Frost Advisory 4, NWS Goodland, KS

038 
WWUS73 KGLD 091352
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
752 AM MDT WED MAY 9 2012


KSZ003-004-015-016-NEZ080-081-091500-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FR.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120509T1400Z/
DECATUR-NORTON-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OBERLIN...NORTON...HOXIE...HILL CITY...
TRENTON...MCCOOK
852 AM CDT WED MAY 9 2012

...FROST ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING...

WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...THE FROST ADVISORY WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$
JTL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
600 PM MDT TUE MAY 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE MAY 8 2012

THROUGH TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...A GENERALLY CLEAR SKY AND LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE
30S TO LOW 40S. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED GENERALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AS WELL AS A
FEW LOCATIONS IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...PRIMARILY THE FLAGLER
AREA. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST AREAS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AS A RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES WITH SOUTHERLY AT
AROUND AROUND 10 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE MAY 8 2012

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS WILL RESIDE OVER THE TRI-STATE REGION ON
THURSDAY AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
AHEAD OF A DEEPENING NORTHERN STREAM WESTERN CONUS TROUGH. AT THE
SAME TIME A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MEANDER EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTHERN OLD MEXICO AND INTO THE BIG BEND REGION OF TEXAS.

BY EARLY FRIDAY...THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH A GEM BEING THE LONE EXCEPTION...GUIDANCE
IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF THE FRONT
THOUGH THEY DO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH. NAM IS THE MOST BULLISH IN
DEPICTING STRONG PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH WOULD YIELD
AT LEAST FEW HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE NAM IS ALSO THE MOST BULLISH ON KEEPING TEMPS
COLDER ON FRIDAY AS COMPARED TO THE REMAINING GUIDANCE. DID TREND
MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST.
MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH YET IF THE NAM WERE TO VERIFY BUT FEEL IT'S
A TREND IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION AT LEAST.

NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT PRECIP CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES OVER PRIMARILY THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE DURING THE FRIDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY
TIME FRAME AS THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEGIN TO MERGE
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. INSTABILITY APPEARS MEAGER AT BEST
SO WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED THUNDER MENTION UNTIL SUNDAY. TEMPS OVER
THE WEEKEND WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS ON
SATURDAY STRUGGLING TO REACH THE 60 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS LIKELY REBOUNDING INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT TUE MAY 8 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE PERIOD AS SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER
THE AREA BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. COULD POSSIBLY SEE SOME MIST DEVELOP AROUND MCK AROUND
12Z...BUT PROBABILITIES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE ANY FLIGHT CATEGORY
REDUCTION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...007/FOLTZ
LONG TERM...FOLTZ
AVIATION...JRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1240 PM MDT TUE MAY 8 2012

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1240 PM MDT TUE MAY 8 2012 /140 PM CDT TUE MAY 8 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PATCHY FROST IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING GENERALLY EAST OF
A LINE FROM NEAR BENKELMAN NEBRASKA TO HOXIE AND HILL CITY KANSAS.
ANOTHER AREA WILL BE IN THE KIRK...IDALIA AND FLAGLER AREAS OF
COLORADO.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
VERY LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.