Alert archive / Kansas / Red Flag Warnings in 2012
Red Flag Warning 17, NWS Goodland, KS
NWS Goodland, KS issued this red flag warning at Mar 16, 2012, 4:34 PM CDT for 13 counties in Kansas; Cheyenne County, Kit Carson County, Yuma County, Colorado; Dundy County, Hitchcock County, Red Willow County, Nebraska. It took effect at Mar 17, 2012, 12:00 PM CDT. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Mar 16, 2012, 4:34 PM CDT (21:34 UTC)
- In effect from
- Mar 17, 2012, 12:00 PM CDT
- Expired
- Mar 17, 2012, 9:08 PM CDT
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Goodland, KS
Counties Cheyenne County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Yuma County, CO, Cheyenne County, KS, Decatur County, KS, Gove County, KS, Graham County, KS, Greeley County, KS, Logan County, KS, Norton County, KS, Rawlins County, KS, Sheridan County, KS, Sherman County, KS, Thomas County, KS, Wallace County, KS, Wichita County, KS, Dundy County, NE, Hitchcock County, NE, Red Willow County, NE
The radar
The Goodland radar (KGLD), 40 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:36 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Denver, CO (KDNR), launched 12:00Z, 9.6 hours before the alert went out and 177 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2986 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -12 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 19 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
535 WWUS83 KGLD 162134 RFWGLD URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 334 PM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012 COZ252>254-170130- /O.UPG.KGLD.FW.A.0009.120317T1800Z-120318T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KGLD.FW.W.0017.120317T1700Z-120318T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KGLD.FW.W.0018.120318T1500Z-120319T0200Z/ /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-120317T0100Z/ YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO- 334 PM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 252 YUMA... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 253 KIT CARSON AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 254 CHEYENNE CO. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 CHEYENNE KS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 027 WALLACE AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 079 DUNDY. * WINDS...SATURDAY SOUTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH SUNDAY SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-NEZ079>081-170130- /O.UPG.KGLD.FW.A.0009.120317T1800Z-120318T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KGLD.FW.W.0017.120317T1700Z-120318T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KGLD.FW.A.0011.120318T1500Z-120319T0200Z/ /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-120317T0100Z/ CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-WALLACE-LOGAN- GOVE-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 334 PM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012 /434 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/ ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...003...013...014...015...027...028...029...079... 080 AND 081... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT SATURDAY FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SUNDAY FOR WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ SATURDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 252 YUMA... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 253 KIT CARSON AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 254 CHEYENNE CO. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 CHEYENNE KS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 027 WALLACE AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 079 DUNDY. * WINDS...SATURDAY SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH SUNDAY SOUTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ KSZ041-042-170130- /O.UPG.KGLD.FW.A.0009.120317T1800Z-120318T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KGLD.FW.W.0017.120317T1700Z-120318T0400Z/ /O.NEW.KGLD.FW.A.0011.120318T1500Z-120319T0200Z/ GREELEY-WICHITA- 334 PM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012 /434 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/ ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ SATURDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 042 WICHITA. * WINDS...SATURDAY SOUTH 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH SUNDAY SOUTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ KSZ004-016-170130- /O.NEW.KGLD.FW.A.0010.120317T1700Z-120318T0400Z/ NORTON-GRAHAM- 434 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 004 NORTON AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 016 GRAHAM. * WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ JTL
4 follow-up statements
605 WWUS83 KGLD 170058 RFWGLD URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 658 PM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012 COZ252>254-171200- /O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-120317T0100Z/ /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0017.120317T1700Z-120318T0400Z/ /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0018.120318T1500Z-120319T0200Z/ YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO- 658 PM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 252...253 AND 254... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 252...253 AND 254... ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 252...253 AND 254... THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY. * AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 252 YUMA... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 253 KIT CARSON AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 254 CHEYENNE CO. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 CHEYENNE KS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 027 WALLACE AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 079 DUNDY. * WINDS...SATURDAY SOUTH AT 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH SUNDAY SOUTHWEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-NEZ079>081-171200- /O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-120317T0100Z/ /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0017.120317T1700Z-120318T0400Z/ /O.CON.KGLD.FW.A.0011.120318T1500Z-120319T0200Z/ CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-WALLACE-LOGAN- GOVE-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 658 PM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012 /758 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/ ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...003...013...014... 015...027...028...029...079...080 AND 081... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...003...013...014...015...027... 028...029...079...080 AND 081... ...