Frost Advisory 2, NWS Goodland, KS

998 
WWUS73 KGLD 091405
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
805 AM MDT MON APR 9 2012

COZ090-KSZ001>004-NEZ079>081-091515-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FR.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-120409T1400Z/
YUMA-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-
RED WILLOW-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...YUMA...WRAY...ST. FRANCIS...ATWOOD...
OBERLIN...NORTON...BENKELMAN...TRENTON...MCCOOK
805 AM MDT MON APR 9 2012 /905 AM CDT MON APR 9 2012/

...FROST ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ACROSS
THE TRI-STATE REGION. THEREFORE THE FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
246 PM MDT SUN APR 8 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN APR 8 2012

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING...STALLING
JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.  NORTH OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING THANKS TO THE
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.  WITH LOWS NEAR FREEZING DECIDED TO ISSUE A
FROST ADVISORY FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 36.  AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS FORECAST...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES VERY
LIKELY TO COOL TO AT LEAST THE MID 30S FOR A COUPLE HOURS DECIDED TO
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE THE ADVISORY.

SOUTH OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO
THE AREA.  KEPT IN THE MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BE...AND ALSO PLACED IN A MENTION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE TRI-STATE AREA SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE WHERE THE MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOT AS GOOD BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOLING TO NEAR THE DEW POINT.  AT THIS
TIME AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDE SPREAD DENSE FOG TO FORM...HOWEVER A
NARROW CORRIDOR AROUND THE TRIBUNE AND LEOTI AREA MAY HAVE THE
DENSEST FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN HALF A MILE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY THE FOG WILL CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING.  MEANWHILE THE WEAK
COLD FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA.  INSTABILITY INCREASES SOUTH OF THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS DEW POINTS INCREASE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S.
HOWEVER DECIDED AGAINST PLACING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE LACK OF A SOURCE FOR LIFT TO OVERCOME THE WEAK CAP THAT IS IN
PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 PM MDT SUN APR 8 2012

WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON TUESDAY.
WITH INSTABILITY INCREASING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ANTICIPATE AT
LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS BUT COULD SEE A FEW SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS DURING THE DAY.

MID/UPPER FLOW TRANSITION TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE MID/UPPER RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A
BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TAKES ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE
TILT. LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT THE BASE OF THE MEAN FLOW
AND ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BROAD-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT INCREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME DISCREPANCY ON EXACT TIMING AND
PLACEMENT BUT APPEARS THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. IF CURRENT PROGS
ARE VALID...CONVECTION WILL FIRE OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH TIME. PRECIP
CHANCES END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS
THE REGION. ONE FACTOR THAT MAY HINDER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE PERSISTENT STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.

BROAD TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW PROGGED TO
IMPACT THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE WOULD
SUPPORT BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION GIVEN PROGGED MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PROFILES.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE A DRY DAY AS THE WESTERN CONUS TROUGH RELOADS.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. RATHER THAN
THE MEAN TROUGH SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS WAS ADVERTISED
THIS TIME YESTERDAY...GUIDANCE IS NOW HOLDING THE MEAN TROUGH BACK
UNTIL AT LEAST SUNDAY. HAVE OPTED TO HOLD THE LINE ON THE GOING
POP FORECAST RATHER THAN JUMPING AROUND. WILL CERTAINLY NEED
CONTINUED REFINEMENT FOR THE POP/WX FORECAST FOR THE COMING
WEEKEND AS OVERALL FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WEDNESDAY. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ANTICIPATE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT STRATUS DECK AS MOISTURE FLOWS BACK
INTO THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS. PRIOR FORECAST HAD THIS
HANDLED WELL SO NO MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SUN APR 8 2012

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SLIGHTLY GUSTY WINDS
AT KMCK WILL DIMINISH EARLY IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND SWITCH AROUND TO THE EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE NAM/RUC IS BEGINNING TO
SHOW VIS RESTRICTIONS INTO THE KGLD TERMINAL 12-15Z. AM SKEPTICAL
AT THIS POINT DUE TO MODEL INCONSISTENCIES AND LOCATION OF
RESTRICTIONS. SINCE FAR IN TIME...WILL MENTION HERE INITIALLY AND
LEAVE OUT OF TAF. NEXT SHIFT CAN READDRESS THIS ISSUE FOR 00Z TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM CDT MONDAY FOR KSZ001>004.

CO...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ090.

NE...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM MDT /4 AM CDT/ TO 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/
     MONDAY FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FOLTZ
AVIATION...BAS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
355 AM MDT SUN APR 8 2012

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
355 AM MDT SUN APR 8 2012 /455 AM CDT SUN APR 8 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 AM MDT (9 AM CDT)
THIS MORNING.

FROST IS POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.