEAVY RAINS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR MIZ050>052-
     056>059-064>067-071>074.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037>040-043>046.

LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MACZKO
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
246 AM EDT THU JUL 5 2012

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-
051945-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-MASON-LAKE-
OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-
GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-
VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
246 AM EDT WED JUL 4 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
THROUGH DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN LANSING AND
MOUNT PLEASANT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY.

HEAT INDICES WILL BE ABOVE 100 DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
253 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 AM     TSTM WND GST     GREENVILLE              43.18N 85.26W
07/05/2012  E45 MPH          MONTCALM           MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 INCH DIAMETER TREE LIMB DOWN

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
324 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 E ALMA                43.38N 84.62W
07/05/2012  M59 MPH          GRATIOT            MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

OSTUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
328 AM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0310 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ALMA                    43.38N 84.66W
07/05/2012                   GRATIOT            MI   911 CALL CENTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN AROUND ALMA

&&

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