Special Marine Warning 3, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
316 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS
EVENING. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN BY 8 PM. SKIES WILL BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY THIS
EVENING...EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WHERE THERE WILL BE A LINGERING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS EVENING.

IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 60 ACROSS THE NORTH DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND ACROSS THE LAKESHORE REGION SHOULD
MAKE IT TO 70 TO 75 DUE TO MORE SUNSHINE. THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE
WIND. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MAIN FCST CONCERNS
ARE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MINOR PCPN CHANCES.

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...WITH 850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -2 TO -3 IN NORTHERN WI
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A S/W TROF AND JET STREAK MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY OVER NC WI. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE MID
50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL EXPECT THAT SKIES WILL BE CLEAR ENOUGH
AND WINDS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME FROST TO DEVELOP OVER NC/FAR
NE WI LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MODELS SHOW SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO AN UPPER
TROF/UPPER LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
THEN MOVES TOWARD THIS REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THE GFS DROPS THE UPPER LOW SOUTHEAST INTO SE NEB/SW IA BY
THURSDAY...PIVOTS IT BACK TO THE NE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON
FRI/FRI NGT...THEN PULLS IT OUT TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY. THE ECMWF
TAKES THE NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW DUE EAST...PASSES IT THROUGH
WI ON THU NGT/FRI...THEN TAKE IT EAST OF RGN ON FRIDAY NIGHT. HPC
FAVORS THE ECMWF...BUT EITHER WAY...THE BULK OF THE PCPN WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDES SOME PROTECTION ACROSS NORTHERN WI. HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL
POPS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT...AND A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OCCURRING OVER THE WEEKEND...EXPECTED GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS...
WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM FRONT MAY
LIFT NORTH INTO THE REGION...RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS.
&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. IT APPEARS THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED
AT KRHI...KRRL...KEGV...KLNL...AND KTKV. SOME OF THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST WISCONSIN COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 KNOTS...LARGE HAIL AND SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY 8 PM ACROSS THE AREA..EXCEPT OVER THE
NORTHWEST WHERE THERE WILL BE A LINGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20 TO 25 KNOTS BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z
AS COLD ADVECTION AND SUBSIDE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME OF THE STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN. GUSTS COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...BUT UNCERTAINTY
EXIST ON HOW MUCH OF THE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN.

ON TUESDAY...GUSTY WEST/SW WINDS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. GUSTS TO
30 TO 35 KNOTS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THERE IS CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&

.MARINE...GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY
THIS EVENING. LATER TONIGHT...SOME CONCERN THAT THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 1 AM AND 5 AM. THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
GUSTS TO AROUND 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED LATER THIS EVENING OR ON THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

ECKBERG/KIECKBUSCH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
316 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-292030-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-LINCOLN-LANGLADE-
MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-
WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-
MANITOWOC-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN OCONTO-
316 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 308 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
SOME OF THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH CAN
BE EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. FROST
IS POSSIBLE IN NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NORTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE IF THESE STORMS WOULD BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

LMZ521-522-541>543-292030-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK
ISLAND PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-
316 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST LAKE
MICHIGAN AND THE WATERS OF GREEN BAY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH 8 PM.
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL THAT WILL CREATE A SERIOUS HAZARD FOR MARINERS. GUSTY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CREATE A HAZARD TO SMALL CRAFT ON
LATER TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

ECKBERG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
343 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             TIGERTON                44.73N 89.05W
05/28/2012  M1.25 INCH       SHAWANO            WI   PUBLIC

            REPORTED RELAYED BY WSAW TV IN WAUSAU.

&&

ECKBERG