Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
700 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF...VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT
KGRI FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PRIMARILY A WIND FORECAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING EVENTUALLY SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO SHIFT NORTHERLY
AT THE TERMINAL AROUND 14/03Z...WITH GUSTS TO 16KS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS
LOW...EXPECT WIND TO INCREASE FURTHER DURING THE MORNING HOURS
SUNDAY...GUSTING AS HIGH AS 25KTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON HOURS...BEFORE EVENTUALLY DIMINISHING AROUND SUNSET.

&&

.UPDATE...SENT AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR KANSAS COUNTIES AS WELL AS TO TRIM BACK
POPS A BIT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...NO
ADDITIONAL CHANGES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY. FOCUS AND MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR
THIS PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG WITH NICKEL TO
QUARTER HAIL AND WIND GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.

SHOWERS FROM THIS MORNINGS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...AS A
RESULT...GENERAL CLEARING IN SKY COVER HAS BEEN ONGOING OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA. AT 20Z...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED 70S FOR A
MAJORITY OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH DEWPOINTS TANKING AS DRIER AIR
PUSHES IN. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WAS ALSO CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH 500 MB LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AT 20Z  MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA
CAPPED WITH LITTLE INSTABILITY...HENCE THE LACK OF THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA.

GENERAL CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE MODELS INDICATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BEGIN SHORTLY BEFORE SUNSET FOR THE CWA AS THE CAP BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND THE CUMULUS FIELD INITIATES INTO STORMS.
HOWEVER...MOST OF THESE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WHERE THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE.
ADDITIONALLY...SHEAR VALUES WILL BE STRONGER EAST AND SOUTH EAST OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA AS WELL...JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
WITH THIS BEING SAID...A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD STILL POTENTIALLY
IMPACT THE AREA...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM STOCKTON
KANSAS TO OSCEOLA NEBRASKA...WHERE THE MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND.

MODELS HAVE MAINLY GOOD CONTINUITY AND AGREEMENT. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL GIVE WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE
SHORT-LIVED...HOWEVER AS A SIGNIFICANT WAVE MOVES IN AND DEVELOPS A
CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS COULD
MEAN A COOL DOWN ALONG WITH CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AFTER A PERIOD
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE BUILDING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC WILL ENCOURAGE  THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG JET ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE
TROUGH...WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS A RESULT. WILL ALSO KEEP
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AS THERE IS LITTLE OR NO MUCAPE AROUND.
ANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER TOWARD THE
EAST...CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...AND DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY AS INSOLATION OCCURS AND ENCOURAGES
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...WHICH SHOULD TRAIL OFF TOWARD EVENING. THINGS
BECOME MORE DICEY FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATER ON AS IT IS
UNCERTAIN AS TO HOW THIS CUTOFF SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT AND WILL KEEP
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OUT FOR NOW AS THE AXIS SHOULD SLIDE A BIT
MORE EAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1235 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012/

AVIATION...18Z TAF FOR KGRI. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE REALIZED AT
THE TAF SITE FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE INTRODUCED FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS
THUNDERSTORMS ENTER THE TAF SITE...AND THIS WILL BE EVIDENT WITHIN
A TEMPO GROUP FOR THE TAF. WIND GUSTS COULD BE STRONGER IN THE
VICINITY OF A THUNDERSTORM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ANTICIPATED AT
THE TAF SITE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET AND THIS IS SEEN IN SEVERAL
MODEL OUTPUTS. CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PAST 06Z IS NOT
HIGH...AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED THEREAFTER FOR THE TAF
SITE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...GUERRERO
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
827 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ041-048-049-060>064-072>077-082>087-150130-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-NANCE-MERRICK-POLK-
DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-
CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
827 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA
THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE ON THE STRONG
SIDE...WITH SMALL HAIL AND THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH FAIRLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

NEZ039-040-046-047-150130-
VALLEY-GREELEY-SHERMAN-HOWARD-
827 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A GUSTY NORTHWEST WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH ALONG WITH FAIRLY LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL RESULT IN ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

ROSSI

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