Red Flag Warning 38, NWS Grand Junction, CO

593 
WWUS85 KGJT 171754 AAA
RFWGJT

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1154 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR COLORADO ZONE 207 BELOW 10,000 FEET MSL
THROUGH 8 PM MDT TONIGHT FOR LOW HUMIDITY...GUSTY WINDS...AND DRY
FUELS...

.AFTER LAST NIGHT'S COLD FRONT PASSAGE...A COOL...VERY DRY AIR
MASS IS POURING INTO THE REGION. HUMIDITIES WILL BE VERY LOW THIS
AFTERNOON...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUST TO 25 MPH
BECOMING WIDESPREAD. THEREFORE A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR COLORADO ZONE 207 WHERE FUELS ARE DRY.

COZ207-180200-
/O.CAN.KGJT.FW.W.0038.121018T1700Z-121019T0800Z/
/O.NEW.KGJT.FW.W.0039.121017T1754Z-121018T0200Z/
DURANGO FORECAST AREA-
1154 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR
GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE
207...
...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...
AND DRY FUELS FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND JUNCTION HAS ISSUED A RED
FLAG WARNING FOR GUSTY WINDS...LOW HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS...
WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING. THE RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* AFFECTED AREA...IN COLORADO...FIRE WEATHER ZONE 207 DURANGO 
  FORECAST AREA.

* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...8 TO 13 PERCENT.

* IMPACTS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS WILL CREATE CRITICAL 
  FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

PLEASE ADVISE THE APPROPRIATE OFFICIALS AND AFFECTED FIELD
PERSONNEL OF THIS RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/GJT (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
310 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2012

LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS HANGING ON EARLY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT THAT IS NOW SWEEPING IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. SFC DEW POINTS
HAVE SHOWN A DRAMATIC DROP IN THE KVEL AREA AND HUMIDITY VALUES
DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. EXPECT THIS TO MODIFY SOMEWHAT AS
WINDS DIMINISH...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO POOL BACK INTO THE
VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE BASIC TREND IS IN PLACE WITH MUCH DRIER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT WHAT
FEW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY GIVE WAY
TO SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS RUNNING A GOOD 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER IN MOST LOCALES.

A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH CHILLY TEMPS EXPECTED BY SUNRISE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. DURING THE DAY HEIGHTS WILL RISE A LITTLE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...BUT THE COOL DRY
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER OUR CWA. MAX TEMPS LOOK LIKE
THEY WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2012

HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO REBOUND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FLOW ALOFT
TRANSITIONS TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...ACCOMPANIED BY WARM
ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WITH READINGS A LITTLE WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NO BIG CHANGES ARE SEEN FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH PACIFIC ENERGY
PUNCHES INTO THE NWRN STATES WHICH BEGINS TO FLATTEN THE FLOW. OUR
CWA HOWEVER REMAINS DRY AND MILD WITH TEMPS RUNNING 5-7 DEGREES
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

HEIGHTS TUMBLE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO ENERGY
PUSHING INTO THE PACNW. THIS WILL SEND A SERIES OF FAST MOVING AND
ENERGETIC WAVES EAST THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN. A FEW OF THESE
SYSTEMS WILL CLIP THE FORECAST AREA WITH ONE ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY
TO BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
VALLEYS. THE EC AND GFS START TO DIVERGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE GFS KEEPING BETTER ENERGY TO OUR WEST AND NORTH...WITH DRY
PATTERN IN PLACE. THE EC IS SLIGHTLY WETTER...BUT AT THIS DISTANCE
OUT...WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE SOLUTION AND KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THE FCST FOR MAINLY THE NORTHERN-TIER ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2012

A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE
FROM KLXV TO KCEZ. THIS WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 45 TO 50 MPH. BRIEF MVFR VSBY
IN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AFTER 15Z...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE ENTIRE REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2012

DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH LOCALLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER TODAY. WHILE THE FLOW WILL BE DRY...CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY NOT ANTICIPATED. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH
WHERE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE LOWEST...THAT APPROACH OR EVEN
EXCEED CRITICAL VALUES FOR A SHORT DURATION. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JDC/MC
LONG TERM...JDC/MC
AVIATION...JDC
FIRE WEATHER...JDC/EH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
504 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2012

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-181200-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
504 AM MDT WED OCT 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND LINGER THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.