Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
823 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE THIS EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DIMINISH FRIDAY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE TRENDS TONIGHT.

SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE CWA. MOST OF THE SVR
STORMS WILL BE OVER THE NRN CWA WHERE SHEAR VALUES AROUND 55KTS
WERE NOTED. SHEAR VALUES DECREASE AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND
THE HIGHER SHEAR IS NEVER REALLY PROGD OVER THE SRN CWA. THAT
SAID...SRN LOWER WAS ABLE TO DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
AFTERNOON (LI/S NEAR -9C) AND THAT MAY LEAD TO A SVR STORMS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

SIGNIFICANT TRAINING IS OCCURRING OVER THE NW CWA AND FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT. AS SUCH NO CHANGES TO THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WERE MADE.

MUCH OF THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WAS KICKED OFF BY A SHORT
WAVE MOVING NEWD ACROSS WISCONSIN. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN LWR THIS EVENING AFTER WHICH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH. GFS SHOWS ANOTHER POTENT SHORT WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SRN LWR AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP
THE CONVECTION GOING AND PERHAPS SLOW THE SWD PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT BOUNDARY WILL FIND SRN LWR FRIDAY MORNING
AND CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
DURING THE DAY. AT THIS POINT FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BUT IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT THE FAR SRN CWA MAY SEE A FEW STORMS/SHOWERS EARLY
IN THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY...HOWEVER IT
APPEARS TO BE A DIRTY HIGH WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERING.  IT SHOULD BE A RATHER CLOUDY DAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.  PARTIAL CLEARING SHOULD FINALLY OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE MAINTAINING A MERGE OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN
STREAMS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS RESULTS IN THE FORMATION OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR STL BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE LOW HEADS FOR TOL BY
MONDAY NIGHT...SO PCPN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

THE ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  AN UPPER LOW NEAR JAMES BAY WILL
PIVOT A SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.

TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY.  THEN
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 746 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE KMKG WHERE THERE WILL BE A LULL BEFORE MORE PCPN DEVELOPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT/S NOT CERTAIN THAT MORE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...BUT SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT MORE STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE I-96/I-94 CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. INCLUDED A
MENTION OF VCTS IN THE TAFS. FOG IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OVERNIGHT.
HUMID AIRMASS AND RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOWER VSBYS AFTER 3 AM.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

WILL CANCEL THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE ENDED THERE. AREAS
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA MAY STILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN IL AND MOVE
TOWARD SOUTHERN LOWER.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ058-059-064>067-
     071>074.

LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...93
SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...93
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...93

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1010 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-041415-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1010 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. THE MAIN EXPECTED THREATS ARE HEAVY RAIN AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. THIS COULD ESPECIALLY IMPACT AREA
CREEKS AND STREAMS WITH RAPID RISES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL THREATS FOR MINOR
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ALL INSTANCES OF HEAVY
RAIN...FLOODING...HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

LMZ844>849-041415-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1010 AM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WILL BRING HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO LAKE MICHIGAN. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT AFTER STORMS CLEAR OUT...WITH VISIBILITIES UNDER ONE
MILE AT TIMES LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND
AGAIN ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ALL INSTANCES OF HEAVY
RAIN...FLOODING...HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
908 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

MIZ051-040215-
MONTCALM-
908 PM EDT THU MAY 3 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 904 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GREENVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SIDNEY...             FENWICK...            SHERIDAN...
  STANTON...            VICKERYVILLE...       FERRIS TWP...
  BUTTERNUT...          CRYSTAL...            CARSON CITY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS
STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4312 8484 4312 8502 4312 8531 4329 8531
      4336 8484 4329 8484 4329 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 263DEG 28KT 4320 8524

MEADE