Winter Weather Advisory 2, NWS Green Bay, WI

Brown County, WI, Calumet County, WI, Door County, WI, Florence County, WI, Forest County, WI, Kewaunee County, WI, Langlade County, WI, Lincoln County, WI, Manitowoc County, WI, Marathon County, WI, Marinette County, WI, Menominee County, WI, Oconto County, WI, Oneida County, WI, Outagamie County, WI, Portage County, WI, Shawano County, WI, Vilas County, WI, Waupaca County, WI, Waushara County, WI, Winnebago County, WI, Wood County, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
213 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012

.SYNOPSIS...A TURN TO MORE WINTRY WEATHER.

LARGE SCALE FLOW ACRS THE NRN HEMISPHERE IN TRANSITION. BRIEF
AMPLIFICATION OF ERN CONUS TROF WL OCCUR EARLY AS DEEP CYCLONE
FORMS IN THE GREAT LAKES RGN...BUT THE REAL CHG WL BE THE
DEVELOPEMNT OF MASSIVE AND DOMINANT FULL-LATITUDE RIDGE THAT WL
BUILD NWD THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND EVENTUALLY ACRS THE NORTH
POLE. THAT WL RESULT IN DEEP DOWNSTREAM TROF DEVELOPING OVER WRN
NOAM...AND THE FORMATION OF FAST ZONAL FLOW FARTHER DOWNSTREAM
ACRS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS. THE ZONAL REGIME WL BE DIFFERENT
THAN THE ONE WE/VE HAD FOR THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS IN THAT INTENSE
BLOCKING OVER THE ERN PAC WL FEED BITTERLY COLD AIR SEWD ACRS MUCH
OF CANADA...SETTING UP STG BAROCLINIC ZONE ACRS THE NRN CONUS.
DISTURBANCES RIDING EWD IN THE FLOW PROBABLY WON/T BE VERY STG AND
WL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BUT COULD BE EFFICIENT SNOW PRODUCERS.

AFTER THE RECORD WARMTH OF THE PAST FEW DAYS...TEMPS WL QUICKLY
FALL BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. COULD SEE SOME BLO NORMAL
TEMPS AT TIMES...THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THE
CORE OF THE COLD EVER GETS DRIVEN RIGHT DOWN ACRS THE AREA.
INITIAL SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM WL AFFECT THE RGN EARLY...THEN WL
LIKELY HAVE SEVERAL MORE CHCS OF LGT SNOW AS SYSTEMS RIDE EWD
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. OVERALL...PCPN AMNTS WL PROBABLY END UP
AOA NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TNGT/THU/THU NGT. COMPLEX SYSTEM TO EVOLVE ACRS THE
AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HRS. SYSTEM WL GENERATE MODEST LIFT OVER A
PROLONGED PERIOD. SITN JUST DOESN/T QUITE SEEM TO RISE TO THE
LEVEL OF JUSTIFYING A WARNING...SO WL BE REPLACING THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WITH A WINTER WX ADVISORY. WL MOVE THE START TIME UP
QUITE A BIT IN THE W...BUT DELAY IT A LITTLE IN THE FAR E. RIGHT
NOW...IT APPEARS MORE SIG SNOW MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL JUST AFTER THE
MORNING COMMUTE IN FAR E-C WI.

HAVE EDGED DOWN A BIT ON SNOW TOTALS FM PREV FCST. 4-7 INCH TOTALS
MOST AREAS SEEMS IN LINE WITH THE AVAILABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE. A
LITTLE CONCERNED THAT AT SOME POINT A SMALLER SCALE BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW COULD RESULT IN A LITTLE HIGHER TOTALS SOMEWHERE...
BUT PINPOINTING WHEN AND WHERE TOO DIFFICULT. AND HIGHER AMNTS
PROBABLY WON/T BE THAT WIDESPREAD.

