Special Weather Statement, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
638 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

.AVIATION...00Z TAF. TOUGH AVIATION FORECAST THIS PERIOD.
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE EN-RODES INTO THE
KGRI AREA LATE THIS EVENING CAUSING MFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT
TIMES. BUT COVERAGE MAY BE LIMITED IN NATURE...AND STILL SOME
CHANCE THEY MISS KGRI ALL TOGETHER. EVENTUALLY...SOME LATE NIGHT
CLEAR WILL TAKE OVER AS ANY STORMS MOVE EAST...AND IFR CONDITIONS
WILL SETTLE. ON SUNDAY...WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND COLD FRONT FROM
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CAUSE VERY STRONG WINDS
TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST...AND
INCREASING MID CLOUDS. MAY BE SHOWER IN THERE BUT TOO EARLY TO
REALLY PUT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE OBVIOUS CONCERN IS THE
EVOLUTION OF SEVERE CONVECTION OVER AT LEAST THE NEXT 6-8 HOURS.
IN SHORT...THE FIRST ROUND OF STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION IS IN THE
PROCESS OF EXITING FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...ESSENTIALLY
BRINGING ROUND 1 TO A CLOSE. THESE STORMS RESULTED IN AT LEAST 3
UNCONFIRMED BRIEF TORNADOES NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE STATE
LINE...ALONG WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.
THE CONCERN NOW SHIFTS BACK TO THE FAR WESTERN-SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...AS CLEARING SKIES ARE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING AREAS CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST NEB DOWN ACROSS WESTERN KS. AS
A RESULT...WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS EVENT IS FAR FROM BEING
OVER.

PARAMETERS FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR
HIGH-END SEVERE...AS THE 110+KT UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK CURRENTLY
MAKING ITS WAY INTO FAR WESTERN KS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.
SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF AT LEAST 50KT...AND
WITH LOW LEVEL 0-1KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT. 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS WELL...WITH 300-400+ M2/S2 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA...WHICH COULD ONLY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. FOLLOWING CONVECTIVE REFLECTIVITY
PROGS FROM LATEST HRRR...ALONG WITH 12Z RUNS OF 4KM WRF-NMM...ALONG
WITH LATEST RUC FIELDS...SIGNIFICANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
WILL CONTINUE SURGING NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE EVENING. HRRR SUGGESTS A COMBINATION OF
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND QUASI LINEAR STORM MODES WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA LIKELY MOST UNDER THE GUN. ALTHOUGH HYDRO ISSUES SEEM TO BE
MINIMAL SO FAR...ANOTHER 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3 OF THE CWA ON TOP OF WHAT FELL EARLIER COULD LEAD TO
SOME ISSUES.

SO FAR...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR KS ZONES THROUGH 00Z IS NOT
PANNING OUT VERY WELL WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTERFERING...AND
ALTHOUGH NEITHER AN IMMEDIATE CANCELLATION OR AN EXTENSION IS NOT
PLANNED AT THIS TIME...WILL PROBABLY SEE STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACTUALLY PICK UP OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO AROUND
987MB IN THE NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHWEST NEB AREA. SPEAKING OF WIND...A
GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY NEED AN ADVISORY
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS STRONG WINDS INITIALLY ARE FROM THE
SOUTH...BUT THEN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. INSERTED A STRONG WIND MENTION INTO THE GRIDS AND HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...BUT WITH EVERYTHING ELSE GOING ON TODAY WILL
DEFER TO MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO PULL THE TRIGGER ON THE NEXT WIND
HEADLINE...WHICH WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE MORE ROBUST THAN THE CURRENT
ONE.

AS FOR STORM CHANCES LATE TONIGHT...ONLY HAVE 20-30 PERCENT
CHANCES POST-06Z...AND ALTHOUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWA
SHOULD BE FREE OF SEVERE WEATHER BY THEN...COULD FORESEE A
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS HANGING ON IN NORTHERN ZONES LATE INTO
THE NIGHT. SHOULD BE A LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SYNOPTIC DRY SLOT
SURGES IN...BUT RAIN SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE CWA
FROM WEST TO EAST WRAPPING AROUND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE
COMBINATION OF ANY RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE STRONG WINDS WILL MAKE
THE FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FEEL COLDER THAN IT
MAY SOUND.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. OVERALL FEW
NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH FORECAST BASED ON
A GENERAL BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS.

