Red Flag Warning 25, NWS Hastings, NE

550 
WWUS83 KGID 082337
RFWGID

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
637 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2012

NEZ039>041-046>049-062>064-076-077-090045-
/O.EXP.KGID.FW.W.0025.000000T0000Z-120909T0000Z/
VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-HALL-HAMILTON-
YORK-CLAY-FILLMORE-
637 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 039...040...
041...046...047...048...049...062...063...064...076 AND 077...

WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH
THE PAST HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS A RESULT...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM CDT.

$$

BRYANT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1220 PM CDT SAT SEP 8 2012

.UPDATE...FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS. AT THIS POINT WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FIRE
HEADLINE...CONCERNED THAT CONDITIONS MAY FALL SHORT OF THE
TIME/WIND CRITERIA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON IT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...CANT YET COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN UPGRADE
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF. QUIET WEATHER...LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER AND
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN LYING WITH THE WINDS. PLENTY OF SUN AND INCREASED MIXING
POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES FURTHER ONTO THE PLAINS. SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON OF
15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 ARE EXPECTED...AND THIS
EVENING/THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL BE CLOSER TO 10
MPH...AND THE DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM THE NORTHWEST
THIS MORNING TO THE EAST BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2012/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. IT WILL BE A CLEAR SKY WEEKEND
WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO
AROUND 90.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TODAY WILL
SHIFT EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE CENTERED
OVER NEBRASKA BY EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST TODAY...BUT BECOME SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND THEN
SOUTHERLY BY MONDAY AS A SFC HIGH SLIDES EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

AM NOT EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY MUCH FROM TODAY INTO
SUNDAY...BUT BOTH DAYS WILL BE WARMER THAN WHAT WE EXPERIENCED ON
FRIDAY. FAIRLY GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ON MONDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS RIGHT OVERHEAD WILL SUPPORT A HOT DAY WITH HIGHS AROUND
90. THE COMBINATION OF SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25
PERCENT WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD
WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT AND GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY DURING THIS PERIOD AS FORECAST HIGHS
WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES FOR MOST OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BEFORE THE
TRANSITION OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION AND A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
EXPERIENCED ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE OBSERVED ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE AROUND
78 TO 82 DEGREES...AND FORECAST HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE
GOING TO BE LOWER TO MID 70S. TO NO SURPRISE...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
HAVE A SIMILAR OUTCOME THIS WEEK.

A TRAILING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING TROUGH OVER
CANADA WILL EXTEND DOWN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS COULD START
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IF
ENOUGH MOISTURE CAN BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. THE EC AND THE GFS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL JET
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER...GUIDANCE
IS SUGGESTING VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AT THIS TIME AS A DRY AIRMASS IS
PROGGED TO SIT OVER THE REGION UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT FORECAST DUE TO A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT AND VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY AT BEST. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK WAVE EJECTS OFF
THE ROCKIES AND SHOULD INTERACT WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS WHERE THE EC AND AND GFS START TO DIFFER.
THE EC HAS PRECIPITATION CHANCES STICKING AROUND LONGER THAN THE
GFS. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE TWO MODELS PREDICTING DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS TO THE SECONDARY WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THE GFS
HAS A MORE SOUTHERN VORTICITY MAX AND HAS PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT
OF THE CWA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE EC HAS PRECIPITATION STICKING
AROUND UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME PRECIPITATION
STICKING AROUND.

NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL NEED TO BE WATCH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION THESE CHANCES FOR
TUESDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THRESHOLD AS
20 TO 25 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST
ACROSS THE CWA. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO WARRANT MENTIONING IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES DECREASE IN FUTURE ANALYSIS. WILL NOT MENTION FIRE WEATHER
DANGER IN THE HWO FOR TUESDAY AT THIS POINT...BUT IT SHOULD BE
MONITORED CLOSER AS NEXT WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...ADO
SHORT...WESELY
LONG...GUERRERO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
730 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2012

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
091200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
730 AM CDT SAT SEP 8 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND AT TIMES GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

HOT...WINDY AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)