Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED
ALONG KS/CO BORDER WITH AXIS OF MOISTURE ON BACK SIDE OF UPPER LOW
BEGINNING TO MOVE FROM CENTRAL INTO EASTERN COLORADO. RADAR
CURRENTLY INDICATED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER
THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA ALONG KS/CO STATE LINE. THIS IS AHEAD OF
H7 TROUGH AND ALONG NORTHWESTERN AXIS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES.

LATEST HRRR AND RUC BOTH SHOW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
TO DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET AS WE LOOSE THE
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE...AND LIGHT
NATURE OF MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY...PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

DESPITE MINIMAL CAPE VALUES IN THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE AND WEAK
0-6KM SHEAR...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL WITH
-20C HEIGHTS AROUND 15-18KFT ACROSS THE CWA. WITH LOW LCL VALUES
AROUND 1500 KFT AND FAVORABLE AREA BENEATH UPPER LOW WHERE
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS/SURFACE TROUGH OVERLAP...I CANT RULE OUT
FUNNEL/LANDSPOUT FORMATION WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING. CONSIDERING ABSENCE OF DISTINCT SURFACE BOUNDARY...AND
LOCATION OF BEST SURFACE VORTICITY FURTHER NORTH...THIS THREAT
SEEMS TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

THE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA BY 06Z TONIGHT...WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
BY SUNDAY. WITH SIMILAR H85 TEMPS AND NW WIND PERSISTING...TEMPERATURES
ON SUNDAY SHOULD AT LEAST BE SIMILAR TO THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT DRY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA.  A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
FLOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANYING A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK COLD
FRONT.  POINT SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVELS MOISTEN AS THE
SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH...SO AM ONLY EXPECTING A FEW CLOUDS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY.  A COLD FRONT AND UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...SO AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIP
WITH THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE SOME LIFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500
MB JET...BUT MODELS DISAGREE WITH THE JET PLACEMENT BEHIND THE
FRONT. WITH THE MOISTURE GENERALLY NORTH OF THE AREA AND THE
POSITION OF THE JET IN QUESTION...WILL LEAVE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DRY.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD THE
COLD FRONT...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT
KGLD THROUGH THE EVENING WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KT POSSIBLE. WINDS
WILL BE SLOWER TO INCREASE AT KMCK WITH SURFACE TROUGH IN
PROXIMITY OF TERMINAL...THOUGH GUSTS AROUND 25KT ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SUNRISE. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 03Z AT
BOTH TERMINALS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING
DIMINISHES. BASED ON UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS AND 12Z GUIDANCE
CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN SHOWER/ISO THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AT
KGLD...THOUGH COVERAGE IS STILL A QUESTION. FOR NOW I HAVE
INTRODUCED A TEMPO GROUP FOR -SHRA DURING THE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
TOO LITTLE CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE MENTION AT KMCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...DR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
331 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-141200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
331 AM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012 /431 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID MORNING OVER PARTS OF FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH A SLOW PROGRESSION TO THE EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

NEZ079-132145-
DUNDY-
255 PM MDT SAT OCT 13 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 253 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF CHAMPION...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF
IMPERIAL...MOVING SOUTH AT 20 MPH.

A LOT OF SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 4002 10136 4000 10142 4000 10170 4035 10183
      4035 10157
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 339DEG 19KT 4030 10168

BULLER