STARTING OFF RIGHT AWAY SUNDAY EVENING...A WIND ADVISORY MAY
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST AREAS...BUT
LIKELY NOT BEYOND 03Z AS THE STRONG SURFACE LOW PULLS GRADUALLY
AWAY ACROSS SOUTHERN MN. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...BUT DRY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HEADING INTO MONDAY...LEFT THE MORNING DRY BUT HAVE
20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AS A TRAILING
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OUT OF SOUTHERN SD INTO NORTHERN NEB. NEXT SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ARRIVES IN NORTHEAST COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
AS THE NEXT QUICK MOVING WAVE PASSES BY IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
A FAIRLY ACTIVE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK...AND MAINTAINED 20-30 PERCENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
FROM THURS INTO THURS NIGHT AS THE NEXT WAVE CROSSES THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS LOW. BEYOND THURSDAY
NIGHT...MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AS THERE ARE
SUGGESTIONS OF AT LEAST WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE
PLAINS.

TEMPERATURE WISE THROUGH THE EXTENDED...HAVE MOST DAYS IN THE
LOW-MID 70S FOR HIGHS...EXCEPT FOR COOLER UPPER 50S-LOW 60S ON
MONDAY. AS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...COULD EVENTUALLY NEED TO INSERT
SOME FROST WORDING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND/OR MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE MID-UPPER 30S...ALTHOUGH BREEZES MAY REMAIN JUST STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MUCH DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
314 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
151215-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
314 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONTINUES INTO THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA AND MOVE NORTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH...AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH AND A DRY LINE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ANY SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO AROUND BASEBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 70 MPH...AND OF GREATER CONCERN IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG...LONG TRACKED TORNADOES. THE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES ENCOMPASSES ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS...BUT IS HIGHEST FOR LOCATIONS GENERALLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...INCLUDING NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...WITH MORE THAN ONE
ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE IN ANY GIVEN AREA.

IN ADDITION TO SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES...A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...FOR SUSTAINED
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON SUNDAY...WITH DIRECTION INITIALLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...AND THEN FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES. SUSTAINED SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO AT LEAST 45 MPH ARE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT ACROSS
VARIOUS PARTS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

PFANNKUCH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
613 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TORNADO          1 NE OXFORD             40.26N 99.62W
04/14/2012                   HARLAN             NE   PUBLIC

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN.

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
618 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     TORNADO          4 NNE OXFORD            40.31N 99.60W
04/14/2012                   HARLAN             NE   STORM CHASER

            ROPE TORNADO. SEVERAL REPORTS. EARLY REPORTS OF A GRAIN
            BIN HAVING BEEN DESTROYED.

&&

MORITZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
630 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             6 NNW OXFORD            40.33N 99.68W
04/14/2012  E1.25 INCH       FURNAS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

FAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
649 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1055 AM     HAIL             5 S ORD                 41.53N 98.93W
04/14/2012  E0.75 INCH       VALLEY             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

1055 AM     HAIL             ORD                     41.60N 98.93W
04/14/2012  E0.88 INCH       VALLEY             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL IN ORD.

1151 AM     HAIL             3 N SPALDING            41.73N 98.36W
04/14/2012  E1.75 INCH       GREELEY            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

1154 AM     HAIL             3 N GREELEY             41.59N 98.53W
04/14/2012  E2.00 INCH       GREELEY            NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT OF HEN EGG SIZE HAIL. DAMAGED LAW
            ENFORCEMENT VEHICLE.

1215 PM     HAIL             OSBORNE                 39.44N 98.70W
04/14/2012  E0.88 INCH       OSBORNE            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

1255 PM     HAIL             4 W BURR OAK            39.87N 98.38W
04/14/2012  E0.88 INCH       JEWELL             KS   PUBLIC

0214 PM     TORNADO          1 S TIPTON              39.32N 98.47W
04/14/2012                   MITCHELL           KS   STORM CHASER

            STORM CHASER REPORTED A WRAPPED TORNADO 1.5 MILES SOUTH
            OF TIPTON. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAD A REPORT OF SOME TIN
            TAKEN FROM A BUILDING IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA.

