Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

119 
WWUS53 KGRR 141937
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
337 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

MIC015-045-067-141947-
/O.CAN.KGRR.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-121014T2000Z/
BARRY MI-EATON MI-IONIA MI-
337 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN IONIA...
NORTHWESTERN EATON AND NORTHEASTERN BARRY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

LAT...LON 4251 8515 4263 8533 4303 8485 4277 8483
      4277 8478
TIME...MOT...LOC 1937Z 224DEG 46KT 4285 8487

$$

NJJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
152 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

MORE WET WEATHER WILL BE SEEN THROUGHOUT TODAY AND TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CROSSES THE REGION. SOME AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN
AGAIN...POSSIBLY BRINGING STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SINCE SATURDAY TO
THREE INCHES. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AS LOW
PRESSURE SWEEPS THROUGH. THE RAIN WILL LIGHTEN UP SIGNIFICANTLY BY
EARLY MONDAY...BUT IT MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON IN SOME AREAS.

SOMEWHAT QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME DURING THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

MAIN ISSUES WHERE MORE HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED ON TOP OF
YESTERDAY/S SOAKING. THEN THERE IS ALSO THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

WILL NOT BE ISSUING ANY FLOOD HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANSIT WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY...ARRIVING
IN THE SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN
CWA BY MID DAY. AN ADDITIONAL 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER...BUT FEEL WE CAN HANDLE
THIS GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS PRIOR TO THIS SYSTEM SETTING IN.
ALSO THE RAIN WILL HAVE OCCURRED OVER A 36 HOUR PERIOD RATHER THAN
COMING ALL AT ONCE.

THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH
A FEW THINGS HAVE TO ALIGN. THE KEY WILL BE THE DRY SLOT THAT CAN BE
SEEN MOVING INTO MO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE DRY SLOT WILL RACE
INTO IL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY EVEN POKE INTO FAR SW LOWER.
THE DRY SLOT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE TOWARD MID DAY AND
WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE A LINE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS. BULK SHEAR VALUES LOOK FAVORABLE IN THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. HOWEVER...THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE LITTLE JET DYNAMIC FORCING
IN THE REGION OF THE DRY SLOT...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE IF
STORMS WILL DEVELOP. THIS REGION WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. IF
STORMS DO DEVELOP...THERE WILL BE AN ISOLATED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
FROM ROUGHLY 1 PM THROUGH 7 PM SOUTH OF A LWA-AMN LINE. STRONG
WINDS LOOK TO BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH 50-60 KTS OF WIND AT
3-4K FT THAT COULD BE BROUGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITH A STRONGER
STORM. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL COULD ALSO BE SEEN.

THE UPPER SYSTEM GOES NEGATIVE TILT LATER TODAY WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A SLOWER EXIT. THEREFORE HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR EARLY
MONDAY AS LINGERING LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE LOOKS LIKELY. A DRYING
TREND SHOULD FINALLY OCCUR THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ALSO ADDED POPS ON TUESDAY NORTH OF I-96. WE WILL QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE
SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

NO BIG CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED AS MODEL CONTINUITY IS GOOD. SOME
DIFFERENCES REMAIN BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO. NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT BUT DAMPS OUT QUICKLY WITH ONLY A
SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE WAVE BEHIND IT IS MORE ENERGETIC AS IT DIVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC  RIDGE AND EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST OR GREAT LAKES...DEPENDING ON THE EURO OR GFS
SOLUTIONS RESPECTIVELY.

RAIN WILL BE IN THE FORECAST MOST OF THE TIME FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SPINS IN PLACE. ECMWF AND GFS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE IN HANDLING THE UPPER LOW BY THURSDAY...BUT THIS DOES NOT
HAVE APPRECIABLE IMPACT ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR LOWER MICHIGAN
UNTIL AFTER THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

PLENTY OF CONCERNS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL BE A CONCERN INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...WIND GUSTS WILL BE A CONCERN...AND THEN IFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY MID EVENING INTO MON.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
AND DOWN INTO NE ILLINOIS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TOUGH
TO SAY IF EACH TERMINAL WILL SEE ACTUAL STORMS VS. VCTS AT THIS
TIME. WE HAVE DECIDED TO ROLL WITH SHOWERS AND VCTS FOR NOW...AND
WE WILL UPDATE THE FCSTS TO TEMPO THUNDER ON A CASE BY CASE BASIS.

THE THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS UNTIL
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND ENDS THE THREAT. AT THAT TIME...WE
WILL SEE WINDS PICK UP A BIT...AND LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS LIKELY
MOVE IN ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. RAIN WILL BE
INTERMITTENT...BUT THE CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
CONSTANT. THIS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MON MORNING WHEN CONDITIONS
WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

WILL HOIST A GALE WARNING FOR THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
DEEPENING STORM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COLD ADVECTION RUSHING IN BEHIND IT FOR THIS EVENING. IT LOOKS
LIKE A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SCENARIO AS THE BAGGY GRADIENT WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS EARLY THIS
EVENING. MARINERS SHOULD NOT BE FOOLED BY THIS AS WINDS SHOULD
QUICKLY RAMP UP TO GALES PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. GALES TO 40 KNOTS LOOK
LIKELY AND COULD EVEN APPROACH STORM FORCE WINDS FURTHER OUT ON
THE LAKE.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SIMMER INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 407 AM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM ROUGHLY MKG TO MOP LATE TODAY. NORTH
OF THIS TRACK WIDESPREAD HEAVIER RAINS ARE EXPECTED. 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN LOOK LIKELY THROUGH MIDNIGHT. GIVEN THE DRY WEATHER
THROUGH MUCH OF THE SUMMER...THE REGION SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE
THIS RAINFALL WITH PERHAPS ONLY NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING DUE TO
CLOGGED DRAINS FROM THE FALLEN LEAVES. MOST AREAS SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK SHOULD SEE UNDER AN INCH OF ADDITIONAL RAIN.
HOWEVER LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAIN COULD OCCUR WITH THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ844>849.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ844>849.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JK
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...JK
MARINE...JK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1212 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-151030-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
1212 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT IS MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MUSKEGON TO ALMA AND FROM 4 PM TO 10 PM. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO
THE EAST NORTHEAST AT 40 TO 60 MPH.

VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE FOR A TIME TONIGHT WITH
WEST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW DOWNED
TREE LIMBS AND SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

DESPITE TOTAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES SO FAR AND UP TO AN
ADDITIONAL INCH POSSIBLE... NO FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED OR IS
EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM SOUTH OF A
MUSKEGON TO ALMA LINE.

LMZ844>849-151030-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI-
1212 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT TODAY AND
NORTHWEST GALES TO 40 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

WINDS AND WAVES WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFT MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.

MEADE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
222 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-142030-
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-
INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...BALDWIN...REED CITY...CLARE...
HART...FREMONT...BIG RAPIDS...MOUNT PLEASANT...MUSKEGON...
GREENVILLE...ALMA...JENISON...GRAND RAPIDS...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...
HOLLAND...HASTINGS...CHARLOTTE...LANSING...SOUTH HAVEN...KALAMAZOO...
BATTLE CREEK...JACKSON
222 PM EDT SUN OCT 14 2012

...STORMS WITH POSSIBLE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...

AT 220 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST VERY FAST...AT
AROUND 55 MPH.

NJJ