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...003...013...014...015...027...028...029...079... 080 AND 081... THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ SATURDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 252 YUMA... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 253 KIT CARSON AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 254 CHEYENNE CO. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 CHEYENNE KS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 027 WALLACE AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 079 DUNDY. * WINDS...SATURDAY SOUTH 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH SUNDAY SOUTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ KSZ041-042-171200- /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0017.120317T1700Z-120318T0400Z/ /O.CON.KGLD.FW.A.0011.120318T1500Z-120319T0200Z/ GREELEY-WICHITA- 658 PM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012 /758 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/ ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ SATURDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 041 AND 042... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 041 AND 042... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ SATURDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 042 WICHITA. * WINDS...SATURDAY SOUTH 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH SUNDAY SOUTH 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 10 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$ KSZ004-016-171200- /O.CON.KGLD.FW.A.0010.120317T1700Z-120318T0400Z/ NORTON-GRAHAM- 758 PM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012 ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 004 AND 016... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 004 NORTON AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 016 GRAHAM. * WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG WARNINGS. && $$
610 WWUS83 KGLD 170748 RFWGLD URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 148 AM MDT SAT MAR 17 2012 KSZ003-015-029-NEZ081-171800- /O.CAN.KGLD.FW.A.0011.120318T1500Z-120319T0200Z/ /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0017.120317T1700Z-120318T0400Z/ DECATUR-SHERIDAN-GOVE-RED WILLOW- 248 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 003...015...029 AND 081... ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS CANCELLED FOR SUNDAY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 003...015...029 AND 081... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 252 YUMA... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 253 KIT CARSON AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 254 CHEYENNE CO. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 CHEYENNE KS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 027 WALLACE AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 079 DUNDY. * WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042-NEZ079-080-171800- /O.UPG.KGLD.FW.A.0011.120318T1500Z-120319T0200Z/ /O.EXA.KGLD.FW.W.0018.120318T1500Z-120319T0200Z/ /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0017.120317T1700Z-120318T0400Z/ CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-WALLACE-LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA- DUNDY-HITCHCOCK- 148 AM MDT SAT MAR 17 2012 /248 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012/ ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...013... 014...027...028...041...042...079 AND 080... ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...013...014...027...028...041...042... 079 AND 080... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ SUNDAY. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 252 YUMA... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 253 KIT CARSON AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 254 CHEYENNE CO. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 CHEYENNE KS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 027 WALLACE AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 079 DUNDY. * WINDS TODAY...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS SUNDAY...SOUTH 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 9 PERCENT TODAY AND 15 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ KSZ004-016-171800- /O.UPG.KGLD.FW.A.0010.120317T1700Z-120318T0400Z/ /O.EXA.KGLD.FW.W.0017.120317T1700Z-120318T0400Z/ NORTON-GRAHAM- 248 AM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 004 AND 016... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 004 NORTON AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 016 GRAHAM. * WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 15 PERCENT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ COZ252>254-171800- /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0017.120317T1700Z-120318T0400Z/ /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0018.120318T1500Z-120319T0200Z/ YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO- 148 AM MDT SAT MAR 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 252...253 AND 254... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 252...253 AND 254... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY. * AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 252 YUMA... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 253 KIT CARSON AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 254 CHEYENNE CO. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 CHEYENNE KS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 SHERMAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 027 WALLACE AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 079 DUNDY. * WINDS TODAY...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ON SUNDAY...SOUTH 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 7 PERCENT TODAY AND AS LOW AS 12 PERCENT ON SUNDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$
