Wind Advisory 10, NWS Goodland, KS

470 
WWUS73 KGLD 252355
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
455 PM MST SAT FEB 25 2012


KSZ004-015-016-029-260100-
/O.EXP.KGLD.WI.Y.0010.000000T0000Z-120226T0000Z/
NORTON-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-GOVE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NORTON...HOXIE...HILL CITY...QUINTER
555 PM CST SAT FEB 25 2012

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE BELOW ADVISORY AREAS THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

$$


JRM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
507 AM MST SAT FEB 25 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST SAT FEB 25 2012

THE MAIN CONCERNS TODAY ARE THE DRY CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS COMBINED WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS WILL WILL DROP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO LESS THAN 20
PERCENT AND CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BE MOST PREVALENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AS THE SUN
SETS...TEMPERATURES DECREASE AND WINDS DIE DOWN.

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY DEPENDING UPON
HOW DEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL MIX OUT.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS
TURNING NORTHWEST AND BECOMING GUSTY AGAIN BEHIND THE FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO THE MAIN UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO STAY FURTHER NORTH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

WITH GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT IS POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST SAT FEB 25 2012

EXPECT THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION TO COME LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT MOVES THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY
NIGHT. WITH A GOOD SOUTHEAST FETCH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO
BRING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION...THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY OF BOTH RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE AIRMASS
DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE AREA AS IT MOVES EAST
OF THE ROCKIES.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DISPLAY REASONABLE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH
REGARD TO THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH ON TUESDAY. 00Z/25 EC
HAS TRENDED ABOUT 6 HOURS SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS BUT MAINTAINS A
TRACK WHICH WOULD KEEP BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT SOCIETAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI-STATE REGION. SYSTEM IS STILL
WELL OFF SHORE AND THERE LIKELY WILL BE REFINEMENTS TO THE TRACK.
GIVEN CURRENT PROGS WHICH ARE WELL SUPPORTED BY ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE...WENT AHEAD AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY A FEW MORE
DEGREES. IF CURRENT SOLUTIONS VERIFY...TEMPS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
YET. DID ALSO GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP WINDS QUITE A BIT FOR THE DAY ON
TUESDAY GIVEN STRONG PRESSURE RISES/TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH
SHOULD EXIST ACROSS THE REGION.

SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE AWAY FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO THE NEXT TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

BOTH THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND THE EC HAVE BEGUN TO TREND STRONGER
AND A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SET TO IMPACT
THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DID GO AHEAD AND BUMP POPS UP
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE A QUICK MOVER SO NOT
EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BASED ON THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. EXPECT
TEMPS ON FRIDAY TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH COOLER AIR MASS
RESIDING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION.

FOLTZ/LOCKHART

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MST SAT FEB 25 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER
15Z THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 23Z THIS EVENING AS
THE NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURE INVERSION SETS UP. WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLDFRONT
AFTER ABOUT 05Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM MST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR COZ253-254.

KS...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING TO 5 PM
     MST /6 PM CST/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR KSZ013>015-027>029-041-
     042.

NE...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
517 AM MST SAT FEB 25 2012

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-261645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
517 AM MST SAT FEB 25 2012 /617 AM CST SAT FEB 25 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE AREA SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM FLAGLER COLORADO TO HOXIE KANSAS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF LESS THAN 20 PERCENT WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF A LINE FROM BENKELMAN
NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS ON TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.