Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
633 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

.AVIATION...00Z KGRI TAF...SHRAS AND TSRAS ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL
REMAIN MAINLY JUST SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS...BUT KEPT THE MENTION OF A VCTS WITH A BRIEF TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...JUST IN CASE A STORM OR TWO DRIFTS
NORTHWARD BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES THIS LINE OF STORMS FURTHER
SOUTH. AFT 15/04Z...EXPECT MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO PERSIST AT
THE TERMINAL OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. WINDS WILL THEN EVENTUALLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 10KTS OUT OF THE EAST AROUND SUNRISE...SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE EXPECTED JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT VALID PERIOD OF
TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE BIG WEATHER
STORY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A SFC COLD FRONT. THIS IS ONE OF THE
BETTER CHANCES WE HAVE SEEN FOR WIDESPREAD APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION
IN QUITE SOME TIME. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS A HIGH
INSTABILITY...LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF OVER 4500
J/KG BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES OF LESS THAN 25 KTS. THE UPPER
LEVEL STEERING WINDS ARE WEAK AND STORM MOTION SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SLOW. IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS MAY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS WITH
THE COMBINATION OF SLOW MOVEMENT AND TRAINING STORMS INCREASING
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR...THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
OUTFLOW DOMINATE WITH NEW THUNDERSTORMS FORMING ALONG INTERACTING
COLD POOLS. THEREFORE...THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS MULTI CELL
CLUSTERS OF THESE LARGELY OUTFLOW DOMINATE THUNDERSTORMS. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST WITH
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THE HIGH
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL DESPITE
THE RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR. HIGH WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEIR PRECIPITATION CORES DESCEND.

FRIDAY...CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY IS
FAIRLY LOW AND MAY DEPEND ON HOW EVERYTHING EVOLVES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRODUCED BY THIS EVENINGS
CONVECTION WILL BE A KEY PLAYER IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST MODELS ARE SHOWING A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS FOR FRIDAY
WITH MOST MODELS SHOWING MORE LOW END ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH LOW END THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERN REMAINS WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FRIDAY
EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHOWING A MESSY SOUTHWEST PATTERN IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...WITH THE MAIN FEATURES BEING HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDED OVER
THE MIDWESTERN CONUS AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS DUG DOWN
INTO FAR SRN CA.  IN BETWEEN...EMBEDDED WAVES LOOK TO BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE HIGH/CENTRAL PLAINS.  MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
EXPAND THE HIGHER POPS IN PLACE ACROSS SC NEB SOUTH INTO NC
KS...WITH MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
INITIALLY DEVELOP TO OUR WEST MOVING IN OVERNIGHT WITH ONE OF THOSE
WEAK WAVES...BUT ALSO AIDED BY A SRLY 30-40KT LLJ NOSING INTO THE
CWA.  GOOD INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...AND
THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONCERN FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS /DEEP LAYER
SHEAR IS STILL ON THE WEAK SIDE/ TO BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE.

DIDNT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRECIP FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY...WITH MODELS DIFFERENCES KEPT THEM IN THE LOW CHANCE
RANGE...WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS IN THE ERN/SRN AREAS.  DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO BE MAINLY TIED TO
LINGERING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST.  IN THE MEANTIME...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER SC CANADA AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTH IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHING A SURFACE FRONT IN FROM THE N/NW.
CURRENT MODELS HAVE THE FRONT ABOUT HALFWAY THROUGH THE CWA BY
MIDDAY AND ON OUR SRN/SERN EDGE BY EVENING...BUT THAT TIMING COULD
BE AFFECTED BY ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING...SO CONFIDENCE
IS NOT THE HIGHEST.  SO LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS SFC BOUNDARY WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AGAIN AIDED BY THE DEVELOPING LLJ /WHICH LOOKS TO BE
MORE IN A SW-NE DIRECTION THAN FRIDAY/.  KEPT THE BETTER POPS FOR
SAT EVENING/NIGHT ACROSS FAR SRN NEB INTO NC KS.  INSTABILITY/SHEAR
PARAMETERS REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR...SO WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CHANCE
FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

