Red Flag Warning 4, NWS Grand Junction, CO

774 
WWUS85 KGJT 281343
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
743 AM MDT WED MAR 28 2012

...ANOTHER APPROACHING SPRING STORM BRINGS DRY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS...

.THE NEXT PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES ONSHORE THIS MORNING
AND WORKS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
INCREASE THE SOUTHWEST WINDS. MUCH ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL HELP TO MIX OCCASIONAL GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH TO
THE SURFACE AND ALSO REDUCE HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT. THE LOWER
ELEVATION WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND HUMIDITY TO BEGIN TO
RECOVER AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING.

COZ200-202-UTZ444-290145-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0004.120328T1800Z-120329T0200Z/
LITTLE SNAKE FORECAST AREA-WHITE RIVER FORECAST AREA-
EAST TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
743 AM MDT WED MAR 28 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT
THIS EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...202 AND 444 BELOW 8500 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 200 LITTLE 
  SNAKE FORECAST AREA AND FIRE WEATHER ZONE 202 WHITE RIVER 
  FORECAST AREA. IN UTAH...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 444 EAST TAVAPUTS 
  PLATEAU.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...11 TO 16 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRE IGNITIONS MAY BE VERY DIFFICULT TO CONTROL 
  WITH LARGE RATES OF SPREAD POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN 
  SIMPLE AGRICULTURAL BURNS WILL RISK A LOSS OF CONTROL. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND AFFECTED FIELD
PERSONNEL OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GJT (ALL LOWER CASE)

564 
WWUS85 KGJT 282107
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
307 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH FOR GUSTY
WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS...

.A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY COMBINED WITH AFTERNOON MIXING HAS
RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

COZ200-202-UTZ444-290200-
/O.CON.KGJT.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120329T0200Z/
LITTLE SNAKE FORECAST AREA-WHITE RIVER FORECAST AREA-
EAST TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
307 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ZONES 200...202 AND 444 BELOW 8500 FEET...

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO... 
                  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 200 LITTLE SNAKE FORECAST AREA...
                  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 202 WHITE RIVER FORECAST AREA. 
                  IN UTAH...
                  FIRE WEATHER ZONE 444 EAST TAVAPUTS PLATEAU.

* WINDS...SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...10 TO 15 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRE IGNITIONS MAY BE VERY DIFFICULT TO CONTROL
  WITH LARGE RATES OF SPREAD POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
  EVEN SIMPLE AGRICULTURAL BURNS WILL RISK A LOSS OF CONTROL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND AFFECTED FIELD
PERSONNEL OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GJT (ALL LOWER CASE)

747 
WWUS85 KGJT 290154
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
754 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2012


COZ200-202-UTZ444-290300-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FW.W.0004.000000T0000Z-120329T0200Z/
LITTLE SNAKE FORECAST AREA-WHITE RIVER FORECAST AREA-
EAST TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-
754 PM MDT WED MAR 28 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
200...202 AND 444...

LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS DIMINSHING AS THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES. THE RED FLAG WARNING IS NO LONGER NEEDED AND WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GJT (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1037 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012

DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...PROGRESSIVE RIDGE AXIS OVER UTAH WILL
MOVE DOWNSTREAM TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ENERGY EJECTING FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF HIGH
CLOUDS. OPAQUE HIGH CLOUD OVER WRN UTAH AND TRAILING INTO SRN NEVADA
WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INTO ERN UTAH AND NW COLORADO. NOT
EXPECTING THIS TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MIDNIGHT. MORE HIGH CLOUDS
IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. GRADIENT
FLOW INCREASES A NOTCH AND COMBINED WITH WARMER AFTERNOON
TEMPS...EXPECT SOUTHWEST BREEZES TO DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING
HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012

TROUGH AXIS DRAGS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THU MORNING AS THE MAIN
BODY OF THE SHORTWAVE ZIPS ACROSS MT/WY. SYSTEM WILL BE SHORT ON
MOISTURE...BUT TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS SHOW ENOUGH LOWER-LEVEL RH THE
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS LATE WED NIGHT
AND THU. THIS TROUGH WILL ALSO RESULT IN HIGH TEMPS THU BEING A TAD
COOLER. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE PASSES ABOUT FRI MORNING...BUT AGAIN
LITTLE OR NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS/ECMWF/
CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE GFS NO LONGER
THE LAGGARD. MODELS NOW SHOW IT REMAINING A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE
WITH THE TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSING ON SUNDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE BIGGEST IMPACT...HOWEVER...MAY BE WINDS ONCE
AGAIN AS SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDY SUNDAY AS WELL AS FLOW BECOMES
WEST. TEMPS WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY SATURDAY...THEN COOL SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BEHIND THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REGARDS CONTINUED LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES
AND POTENTIAL GUSTY WINDS FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ELECTED NOT TO
HOIST ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCHES OR RED FLAG WARNINGS AS WIND GUSTS
OF 25 MPH OR GREATER WILL BE LOCALIZED AND NOT WIDESPREAD. WITH NO
THICKNESS PACKING...THE LACK OF A SURFACE TROUGH...AND NO DYNAMICAL
FORCING...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE IS ANY MECHANISM FOR SUSTAINED
WIND GUSTS OF 25 MPH OR GREATER OTHER THAN RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED
LAYER DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. INSTEAD...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO
BE MORE ERRATIC AND THEREFORE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BE LOCALIZED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....PF
LONG TERM......JAD
AVIATION.......CC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
545 AM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-281145-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
545 AM MDT TUE MAR 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

THE NEXT STRONG STORM IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

TGJT