Red Flag Warning 44, NWS Goodland, KS

850 
WWUS83 KGLD 190001
RFWGLD

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
601 PM MDT SAT AUG 18 2012


COZ252>254-KSZ001>003-013>015-027-028-NEZ079>081-190115-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0044.000000T0000Z-120819T0000Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-SHERMAN-
THOMAS-SHERIDAN-WALLACE-LOGAN-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
601 PM MDT SAT AUG 18 2012 /701 PM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012/

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS
EVENING FOR WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...
002...003...013...014...015...027...028...079...080...081...252...
253 AND 254...

WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR GREATER
ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS
WELL. THEREFORE...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
ON TIME. 

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GLD (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1254 PM MDT SAT AUG 18 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM MDT SAT AUG 18 2012

RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PLACE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH
AT LEAST SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND BE CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING FROM
NEBRASKA WILL YIELD A CHILLY NIGHT. RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR
TOMORROW RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S...THEY APPEAR SAFE BUT
IT WILL BE CLOSE. SUNDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WINDS SWINGING
AROUND TO SOUTH WITH RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM MDT SAT AUG 18 2012

SUNDAY NIGHT...ABOVE MENTIONED JET SEGMENT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT AFFECTING THE WESTERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. AGAIN LOOKS LIKE ONLY CLOUDS SINCE
THERE IS A DEEP DRY LAYER AT THE BOTTOM. WINDS ARE SLOW TO COME UP
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER COOL MINS ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...RIGHT REAR QUADRANT STARTS THE DAY OVER THE
AREA AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON. A LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE EVENING AS IT BEGINS
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN MID LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. ALL THIS LIFT TENDS TO AFFECT
THE SOUTHWEST HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE OTHER WHICH IS A SOUTHWARD
SHIFT SINCE YESTERDAY. ANOTHER PROBLEM IS THAT A LOT OF THE MODEL
OUTPUT IS SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. OVERALL KEPT THE
HIGHER CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTHWEST. ONLY MADE A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
ON MAXES BUT IF CLOUD COVER IS THICKER THAN EXPECTED WILL NEED TO
ADJUST DOWN.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DUE TO SHORT TERM CONCERNS/INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WAS NOT ABLE TO SPEED A LOT OF TIME ON THIS
PERIOD. LINGERING CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE DIFFERING FROM EACH OTHER IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE WESTERN
RIDGING AND HOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMES OVER THE TOP. GENERAL IDEA IS
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BRING CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY HAVING THE
GREATEST COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM MDT SAT AUG 18 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST WITH MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVING IN FROM NEBRASKA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...024

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
855 AM MDT SAT AUG 18 2012

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-191245-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
855 AM MDT SAT AUG 18 2012 /955 AM CDT SAT AUG 18 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.