816 WWUS83 KGLD 171802 RFWGLD URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 1202 PM MDT SAT MAR 17 2012 COZ252>254-KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042-NEZ079-080-180200- /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120318T0400Z/ /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0018.120318T1500Z-120319T0200Z/ YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-SHERMAN-THOMAS- WALLACE-LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK- 1202 PM MDT SAT MAR 17 2012 /102 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012/ ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...003...013...014...015...027...028...029...079 ...080...252...253 AND 254... ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...003...013...014... 015...027...028...029...079...080...252...253 AND 254... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT /11 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ SUNDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY. * AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 252 YUMA... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 253 KIT CARSON AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 254 CHEYENNE CO. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 CHEYENNE KS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 002 RAWLINS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 003 DECATUR... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 004 NORTON...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 SHERMAN... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014 THOMAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 015 SHERIDAN... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 016 GRAHAM...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 027 WALLACE... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 028 LOGAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 029 GOVE...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 042 WICHITA. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 079 DUNDY... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 080 HITCHCOCK. * WINDS TODAY...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ON SUNDAY...SOUTH 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 5 PERCENT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ KSZ003-004-015-016-029-NEZ081-180200- /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120318T0400Z/ DECATUR-NORTON-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-GOVE-RED WILLOW- 102 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 003...015...029 AND 081... A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING. * AFFECTED AREA...IN KANSAS...ZONE 003 DECATUR...ZONE 15 SHERIDAN...ZONE 29 GOVE. IN NEBRASKA...ZONE 81 RED WILLOW. * WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 13 PERCENT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$
429 WWUS83 KGLD 180208 RFWGLD URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 808 PM MDT SAT MAR 17 2012 COZ252>254-KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042-NEZ079-080-181215- /O.CAN.KGLD.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120318T0400Z/ /O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0018.120318T1500Z-120319T0200Z/ YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-SHERMAN-THOMAS- WALLACE-LOGAN-GREELEY-WICHITA-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK- 808 PM MDT SAT MAR 17 2012 /908 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012/ ...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ SUNDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...013...014...027...028...041... 042...079...080...252...253 AND 254... ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 001...002...013...014...027... 028...041...042...079...080...252...253 AND 254... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ SUNDAY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM MDT /9 PM CDT/ SUNDAY. * AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 252 YUMA... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 253 KIT CARSON AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 254 CHEYENNE CO. IN KANSAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 001 CHEYENNE KS... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 002 RAWLINS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 013 SHERMAN... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 014 THOMAS...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 027 WALLACE... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 028 LOGAN...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 041 GREELEY AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 042 WICHITA. IN NEBRASKA...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 079 DUNDY... FIRE WEATHER ZONE 080 HITCHCOCK. * WINDS...SOUTH 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH. * RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 3 PERCENT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL. && $$ KSZ003-004-015-016-029-NEZ081-180315- /O.CAN.KGLD.FW.W.0017.000000T0000Z-120318T0400Z/ DECATUR-NORTON-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-GOVE-RED WILLOW- 908 PM CDT SAT MAR 17 2012 ...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 003...004...015...016...029 AND 081... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS CANCELLED THE RED FLAG WARNING. WINDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA. THEREFORE THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this red flag warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this red flag warning went out at Mar 16, 4:16 PM CDT, 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 16, 4:16 PM CDT, 18 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
316 PM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE WEST
WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA EAST. DESPITE THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY...WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 20+ DEGREES ABOVE THE SURFACE AND 850 TEMPS
AROUND 20C.
SATURDAY MORNING THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR SOME PATCHY FOG FOR THE
NORTON AND HILL CITY AREA WITH THE LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEST WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTH AS A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN COLORADO. CIN VALUES
BECOME MINIMAL DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES WELL
MIXED UP TO 500MB OR SO. HOWEVER WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY DUE TO
THE DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE AND GUSTS AROUND 35
MPH. THE GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA...FOR MORE
INFORMATION SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS STRONG H5 TROUGH GRADUALLY MOVES INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA...BRINGING STRONG AND DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE ENTIRE
AREA. AT LEAST WITH RESPECT TO LARGER PATTERN...SHORT RANGE MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT OF DRY
LINE REMAIN WHICH WILL BE INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT AS FAR AS FORECAST
IMPACTS GO. INITIALLY DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A
THUNDERSTORM THREAT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY AS MOIST
AXIS GRADUALLY BACKS INTO THE AREA. WHILE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
THERE...CINH LOOKS VERY STRONG AND WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
ORGANIZED FORCING...DO NOT THINK ASCENT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO
SATURATE PARCELS OR OVERCOME STRONG CAP. CYCLOGENESIS WILL BEGIN TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND BECOME QUITE STRONG DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO.