0215 PM     TORNADO          5 W BYRON               40.01N 97.86W
04/14/2012                   NUCKOLLS           NE   AMATEUR RADIO

            BRIEF TORNADO REPORTED ON GROUND 5 MILES WEST OF BYRON.

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GLEN ELDER              39.50N 98.31W
04/14/2012                   MITCHELL           KS   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES REPORTED DOWN IN THE GLEN ELDER RESERVIOR
            AREA.

0230 PM     TORNADO          2 E DESHLER             40.14N 97.69W
04/14/2012                   THAYER             NE   STORM CHASER

            CHASER REPORTED A BRIEF TOUCH DOWN OF A RAIN WRAPPED
            TORNADO. DERIS WAS ALSO KICKING UP IN THE FIELD, WITH
            STRONG INFLOW IN THAT DIRECTION.

0245 PM     TSTM WND GST     BELOIT                  39.47N 98.11W
04/14/2012  E60.00 MPH       MITCHELL           KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0250 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SUPERIOR                40.02N 98.07W
04/14/2012  M2.10 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 N RUSKIN              40.20N 97.87W
04/14/2012  M2.00 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   PUBLIC

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SUPERIOR                40.02N 98.07W
04/14/2012  M2.90 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   PUBLIC

            RAINFALL TOTAL SO FAR AT SUPERIOR AIRPORT.

0330 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N HARDY               40.06N 97.92W
04/14/2012  M2.10 INCH       NUCKOLLS           NE   PUBLIC

0334 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 N ALEXANDRIA          40.26N 97.39W
04/14/2012                   THAYER             NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE REPORTED AT FARMSTEAD NORTH OF ALEXANDRIA. GRAIN
            BIN LOST...TIN FROM A SHED BLOWN OFF...SOME SIDING AND
            WINDOW DAMAGE TO THE HOME AT THE FARMSTEAD. IN THE SAME
            AREA...TWO CENTER PIVOTS WERE DAMAGED OR OVERTURNED.

0457 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BELOIT                  39.47N 98.11W
04/14/2012  M2.17 INCH       MITCHELL           KS   AWOS

            MEASURED AT THE BELOIT AIRPORT.

0537 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 W BEAVER CITY         40.14N 99.88W
04/14/2012                   FURNAS             NE   STORM CHASER

            LESS THAN HALF WAY TO THE GROUND

0550 PM     HAIL             6 NNW OXFORD            40.33N 99.68W
04/14/2012  E1.25 INCH       FURNAS             NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0557 PM     HAIL             10 S BERTRAND           40.38N 99.63W
04/14/2012  E0.75 INCH       PHELPS             NE   COUNTY OFFICIAL

0608 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     2 NNW OXFORD            40.28N 99.65W
04/14/2012                   FURNAS             NE   STORM CHASER

0610 PM     TORNADO          1 NE OXFORD             40.26N 99.62W
04/14/2012                   HARLAN             NE   PUBLIC

            BRIEF TOUCHDOWN.

0616 PM     TORNADO          4 NNE OXFORD            40.31N 99.60W
04/14/2012                   HARLAN             NE   STORM CHASER

            ROPE TORNADO. SEVERAL REPORTS. EARLY REPORTS OF A GRAIN
            BIN HAVING BEEN DESTROYED.

&&

MORITZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
649 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

NEZ060-072-073-150015-
DAWSON NE-GOSPER NE-PHELPS NE-
649 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PHELPS...
NORTHEASTERN GOSPER AND SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM
CDT...

AT 644 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF SMITHFIELD...OR 13 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF LEXINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  OVERTON...

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 240 AND 253.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY....AND A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS
AREA. BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS
LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS....FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4097 9959 4086 9942 4076 9943 4051 9957
      4055 9981
TIME...MOT...LOC 2350Z 212DEG 45KT 4067 9960

PFANNKUCH