Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Grand Junction, CO

787 
WGUS75 KGJT 281939
FFSGJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
139 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2012

COC113-282130-
/O.CON.KGJT.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120728T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN MIGUEL CO-
139 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL
COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

AT 132 PM MDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED A MUD SLIDE 
AND ROCKS ON THE HIGHWAY 145 NEAR THE INTERSECTION WITH HIGHWAY 62 
RESULTING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. CDOT WAS ON THE SCENE WITH EQUIPMENT 
CLEARING THE ROADWAY.

THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVER THE AREA HAD DISSIPATED BUT DOPPLER RADAR 
ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.75 INCHES FELL OVER 
AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 145 SOUTH OF PLACERVILLE IN A LITTLE OVER AN 
HOUR. NEW STORMS WERE FORMING OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL ADD TO THE 
CONSIDERABLE TOTALS. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL 
CONTINUE OVER EAST CENTRAL SAN MIGUEL COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY.

&&

LAT...LON 3808 10797 3792 10799 3794 10814 3810 10812

$$

420 
WGUS75 KGJT 282129
FFSGJT

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
329 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2012

COC113-282141-
/O.EXP.KGJT.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-120728T2130Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SAN MIGUEL CO-
329 PM MDT SAT JUL 28 2012

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL SAN
MIGUEL COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 330 PM MDT...

SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED.  EXCESS RUNOFF THAT HELPED 
PRODUCE MUD DEBRIS FLOWS OR ROCKSLIDES NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF 
HIGHWAY 62 AND 145 HAVE SUBSIDED.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY 
INTO THE EVENING HOURS.   

IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW 
ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3808 10797 3792 10799 3794 10814 3810 10812

$$

PF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1039 AM MDT SAT JUL 28 2012

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT SAT JUL 28 2012

TODAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOVE AN INCH ON THE 00Z SOUNDING AND
SHOWERS PERSISTING OVERNIGHT...WILL EXPECT A CONTINUED UPTURN IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WV AND IR SATELLITE SHOW
THE MONSOON PIPELINE EXTENDING FROM WEST-CENTRAL CO TO THE FOUR
CORNERS AND ACROSS EASTERN AZ. THERE ARE NO DISCERNABLE DYNAMIC
FEATURES TO FOCUS CONVECTION...BUT JUST LIKE FRIDAY THERE WILL BE
PLENTY OF OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/DISCONTINUITIES IN MOISTURE IN
PLACE TO HELP SPUR CONVECTION. THE BEST AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE
OVER SW AND CENTRAL CO AND SE UT...WITH FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER
NE UT AND EXTREME NW CO DUE TO LESS AVAILABLE MOISTURE. HAVE
BUMPED UP POPS FOR TODAY FOR MOST AREAS. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR
A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HEALTHY MONSOONAL PLUME WILL BE
POSITIONED OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH MAXIMUM PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT EXCEEDING AN INCH. AIR MASS NOT QUITE AS MOIST OVER THE
NWRN PORTION (ERN UINTA MOUNTAINS)...BUT MOISTURE PLUME
ESSENTIALLY COVERS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. EVENING SHOWERS WILL
BE SLOW TO DIMINISH...BUT SHOULD BE ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT EXCEPT
OF 1-2 ROGUE SHOWERS THAT LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR
ENVIRONMENT ON SUNDAY WITH THE DEEPEST LAYERED MOISTURE POSITIONED
OVER SW AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS SECTION HAS THE THREAT OF
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS...BUT DIMINISHING DURING
THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM MDT SAT JUL 28 2012

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HIGH CORE REMAINS OVER THE SRN PLAINS
BUT AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE ALONG THE BAJA COAST. THIS CHANGES
THE ROUTE THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME REACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
THIS EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE SENDING WEAK IMPULSES TOWARD OUR
FORECAST AREA AND KEEPS OUR AIR MASS MOIST AND UNSTABLE. POTENTIAL
FOR SOME TRAINING CELLS ACROSS ERN UTAH TOWARD NW COLORADO AS
THESE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES EJECT NORTHEAST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK VORT MAX IS PROJECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH NORTHERN CO AND SOUTHERN WY MONDAY NIGHT AND THAT SHIFTS
THE FLOW ALOFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST TUESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
BE PUSHED SOUTHEAST INTO TX AND THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME WILL BE
FORCED TO THE WEST OVER AZ AND SRN CA. THIS SHOULD CUT OFF THE
MOISTURE FLOW INTO THE AREA SOMEWHAT...THOUGH IT APPEARS NOT
COMPLETELY. SO TUE AND WED SHOULD SEE A DOWNTURN...BUT NOT DRY
DAYS. BEGINNING THU AND CONTINUING FRI IS LOOKS LIKE THE REMNANT
OF THAT MONSOONAL FLOW WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FROM
WEST TO EAST. AS A RESULT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT SAT JUL 28 2012

LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL AND SW CO AND SOUTHEAST UT FROM
THE SHOWERS THAT PERSISTED OVERNIGHT...WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING.

A MOIST MID-LEVEL MONSOONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY...AT THE SAME TIME THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS ALSO
MOISTENED. THIS WILL ALLOW LOWER CEILINGS AND MORE RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KASE AND KEGE
AFTER 21Z THROUGH THIS EVENING UNDER HEAVIER SHOWERS. THERE SHOULD
BE OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS OVER ALL THE CO AND UT MOUNTAINS
AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE
CHANGE IS SEEN SUNDAY AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION REDEVELOPS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CC/PF
LONG TERM...PF/CC
AVIATION...MC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
411 AM MDT SAT JUL 28 2012

COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-291015-
LOWER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-CENTRAL YAMPA RIVER BASIN-
ROAN AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAUS-ELKHEAD AND PARK MOUNTAINS-
UPPER YAMPA RIVER BASIN-GRAND VALLEY-DEBEQUE TO SILT CORRIDOR-
CENTRAL COLORADO RIVER BASIN-GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS-
GORE AND ELK MOUNTAINS/CENTRAL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
CENTRAL GUNNISON AND UNCOMPAHGRE RIVER BASIN-
WEST ELK AND SAWATCH MOUNTAINS-FLATTOPS-
UPPER GUNNISON RIVER VALLEY-UNCOMPAHGRE PLATEAU AND DALLAS DIVIDE-
NORTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-
PARADOX VALLEY/LOWER DOLORES RIVER-
FOUR CORNERS/UPPER DOLORES RIVER-ANIMAS RIVER BASIN-
SAN JUAN RIVER BASIN-SOUTHEAST UTAH-EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN UINTA BASIN-TAVAPUTS PLATEAU-ARCHES/GRAND FLAT-
LA SAL AND ABAJO MOUNTAINS-CANYONLANDS/NATURAL BRIDGES-
411 AM MDT SAT JUL 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN UTAH AND WESTERN
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH THE HIGHEST AREAL COVERAGE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL COLORADO AND SOUTHEAST UTAH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND
GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE
MONSOON MOISTURE INCREASES. HEAVY RAIN WILL AGAIN BE A POSSIBILITY
WITH STRONGER STORMS.

THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
THEN INCREASE AGAIN OF FRIDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

CUOCO