Alert archive / Colorado / Special Weather Statements in 2012

Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

July 1, 2012Kit Carson County, Colorado

NWS Goodland, KS issued this special weather statement at Jul 1, 2012, 7:07 PM MDT for Kit Carson County, Colorado. It was in force for 13 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 1, 2012, 7:07 PM MDT (01:07 UTC)
Expired: Jul 1, 2012, 7:20 PM MDT
In force: 13 min
Issued by: NWS Goodland, KS

County Kit Carson County, CO

The radar

The Goodland radar (KGLD), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:06 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 1, 5:22 PM MDT, 1 hour 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 1, 5:22 PM MDT, 1 hour 45 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
522 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

UPDATE SENT TO REFLECT INCREASING POPS AND QPF ALONG A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AROUND 20 MPH. DID THIS THROUGH 03Z
TONIGHT WITH EXPECTATION OF ACTIVITY DECREASING IN COVERAGE
SHORTLY THEREAFTER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC H5 ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE ACROSS THE
CONTINENTAL US...WITH TROUGHS OVER THE PAC NW AND OVER NEW
ENGLAND. WESTERN KS REMAINS UNDER LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT PASSED THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING...WITH WEAK
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST ALONG
NORTHERN END OF UPPER RIDGE.

STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS COLORADO AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY...AIDED
BY LIMITED LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP FURTHER
EAST TOWARDS OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MEAN FLOW CARRYING THIS
ACTIVITY EASTWARD. COVERAGE AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION OF THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS A QUESTION FOR OUR CWA WITH SUBSIDENCE CURRENTLY
IN PLACE. AS THE SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN WYOMING MOVES EAST WEAK
ASCENT SHOULD SPREAD OVER OUR CWA. I BUMPED POPS UP TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE IN THE WEST...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADJUST AS
THIS EVOLVES. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN WITH ACTIVITY COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD
BE SUPPORTIVE FOR AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE WIND/HAIL THREAT
AROUND 00Z.

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH ANOTHER SHOT OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. I HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE
IN THUNDERSTORMS OVER OUR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...SO I KEPT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM MENTION LIMITED THERE. IM LESS CONFIDENT THE
FURTHER EAST IN OUR CWA...SO I KEPT EASTERN LOCATIONS DRY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 TO 103 ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AREAS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. STILL QUESTIONS HOW MANY DAYS THESE HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL OCCUR...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
NOW. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH
WINDS LIKELY BELOW CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 112 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

MORE OF THE SAME IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 90S TO MIDDLE 100S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN
EASTERN COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND
THE RIDGE. AT THIS POINT DO NOT SEE ANY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 515 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

FOR KGLD VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXCEPTION MAY BE IN THE 01Z-02Z
TIMEFRAME WHEN A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD REACH THE
TERMINAL...SHOULD THEY MAKE IT THIS FAR. IF THEY DO VIS COULD DROP
INTO MVFR RANGE BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
10-15 MPH INCREASING AFTER 17Z SUNDAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25KTS.

FOR KMCK VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTH WINDS 10-15KTS THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OVER 20KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DDT
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...DDT

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 1, 10:42 AM MDT, 8 hours 25 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1042 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021430-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1042 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012 /1142 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LIGHTNING CAUSED FIRES WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT.

HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
AROUND 100.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH
HIGHS AROUND 100 EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 1, 5:06 PM MDT, 2 hours 1 minute before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
506 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

COZ091-092-012320-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-KIT CARSON COUNTY-
506 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AND KIT
CARSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 504 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BOYERO...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF AROYA...
MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.  LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SPOT FIRES.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3911 10317 3912 10316 3912 10301 3882 10301
      3882 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 267DEG 14KT 3898 10322

LUNDQUIST

Special weather statement, Jul 1, 5:25 PM MDT, 1 hour 42 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
525 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

COZ092-012345-
CHEYENNE COUNTY-
525 PM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...

AT 522 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR AROYA...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3904 10317 3904 10299 3876 10299 3876 10317
      3882 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 275DEG 8KT 3890 10317

LUNDQUIST

The office that day

Everything else NWS Goodland, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 1, 10:15 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Wallace	30 min
Jul 1, 7:03 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Kiowa	17 min
Jul 1, 7:12 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Kit Carson	8 min
Jul 1, 7:31 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Kit Carson	29 min
Jul 1, 8:22 PM MDT	Special Weather Statement	GLD	Cheyenne	28 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Colorado, 2012 Every special weather statement in 2012

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.