DECIDED TO KEEP THE DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY GOING...THOUGH WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE ERN/SERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  UPPER LEVEL
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS GENERALLY ZONAL...AND COULD BE SOME
LINGERING ACTIVITY FROM SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODELS SHOW THE WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WASHING OUT AND MORE SOLID SRLY FLOW
SETTING UP AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT OFF TO THE WEST...AND EXPECT
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES TO SHIFT OFF TO THE E/NE OF THE CWA.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE...WITH HIGHS SAT/SUN GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S
TO NEAR 90 AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

THE FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY...MODELS
NOT SHOWING ANY NOTABLE DISTURBANCES SHIFTING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW.  THE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION IS ZONAL...UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF BROAD TROUGHING...A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
WRN/CENTRAL CANADA.  THINGS LOOK TO POTENTIALLY BECOME MORE
UNSETTLED DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...AS THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST/INTO THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STARTS TO
DIG SOUTH INTO THE PAC NW AND ROCKIES. A SURFACE BOUNDARY MAKES ITS
WAY INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA /IF NOT
FURTHER/...HELPING PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY.  AT THIS POINT THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO COME DURING THE
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...BUT WITH IT BEING THIS FAR
OUT...NO DOUBT THAT TIMING WILL CHANGE...SO KEPT POPS LOW.  FORECAST
HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE NEAR 90/MID 90S RANGE ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN THROUGH MIDWEEK...BASED ON THE ARRIVAL OF THAT
SURFACE FRONT.  CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS FALLING INTO THE NEAR 80/LOW
80S BY THURSDAY.

AVIATION...12Z TAF. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
KGRI TERMINAL AREA. ALONG THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

AVIATION...ROSSI
SHORT TERM...WESELY
LONG TERM...ADO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
338 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
151215-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
338 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA BRINGING
WITH IT A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERAL OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. IN ADDITION...THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF DUMPING TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE
SIDE REMAINS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE
OUTLOOK AREA.  WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY AT THIS POINT IN TIME TO
DETERMINE THE SPECIFIC DETAILS...THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

WESELY/ODER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
645 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

NEZ041-048-150000-
MERRICK NE-NANCE NE-
645 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN NANCE AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN MERRICK COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM CDT...

AT 642 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR GENOA...OR 19 MILES WEST OF COLUMBUS...
MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF EXTREME EASTERN NANCE AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
MERRICK COUNTIES.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV
STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4133 9779 4138 9782 4146 9786 4151 9771
      4149 9769 4140 9770 4140 9760 4139 9759
      4135 9759
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 250DEG 19KT 4140 9770

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
648 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     TSTM WND GST     PHILLIPSBURG AIRPORT    39.74N 99.32W
06/14/2012  M62 MPH          PHILLIPS           KS   AWOS

&&

PFANNKUCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
653 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0648 PM     HAIL             9 N GUIDE ROCK          40.20N 98.33W
06/14/2012  E1.75 INCH       WEBSTER            NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIND GUSTS ESTIMATED TO BE 60 MPH WITH GOLF BALL SIZED
            HAIL ONGOING ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

SROSSI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
706 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             HILDRETH                40.34N 99.05W
06/14/2012  E1.50 INCH       FRANKLIN           NE   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

ODER

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
716 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

NEZ041-047>049-063-150100-
HAMILTON NE-HOWARD NE-MERRICK NE-NANCE NE-POLK NE-
716 PM CDT THU JUN 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN POLK...SOUTHERN NANCE...
CENTRAL MERRICK...SOUTHEASTERN HOWARD AND NORTHEASTERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 800 PM CDT...

AT 715 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CLARKS TO 7 MILES NORTH OF CENTRAL CITY TO ARCHER TO 5 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ARCHER...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...
  CLARKS...
  CENTRAL CITY...
  HORDVILLE...

TORRENTIAL RAIN...WHICH MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES...IS ALSO LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE ON A FLOODED
ROADWAY.

LAT...LON 4125 9747 4114 9766 4100 9793 4108 9840
      4123 9813 4134 9794
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 283DEG 12KT 4126 9792 4121 9801
          4116 9810 4111 9819

ROSSI