Special Weather Statement, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
142 PM MDT WED MAY 30 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT WED MAY 30 2012

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...COMPLEX FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
KANSAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. CURRENT WV SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INITIAL UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH COLD FRONT
QUICKLY MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHEASTERN COLORADO.
MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DAYTIME HEATING AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW HAS AIDED IN INCREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS.
DEW POINTS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS ARE STILL IN THE MID 50S BUT
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...MAY
SEE THEM INCREASE A TAD IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. SURFACE BASED CAPE
VALUES OF 2500-3000 J/KG AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KTS WILL
AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT AND HELP TO SUSTAIN SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A CONVERGENT
BOUNDARY FROM ABOUT WAKEENEY KANSAS TO BENKELMAN NEBRASKA AND MOVE
TO THE SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD.

THURSDAY...A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOME
STRATUS POSSIBLE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.

THURSDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER LEVEL JET AND BEST DIFFERENTIAL CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY. SURFACE
HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE NIGHT WHICH WILL
PRODUCE SOUTH RETURN FLOW/INCREASING DEW POINTS OVER WESTERN KANSAS.
COOL AIR WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT EXPECT DEW POINTS TO INCREASE DURING
THE NIGHT...SO INCREASED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM MDT WED MAY 30 2012

THOUGH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE LACKING FRIDAY...A SURFACE FRONT
WILL BECOME STATIONARY. EXACT LOCATION OF FEATURE IS UNCERTAIN...BUT AS
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH INTO THE 80S...MIXED LAYER CAPES WILL
APPROACH 1000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS...CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

500 MB RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...GFS DEVELOPS AN EMBEDDED WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO/WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP...BUT THE MODEL SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE AND FITS EARLY JUNE CLIMATOLOGY. WILL KEEP LOW POPS OVER
COLORADO FRIDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE...AND SPREAD THE
POPS EAST DURING THE NIGHT.

LARGE DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF IN HOW THE NEXT
PACIFIC LOW IS HANDLED BEGINNING MONDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER WHILE THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MUCH DEEPER. DO NOT LIKE THE WAY EITHER OF THEM
IS HANDLING THE SITUATION. THINK THE 500 MB RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS
AGAIN DIFFER IN THE INTENSITY OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
PLAINS TUESDAY...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT
CONTINUING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BASICALLY FOLLOW
CLIMATOLOGY FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM MDT WED MAY 30 2012

FOR KMCK...CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL
CONTINUE TO NUDGE NEAR TERMINAL WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME
GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS. FOR KGLD...DAYTIME
HEATING HAS ERODED MORNING STRATUS WITH CURRENT HEATING AND INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SETTING THE STAGE FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO BEGIN
IN THE NEXT HOUR OF TWO. FOR BOTH TERMINALS...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FROM ANY STORM THAT MOVES OVER THE
TERMINAL. CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A MVFR STRATUS DECK BY EARLY MORNING. STRATUS DECK SHOULD BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPING
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT WED MAY 30 2012

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-311345-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1045 AM MDT WED MAY 30 2012 /1145 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO
TRIBUNE KANSAS LINE...WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG AND EAST OF A OBERLIN TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL POSE THE GREATEST HAZARDS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT EAST OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
GENERALLY EAST OF THE COLORADO/KANSAS STATE LINE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
239 PM MDT WED MAY 30 2012

KSZ002-014-302100-
RAWLINS-THOMAS-
339 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND RAWLINS
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 337 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF MCDONALD...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3966 10077 3930 10121 3950 10139 3956 10139
      3957 10141 3966 10141 3968 10141 3974 10135
TIME...MOT...LOC 2040Z 303DEG 27KT 3962 10131

JRM