Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2012

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

March 16, 2012Allegan County, Michigan

NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 16, 2012, 7:08 PM EDT for Allegan County, Michigan. It was in force for 52 min. 4 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Mar 16, 2012, 7:08 PM EDT (23:08 UTC)
Expired: Mar 16, 2012, 8:00 PM EDT
In force: 52 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 50.0 mph

County Allegan County, MI

The radar

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 33 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Mar 16, 7:15 PM EDT	HAIL 1	4 S Wayland, MI
Mar 16, 7:19 PM EDT	HAIL 1.25	3 W Bradley, MI	HAIL IS COVERING THE GROUND. BIGGEST HAILSTONES ARE JUST OVER QUARTER SIZED.
Mar 16, 7:25 PM EDT	HAIL 0.5	2 N Wayland, MI	REPORT WAS FROM U.S.-131 JUST NORTH OF WAYLAND.
Mar 16, 7:38 PM EDT	HAIL 1	3 Ssw Wayland, MI	NEAR EXIT 61 ON U.S. 131

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched 3 storm reports to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 7 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 11.1 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 27 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -248 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 883 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 23 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 69 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 94 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

034 
WUUS53 KGRR 162308
SVRGRR
MIC005-170000-
/O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0007.120316T2308Z-120317T0000Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
708 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN ALLEGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 706 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. 
  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES SOUTH OF WAYLAND..AND MOVING NORTH
  AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WAYLAND...            MOLINE...             BRADLEY...
  SHELBYVILLE...        MARTIN...             HOPKINS...
  DORR...               GREEN LAKE...         CORNING...
  HOPKINSBURG...        WATSON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 60 MILES
PER HOUR...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF
YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT
DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 4254 8581 4277 8577 4277 8555 4257 8554
      4251 8557
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 194DEG 8KT 4260 8567
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

HOVING

2 follow-up statements

878 
WWUS53 KGRR 162321
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
721 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

MIC005-170000-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120317T0000Z/
ALLEGAN MI-
721 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
ALLEGAN COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 715 PM EDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS WERE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WAYLAND...MOVING 
NORTH AT 10 MPH. HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED 3 MILES 
WEST OF BRADLEY WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL 
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WAYLAND...            MOLINE...             BRADLEY...
  SHELBYVILLE...        MARTIN...             HOPKINS...
  DORR...               GREEN LAKE...         CORNING...
  HOPKINSBURG...        WATSON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4254 8581 4277 8577 4277 8555 4257 8554
      4251 8557
TIME...MOT...LOC 2319Z 194DEG 8KT 4262 8566
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

HOVING

948 
WWUS53 KGRR 162337
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

MIC005-170000-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120317T0000Z/
ALLEGAN MI-
737 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN
ALLEGAN COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM EDT...

AT 733 PM EDT...TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR WAYLAND...MOVING 
NORTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR 
SIZE HAIL AND IS CONTINUING TO PRODUCE QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT MILE 
MARKER 60 ON U.S. 131. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WAYLAND...            MOLINE...             BRADLEY...
  SHELBYVILLE...        MARTIN...             HOPKINS...
  DORR...               GREEN LAKE...         CORNING...
  HOPKINSBURG...        WATSON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW
INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4254 8581 4277 8577 4277 8555 4257 8554
      4251 8557
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 194DEG 8KT 4265 8565
WIND...HAIL <50MPH 1.00IN

$$

HOVING

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 16, 3:25 PM EDT, 3 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 16, 3:25 PM EDT, 3 hours 43 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
325 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
GENERALLY FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH...AND AGAIN BY THE NED OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS EVENING AND LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT IS THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE NEAR TERM. WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WINDS ARE STRONGER
THAN LAST NIGHT SO FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD.

FOR TONIGHT... WILL MONITOR A CU FIELD THAT HAS FORMED SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 96 WHERE SFC INSTABILITY IS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP BUT SHEAR AND SFC CONVERGENCE IS
WEAK. WILL HAVE ISOLATED POPS TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
UPDRAFTS TO FORM.

LATER TONIGHT THE ISSUE BECOMES FOG ONCE AGAIN AS MOIST LOW LEVELS
WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MITIGATED BY LOW
LEVEL WINDS STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE SAME
AREAL EXTENT OF DENSE FOG FORMATION. WILL HAVE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN
THE FORECAST TO COVER.

SATURDAY SHOULD START OUT QUIET BUT WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SLUG
OF RETURN FLOW MOISTURE ARRIVING LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
SHOULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S. THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE FOR
SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE OVER THE CWA SUNDAY
RESULTING IN A SLGHT CHC TSRA. THEN WE/LL SEE A FEW DRY DAYS. A DEEP
UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE COUNTRY SLOWLY CUTTING
OFF OVER THE SRN PLAINS. AS IT APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES...CHANCES
FOR TSRA WILL INCREASE BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BE A SLOW MOVER AND IT/S AFFECTS
WILL BE FELT FOR SEVERAL DAYS IN THE FORM OF TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
FOG IS LIFTING AND SHOULD BE GONE WITH VFR CONDITIONS INTO THIS
EVENING. COULD BE AN ISOLATED TSRA NEAR AZO AND BTL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

EXPECT MVFR AND PATCHY IFR FOG TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL BE UP A BIT SO
IFR AND LIFR FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
AREAS OF FOG WILL BE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WARM
AND MOIST AIR IS OVER THE COLDER WATER. WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW 25 KNOTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012
ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS
WHICH SHOULD NOT AFFECT RIVER LEVELS MUCH.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.

LM...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...OSTUNO
MARINE...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...OSTUNO

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 16, 2:50 PM EDT, 4 hours 18 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
250 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-171015-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
250 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

PATCHY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT....ESPECIALLY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ROUNDS OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LMZ844>849-171015-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
250 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF FOG WILL BE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A PERSISTENT WARM AND MOIST FLOW OF AIR OVER THE LAKE WILL
CONTINUE THE THREAT OF DENSE FOG THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

DUKE OSTUNO

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Mar 16, 6:28 PM EDT, 40 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
628 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

MIZ064-071-162330-
ALLEGAN-VAN BUREN-
628 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 623 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES SOUTH OF ALLEGAN...MOVING NORTH AT 10
MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BLOOMINGDALE...       GRAND JUNCTION...     GRAND JUNCTION...
  PULLMAN...            ALLEGAN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4266 8612 4267 8576 4228 8581 4227 8605
TIME...MOT...LOC 2228Z 179DEG 10KT 4237 8593

JK

Special weather statement, Mar 16, 7:04 PM EDT, 4 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
704 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

MIZ064-065-170000-
ALLEGAN-BARRY-
704 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 702 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EAST CENTRAL ALLEGAN COUNTY...MOVING NORTH
AT 15 MPH.

PENNY SIZE HAIL...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  BRADLEY...            WAYLAND...            DORR...
  MOLINE...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS TREES. SEEK SHELTER IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4252 8582 4276 8580 4277 8580 4277 8544
      4249 8558
TIME...MOT...LOC 2304Z 188DEG 13KT 4261 8568

HOVING

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 15, 8:20 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Isabella	25 min
Mar 15, 8:30 PM EDT	Dense Fog Advisory	GRR	Allegan, Barry, Calhoun, Clare, Clinton, Eaton and 17 more	16 hr
Mar 16, 6:28 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Allegan	62 min
Mar 16, 7:04 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Barry	56 min
Mar 16, 7:47 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	GRR	Kent	43 min
Mar 16, 7:54 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Kent	33 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2012 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.