Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MDT THU AUG 23 2012

.SHORT TERM...(LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MDT THU AUG 23 2012

MOST PRESSING CONCERN FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AS MORNING RAOBS INDICATED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE
FROM H8 TO H5 AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK VORTICITY
MAXIMUM HAVE HELD DOWN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA...ALTHOUGH LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES CINH ERODING EVEN
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

ALTHOUGH SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT REMAINS FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED AND THINK FOR THE MOST PART...WHICH KEEPS OVERALL
CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN WHAT STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS GIVEN
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE DRIVEN BY PROPAGATION OF DEVELOPING
MCS THAN ANY LARGE SCALE/FRONTAL FEATURE.

IN GENERAL...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE ALONG TROUGH AXIS
STRETCHING FROM ROUGHLY TRIBUNE TO MCCOOK BY 22Z WITH
PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH INTO ELEVATED
THETA-E/INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH DEEP WARM
LAYER...SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS...HEAVY
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOPED.
GIVEN STRONG HORIZONTAL SHEAR ACROSS TROUGH...STORM MOTIONS ALONG
SFC TROUGH...AND DECENT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED
TO SEE A PERIOD WHERE A LANDSPOUT OR TWO ARE DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA. FOR THE TIME BEING...THINK 30-60 POPS APPEAR
REASONABLE FOR THE TIME BEING BUT WILL REFINE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE INITIATION BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT THU AUG 23 2012

OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD COME TO AN END IN THE SOUTH
AND EAST BY EARLY MORNING WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. NEXT MID LEVEL VORT MAX APPROACHES WESTERN PARTS OF THE
CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE CWA...THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SHOULD BE TIED TO BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. BEST FORCING LOOKS TO BE OUTSIDE OF THE
CWA...SO I KEPT POPS LIMITED TO 20/30 RANGE FOR NOW. BAROCLINIC
ZONE...ALONG WITH GOOD MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...LINGERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. LARGE SCALE FORCING
SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY...SO I KEPT POPS
LIMITED TO SLIGHT CHANCE...ENDING BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. PATCH
FOG WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY IN THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY MORNING WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS.

H5 RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY AND THEN
SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST...STRENGTHENING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. RESULT WILL BE A RETURN TO PERSISTENT DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HOTTEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE NEXT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WHERE ADVERTISED 29-30C H85 TEMPS COULD SUPPORT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL PAST
MODELS RUNS INDICATING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BRINGING PRECIP CHANCE
BACK TO THE CWA BY NEXT THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS VERY LITTLE
RUN-RUN CONSISTENCY BETWEEN MODELS...AND LATEST TREND HAS BEEN FOR
RIDGE REMAINING IN PLACE SO I KEPT SILENT POPS IN PLACE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM  MDT THU AUG 23 2012

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH AXIS NEAR A
CHEYENNE WELLS TO GOODLAND TO MCCOOK LINE THIS AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY MOVE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT. GIVEN MOIST
CONDITIONS AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT...EXPECT REDUCED FLIGHT
CATEGORIES DOWN TO IFR VALUES SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT A
TERMINAL LOCATION. AS THUNDERSTORMS COME TO AN END
TONIGHT...MOISTURE PROFILES APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY DEEP TO ALLOW
FOG/LOW STRATUS FORMATION SHOULD SKIES CLEAR FOR A PERIOD. MOST
LIKELY TIME PERIOD FOR BOTH SITES WILL BE BTNW 10 AND 15Z.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 AM MDT THU AUG 23 2012

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-241615-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1038 AM MDT THU AUG 23 2012 /1138 AM CDT THU AUG 23 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA MAINLY
AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT) WITH THE BEST CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF
A CHEYENNE WELLS TO TRENTON LINE. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREAT DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT)

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
354 PM MDT THU AUG 23 2012

KSZ002-003-232215-
DECATUR-RAWLINS-
454 PM CDT THU AUG 23 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND DECATUR
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 452 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATWOOD...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS TO 50 MPH...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3991 10085 3972 10061 3959 10088 3971 10104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 225DEG 14KT 3970 10090

LUNDQUIST