WHILE BULK OF MODELS AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE KEEP DRYLINE ACROSS THE
EXTREME FRINGE OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD HAVE CONCERNS
THAT THE STRONG PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO OFFSET
ANY EASTWARD PUSH DUE TO ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS RESULTING IN A
DRY LINE THAT DOES NOT MOVE MUCH AND THEN SURGES WESTWARD ONCE PEAK
HEATING DIMINISHES. WITH BULK OF DATA NOT SUPPORTING THIS SCENARIO
THOUGH CANNOT GET TO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT IT AT THIS TIME...BUT DO THINK
EXPANDING THREAT FOR THUNDER WESTWARD AND INCREASING VALUES SOMEWHAT
IN ORDER. GIVEN VERY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY THINK SEVERE STORMS A VERY GOOD BET SHOULD STORMS
INITIATE...WITH STORMS ORGANIZING INTO A NORTH/SOUTH LINE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WITH THE EXPECTED CYCLOGENESIS...STRONG WINDS LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. MIXED LAYER DATA OFF OF BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS SUPPORT
SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE 35-40KT RANGE ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 55KTS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. THINK CURRENT
HIGH WIND WATCH LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. HAVE CONCERNS THAT
STRONGER WINDS POSSIBLE IN ENTIRE AREA TO THE WEST OF DRYLINE AS
THINGS WILL BE VERY WELL MIXED AND THINK EXPANDING INTO NEBRASKA
WARRANTED AT THIS TIME. CONSIDERED EXTENDING INTO RED WILLOW COUNTY
BUT AFOREMENTIONED CONCERNS ABOUT DRY LINE PLACEMENT KEEP CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW. STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS FAIRLY
EASY TO MEET IN ALL AREAS WEST OF THE DRYLINE. CONFIDENCE IN WESTERN
TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES IS PRETTY MUCH AT WARNING LEVELS AND HAVE WENT
BACK AND FORTH ABOUT WATCH VS WARNING WITH MULTIPLE HIGHLIGHTS OUT.
WHILE TIME RANGE IS USUALLY OUTSIDE OF WARNING PERIOD...THINK
EXTREMELY CRITICAL NATURE OF CONDITIONS WARRANTS AN EARLY WARNING
FOR LOCATIONS WHERE CONFIDENCE THE HIGHEST AND A WATCH ELSEWHERE.
MONDAY-FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF STRONG TROUGH THAT WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT
TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE WITH RESPECT TO
HOW LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID WEST ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH GEFS SPAGHETTI PLOTS SUGGEST THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM REGARDLESS OF
OPERATIONAL MODEL AGREEMENT. MOST PRESSING CONCERN WILL BE ON MONDAY
AS STRONG PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH 4 CORNERS TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA...BRINGING A PERIOD OF STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT TO THE AREA. WHILE FORCING LOOKS GOOD...STRONGEST PRESSURE
FALLS SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
DRYLINE TO ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST...MITIGATING THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT EXCEPT FOR ALL BUT THE EASTERN FRINGE OF THE AREA. GIVEN THE
RAPID EASTWARD MOTION OF THE DRYLINE...THINK BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION MAY BE ON BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE STRONG AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS AND WEAK STATIC STABILITY LINE UP. PRECIP IN THIS AREA
WOULD BE MUCH MUCH LIGHTER THAN WITH THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST AND
GIVEN LITTLE IF ANY MUCAPE...MAY NOT SEE ANY THUNDER IN THIS AREA.
