Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Goodland, KS

445 
WWUS53 KGLD 022251
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
451 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012

KSC063-109-022330-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-120802T2330Z/
LOGAN KS-GOVE KS-
551 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHWESTERN
GOVE AND SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM CDT...

AT 549 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE MONUMENT
ROCKS...AND WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  THE MONUMENT ROCKS.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 83 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 123 AND 140.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS RESULTING IN AREAS OF 
NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY IN BLOWING DIRT. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL AND BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITY.

&&

LAT...LON 3870 10057 3870 10106 3897 10106 3897 10081
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 327DEG 17KT 3886 10088
WIND...HAIL 60MPH <1.00IN
$$

024

476 
WWUS53 KGLD 022305
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012

KSC063-109-022315-
/O.CAN.KGLD.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-120802T2330Z/
LOGAN KS-GOVE KS-
605 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN GOVE AND
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR
PROPERTY...HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3870 10057 3870 10106 3897 10106 3897 10081
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 327DEG 17KT 3880 10083
$$

024

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
221 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012

THROUGH TONIGHT...CU FIELD CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. FEEL THIS
WILL BE A FAVORED LOCATION FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO HAVE ADDED IN A MENTION OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO INITIATE
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...CONVECTION
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA. HAVE UPPED POPS TO LIKELY OVER EASTERN COLORADO AFTER 00Z
WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE AS THE COMPLEX
BEGINS TO DIMINISH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY
AROUND 06Z. EXPECT A GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FRIDAY...WILL SEE ANOTHER DAY OF TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
100 DEGREES. SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF
A LEAD SURFACE TROUGH WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012

FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...WITH STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE TIMING OF
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE PERIOD. GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF OPERATIONAL MODELS BRINGS FRONT THROUGH THE AREA IN THE
6 TO 12Z SAT TIME PERIOD WITH PREVIOUS RUNS OF SREF AND GEFS SHOWING
SIMILAR TRENDS. HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT Q VECTORS INDICATE A STRONG
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE AGEOSTROPHIC WIND WHICH COULD SPEED UP
FROPA...BUT HARD TO IGNORE ALL THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN VARIOUS
SIMULATIONS. GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT...THINK BEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL COME IN BASICALLY 2 PERIODS. THE FIRST
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF FRONT DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SUGGESTING STORMS WILL INITIATE NEAR THE KS-CO
BORDER AND DRIFT EAST IN THE EVENING. BETTER CHANCES SHOULD OCCUR IN
THE 9 TO 15Z TIME FRAME ON SATURDAY AS DEEP FRONTAL CIRCULATION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND COLD FRONT...COLOCATED IN AREA OF LARGE
SCALE ASCENT AND WEAKLY CAPPED ELEVATED INSTABILITY. WHILE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE BETTER OVERNIGHT...OVERALL INSTABILITY LIMITED AND
THINK ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN IN THE
EARLY EVENING. AS FRONT CONTINUES TO DIVE TO THE SOUTH AND SHORT
WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS FORCING WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND MID LEVEL CINH INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS
BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH A COOLER...RELATIVELY
STABLE AIR MASS BUILDING OVER THE AREA THINK PRECIP CHANCES WILL END
FAIRLY QUICKLY AND REMAIN LOW THROUGH SUNDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE
COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPMENT OF RIDGE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH GFS ENSEMBLES AND ECMWF COMING
INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF THE
GFS. GIVEN RIDGE AXIS WILL BE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...THINK THERE
WILL BE AT LEAST A SMALL THREAT FOR STORMS AS WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE
AROUND PERIPHERY OF LARGE SCALE RIDGE. CONSENSUS PRODUCTS SEEM TO BE
SHOWING A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY WITH THE HIGHER POP VALUES
THOUGH...SO DO NOT THINK GOING MORE THAN ISOLATED DURING ANY PERIOD
IS WARRANTED. TEMPS WILL WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 90S LOW 100S
THROUGH THE WEEK. CONSIDERED GOING A BIT WARMER...ESPECIALLY IN
EAST BUT WITH POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY AM A LITTLE
CONCERNED ABOUT OUTFLOW HOLDING TEMPS BACK A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012

ONCE AGAIN EXPECTING CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE
AND FRONT RANGE WITH A GRADUAL PROGRESSION EASTWARD INTO EASTERN
COLORADO BY EARLY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AS TO
WHETHER EITHER TERMINAL WILL BE IMPACTED SO NO MENTION OF PRECIP
WILL BE INCLUDED IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FOLTZ
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...FOLTZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
340 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031330-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
340 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012 /440 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE
HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A SMALL CHANCE
FOR STORMS DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012

KSZ013-014-022130-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-
359 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SHERMAN
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 355 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF EDSON...MOVING EAST AT 15
MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3914 10160 3930 10160 3930 10116 3913 10116
      3913 10119
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 278DEG 14KT 3919 10139

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
321 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012

KSZ014-028-022145-
LOGAN-THOMAS-
421 PM CDT THU AUG 2 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND LOGAN
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 418 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF WINONA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 10139 3925 10139 3925 10098 3895 10097
TIME...MOT...LOC 2121Z 311DEG 27KT 3913 10128

024

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
349 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012

KSZ027-022215-
WALLACE-
349 PM MDT THU AUG 2 2012

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WALLACE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 345 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTH OF WESKAN...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 10170 3893 10170 3892 10204 3913 10205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2149Z 274DEG 9KT 3904 10189

024

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
414 PM MDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0412 PM     HEAVY RAIN       WINONA                  39.06N 101.25W
08/02/2012  M1.10 INCH       LOGAN              KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RELAYED BY EMERGENCY MANAGER

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
422 PM MDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 ENE WINONA            39.08N 101.18W
08/02/2012  E65 MPH          LOGAN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 65-70 MPH WIND AND PEA SIZE HAIL WITH NEAR ZERO
            VISIBILITY.

&&

MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
424 PM MDT THU AUG 02 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ENE WINONA            39.08N 101.18W
08/02/2012  M0.97 INCH       LOGAN              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED TO FALL WITHIN 20 MINUTE PERIOD WITH NEAR ZERO
            VISIBILITY.

&&

MOORE