Small Craft Advisory 46, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

029 
WHUS73 KGRR 121446
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1046 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

LMZ844>849-122300-
/O.CON.KGRR.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-120612T2300Z/
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1046 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 KNOTS TODAY...BECOMING NORTH 10 TO 
  15 KNOTS THIS EVENING. 

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET TODAY...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3 FEET THIS 
  EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

834 
WHUS73 KGRR 122010
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
410 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

LMZ844>849-122300-
/O.CON.KGRR.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-120612T2300Z/
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
410 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WINDS...NORTHWEST TO NORTH 15 TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY
  EVENING...BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST 5 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT.

* WAVES...3 TO 5 FEET THROUGH EARLY EVENING...SUBSIDING TO 1 TO 3
  FEET TONIGHT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIND SPEEDS OF 21 TO 33 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS WAVE CONDITIONS TO SMALL CRAFT.
INEXPERIENCED MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE OPERATING SMALLER
VESSELS SHOULD AVOID NAVIGATING IN THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

$$

418 
WHUS73 KGRR 122304
MWWGRR

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
704 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

LMZ844>849-130015-
/O.EXP.KGRR.SC.Y.0046.000000T0000Z-120612T2300Z/
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
704 PM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

WINDS AND WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

$$

OSTUNO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
341 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

LESS HUMID AND MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE REGION FOR MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE US MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN INTO THE 80S BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

THE COLD FRONT WAS CONTINUING TO MAKE ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL CONVECTION WAS ALREADY EAST AND SKIES WERE
RAPIDLY CLEARING. WNW WINDS WILL STAY ON THE BRISK SIDE TODAY AS
THE COLD ADVECTION SPREADS IN. TEMPS WILL ONLY MAX OUT IN THE 70
TO 75 DEGREE RANGE...ALTHOUGH THE LAKESHORE MAY NOT EVEN SEE 70.

WINDS WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FLOATS IN. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BECOME CHILLY WITH A FEW NORMALLY
COLDER NORTHERN SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE 30S...HOWEVER THE BULK OF
THE CWA SHOULD SEE LOW TO MID 40S.  THE HIGH WILL STICK AROUND FOR
WED TOO...PRODUCING PLEASANT TEMPS AND SUNSHINE.

A BIT MORE MID/HI LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD ARRIVE FOR WED NIGHT AND THU
AS WE GET ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH AND WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS
RETURN. WILL STILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THU WITH TEMPS REBOUNDING
FROM 75 TO 80.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

RIDGING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ARE IN PLACE FROM THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS TO BE A WARM AND
DRY PERIOD WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S TO NEAR 90. 500MB HEIGHTS
ARE IN THE 585-590DM RANGE WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE +15 TO +19 C
RANGE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY THE PATTERN EVOLUTION BECOMES A BIT
MURKY. THE MODELS TRAVERSE WEAK SHORTWAVES THROUGH THE AREA AT THE
SAME TIME A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE RIDGING LOSES SOME STRENGTH AND 500MB HEIGHTS DECLINE A
BIT.

HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE FORECAST SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY (20 PCT). CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS TIME FRAME GIVEN MODEL
CONTINUITY ISSUES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE PAINTING SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THE AREA THOUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. HAVE KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
CLOUDS COULD TEMPER THESE VALUES A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE TAF SITES BY 09Z PUSHING ANY
REMAINING STORMS EAST OF KJXN. WINDS WILL SHIFT AND BECOME GUSTY
BY 12Z TUE. WE MAY SEE GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS WILL COULD BE AN IMPACT
TO AVIATORS. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR LEVELS.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

WILL ISSUE A SCA STARTING AT 9 AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
TYPICAL PATTERN WHERE COLD ADVECTION AND WNW WINDS PRODUCE A
CHOPPY LAKE...SOMETIMES WORSE THAN ANTICIPATED. NOW THAT THE WATER
HAS WARMED INTO THE LOW 60S BETTER MIXING SHOULD BE REALIZED
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...CREATING UP HIGHER WAVES. HAZARDOUS
CURRENTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR ANYONE TEMPING TO SWIM TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012

DRY REGIME THROUGH THE SHORT TERM SO NO HYDRO ISSUES EXPECTED.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MIZ037-043-050-056-064-071.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
546 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-121000-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
546 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.
THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS WILL COME BETWEEN 400 PM AND
100 AM. MOST STORMS SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...BUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING. CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ALL STORMS. THE STRONGEST OF STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL TO
AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LMZ844>849-121000-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
546 AM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
LAKE MICHIGAN. THE 500 PM TO 1000 PM TIME FRAME APPEARS TO BE THE
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD FOR STORMS OVER THE LAKE. CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM THAT
DEVELOPS. THE STRONGEST OF STORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL TO AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WAVES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BUILD INTO THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE
ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DUKE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1127 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

MIZ046-120430-
ISABELLA-
1127 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 1122 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF MOUNT PLEASANT...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH...
OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  DEERFIELD CENTER BY 1135 PM EDT...
  MOUNT PLEASANT BY 1150 PM EDT...
  ROSEBUSH BY 1155 PM EDT...
  WISE BY 1215 AM EDT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL OBJECTS SUCH AS TRASH BINS TO BLOW
AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4346 8461 4349 8508 4352 8509 4366 8508
      4380 8470 4382 8464 4381 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 253DEG 21KT 4359 8497

MJS