AFTER MONDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE REALLY BECOME MUCH MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS TROUGH WITH NONE OF THE
AVAILABLE OPERATIONAL RUNS HOLDING ON TO THE CLOSED /CUTOFF LOW
ACROSS THE PLAINS...RESULTING IN A WARMER/DRIER SCENARIO ACROSS THE
REGION. THINK LOWERING POPS AND RAISING TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN
ORDER...BUT WITH SEVERAL GEFS SPAGHETTI MEMBERS HOLDING ONTO THIS
SOLUTION...THINK HOLDING ONTO SOME LOW POPS NOT UNREASONABLE AT THE
MOMENT ALTHOUGH 30-50% SWING IN ENSEMBLE POPS DOES NOT RAISE
CONFIDENCE MUCH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1054 AM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH TODAY
WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE SUBSIDING NEAR 23-00Z
TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL THEN VEER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS
IN THE 7-8 KNOT RANGE. LATE IN THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY AT KGLD AND JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD AT KMCK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
SATURDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS OF 30 TO 35 MPH. THERE STILL EXISTS SOME
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR EAST THE 40 DEGREE DEW POINTS WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY HAVE THEM JUST EAST OF GRAHAM
AND NORTON COUNTIES. DURATION OF THE GUSTY WINDS IS ALSO A CONCERN
FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES. AS A RESULT AM NOT AS CONFIDENT THE NORTON AND
GRAHAM COUNTIES WILL MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA FOR A LONG
ENOUGH DURATION TO WARRANT A WARNING AT THIS TIME...SO WILL LEAVE
THEM IN A WATCH FOR NOW. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DISSIPATE FROM EAST TO WEST DURING THE EVENING...SO WILL HAVE THE
WARNING/WATCH RUNNING UNTIL 4Z.
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS APPROACHING 40 MPH ON SUNDAY...MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL UNDER THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
MAIN CONCERN WILL HOW FAR EAST DRY LINE REACHES BEFORE SYNOPTIC
SCALE IMPACTS BEGIN TO FORCE IT WEST. CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY WARNING IN THIS
AREA. FURTHER EAST...WHILE OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AS FAR EAST AS MCCOOK...HAVE MY CONCERNS THAT DRYLINE MAY
BE QUICKER TO RETREAT WESTWARD AND THINK WATCH IS WARRANTED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012
RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY. SITES IN
JEOPARDY INCLUDE GOODLAND (82 IN 1908)...HILL CITY (81 IN 2011)...
BURLINGTON (77 IN 1999)...YUMA (78)...TRIBUNE (79)...AND COLBY
(81).
RECORD AND NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY IN
GOODLAND (83 IN 1907)...HILL CITY (86 IN 1994)...
BURLINGTON (80 IN 1994)...MCCOOK (80 IN 1966)...YUMA (80)...
TRIBUNE (83)...COLBY (83).
RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN MCCOOK (84 IN 2007).
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ252>254.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 10 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ252>254.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
COZ090>092.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ252>254.
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 10 PM MDT /11 PM
CDT/ SATURDAY FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR KSZ001>003-013>015-027>029-041-042.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ004-016.
NE...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ079>081.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM MDT /NOON CDT/ TO 10 PM MDT /11 PM
CDT/ SATURDAY FOR NEZ079>081.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NEZ079>081.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
NEZ079-080.
&&
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM....JRM
AVIATION...BAS
FIRE WEATHER...JRM/JTLHazardous weather outlook, Mar 16, 5:00 AM CDT, 11 hours 34 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 400 AM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012 COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-171200- YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON- SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA- DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW- 400 AM MDT FRI MAR 16 2012 /500 AM CDT FRI MAR 16 2012/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL COMBINE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 7 PERCENT TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY AS LOW AS 8 PERCENT TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. ON SUNDAY A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. BLOWING DIRT AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE VERY STRONG WINDS AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITY OF 10 TO 20 PERCENT WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA THROUGH HOXIE AND GOVE KANSAS. THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE MONDAY. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Goodland, KS issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 4:30 AM CDT | Red Flag Warning | GLD | Cheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Logan, Rawlins, Sheridan and 3 more | 16 hr |
| Mar 16, 4:40 AM CDT | High Wind Watch | GLD | Cheyenne, Decatur, Greeley, Logan, Rawlins, Sherman and 3 more | 48 hr |
| Mar 16, 4:34 PM CDT | Fire Weather Watch | GLD | Graham, Norton | 10 hr |
| Mar 16, 4:34 PM CDT | Fire Weather Watch | GLD | Cheyenne, Decatur, Gove, Greeley, Logan, Rawlins and 5 more | 10 hr |
| Mar 16, 4:34 PM CDT | Red Flag Warning | GLD | Cheyenne, Greeley, Logan, Rawlins, Sherman, Thomas and 2 more | 52 hr |
Nearby
Red Flag Warnings in Kansas, 2012Red Flag Warnings in Colorado, 2012Red Flag Warnings in Nebraska, 2012Every red flag warning in 2012
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.