LAKE-EFFECT POTENTIAL FOR N-C WI WL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY FLOW
BECOMING TOO NNELY FOR A TIME. THEN BY THE TIME IT TURNS BACK
NNW...DRIER AIR IS ARRIVING AND INVERSION LOWERING. ON THE OTHER
HAND...FLOW LOOKS A LITTLE TOO NWLY TO GET SIG LAKE-EFFECT INTO E-
C WI...AND LK SFC/AIR TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE MARGINAL AS
WELL. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A BETTER DEVELOPED LAKE BAND
FORM OVER LAKE MICHIGAN LATE IN THE EVENT WHEN TEMPS START TO
COOL...BUT AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN OFF SHORE.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES THAT WE MAY BE IN A TRANSITION
PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...UNTIL A MORE TRADITIONAL LA NINA
PATTERN IS ESTABLISHED BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  WILL SEE IF THIS
TAKES PLACE...AS THE GFS ENSEMBLE HAS BEEN ADVERTISING THIS SORT OF
TRANSITION FOR SEVERAL WEEKS NOW...ONLY TO BE DELAYED TIME AND TIME
AGAIN.  IN THE MEANTIME...WILL HAVE A COUPLE POSSIBLE WEATHER
SYSTEMS TO DEAL WITH.  FIRST...A WEAK CLIPPER IS PROGGED TO DIVE SE
ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE REGION.  BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS HAVE
REMAINED STEADFAST IN THEIR DIFFERING TRACKS...ONE TO THE NORTH AND
THE OTHER TO THE SOUTH.  FOR NOW...WILL FAVOR A BLEND OF THE TWO
SOLUTIONS.  THEN AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL PLOW THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  MODELS HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FRONT...THOUGH DIFFER WITH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR IN ITS
WAKE.  WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...WHICH SHOWS A
GLANCING BLOW OF ARCTIC AIR SINCE THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY..THE OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE
SHOVING OFF TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY WHILE WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF
CYCLONIC FLOW TO DEAL WITH HOWEVER...WITH COMMA HEAD MOISTURE
LINGERING THROUGH THE COLUMN DURING THE MORNING. SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SEE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES AS A RESULT...WHICH WILL
EXIT FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WIND TRAJECTORIES ARE
ALSO NOT THAT FAVORABLE FOR GOOD LAKE EFFECT ACCUMS
EITHER...ESPECIALLY WHEN DRY AIR ASSERTS ITSELF OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR BY MIDDAY. ACCUMS LESS THAN AN INCH LOOK FINE
EVERYWHERE...HIGHEST OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN...WHICH IS ALREADY
PORTRAYED IN THE FORECAST. GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND FRESH SNOW PACK
WILL MAKE IT A RAW DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TEENS NORTH
TO LOWER 20S SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD EASILY DECOUPLE AND A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SHOULD HELP TEMPS PLUMMET. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LATE
WHICH SHOULD HALT THE DOWNWARD DESCENT OF TEMPS SOMEWHAT. WILL
REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF GUIDANCE. THEN ON SATURDAY...A WEAK
SHEERED CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE DIVING SE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THINK IMPACTS FROM THIS WAVE WILL
BE MOSTLY FELT TO OUR SOUTH...BUT SHOULD SEE A PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY DAY WITH AN AMPLE CIRRUS SHIELD OVERHEAD. HIGHS SEASONABLE
NEAR 20.

REST OF THE FORECAST...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING WORK
OVERHEAD. STILL SEEING PLENTY OF RH IN THE LOW LEVEL PROGS
HOWEVER...SO CONFIDENCE IN GOING MOSTLY CLEAR IS NOT
THERE...ESPECIALLY IF THE NORTHERN SOLUTIONS OF THE NAM/GFS
VERIFIES. HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY...ALLOWING WARM AIR TO SURGE TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
PROBABLY WONT BE REALIZED AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE SNOW
PACK...BUT AT LEAST SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTER A MILD
AND BREEZY SUNDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
WISCONSIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME...THE GULF WILL HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO BE OPEN FOR AROUND 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TIME TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. WILL
INCREASE POPS FOR A MIXED BAG OF LIGHT PRECIP. PRECIP SHOULD
DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT LEAVING HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE HEADING TO WEDNESDAY. &&

.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. BUT LOW CLDS WITH MVFR AND A FEW IFR CIGS
AREN/T TOO FAR BEHIND THE FRONT...SO EXPECT A RAPID DETERIORATION
IN CONDITIONS ACRS THE W LATER TDA/THIS EVENING.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR WIZ005.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
FRIDAY FOR WIZ010-018.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR WIZ011-012-019-030-035-036.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR WIZ013-020-021-031-037-045.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THURSDAY TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY
FOR WIZ022-038>040-048>050-073-074.

&&

SKOWRONSKI/MPC

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